Archive for May, 2012

Maryland Solar Bills S.B. 791 and H.B. 1187 Signed Into Law

Posted May 22nd, 2012 by SRECTrade.

Today, Maryland Solar Bills S.B. 791 and H.B. 1187 were signed into law by Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.

The passage of these bills will increase the near term Solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements and reach the state’s 2% solar target two years ahead of the original RPS schedule; compliance year 2020 instead of 2022. The RPS requirements will increase beginning in the 2013 compliance year (January 2013 – December 2013).

Estimates show that the 2013 RPS increase equates to approximately 34,150 more SRECs required in 2013 under the new bills. This represents an additional 28.5 MW of solar capacity required, assuming all 2013 RPS requirements are meet using only 2013 vintage SRECs. After 2013, the RPS requirements continue to increase over the old goals, with some of the largest requirement increases estimated to begin in 2016 and onward.

As of the April 2012 SRECTrade Solar Capacity Update, total eligible Maryland solar capacity reached 45.6 MW. Based on projects registered in PJM GATS, over the last twelve months average MW capacity added per month has been 2.6 MW. The 2012 compliance year requires approximately 67,310 SRECs to be retired. As of May 11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 10,200 MD2012 SRECs. Under the new requirements, it is estimated that the MD2013 Solar RPS will require 170,800 SRECs, the equivalent of 142.3 MW operational all year long assuming only 2013 vintage SRECs are utilized to meet the state’s SREC targets.

Last minute push to revive Pennsylvania HB 1580

Posted May 21st, 2012 by SRECTrade.

**Update: As of this writing (Tuesday, June 12th) HB 1580 has not gone up for vote. However, the PA legislator extended the legislation session through the end of June, allowing for some hope that with enough grassroots pressure from supporters of the PA solar industry the bill will go up for vote. PASEIA encourages supporters of HB 1580 to continue to call into the offices of the PA House leadership. The applicable phone numbers are listed below. 

A coalition of solar industry groups led by PASEIA, SEIA, PennFuture and Vote Solar are making one last push to revive Pennsylvania House Bill (HB) 1580 before the close of the work week on Friday, 5/25. HB 1580 was first introduced in October 2011 by Rep. Chris Ross (R-Chester) as a fix for what many in the PA solar industry view as an SREC market with prices trading at unsustainable levels. The bill’s core proposal is to move forward the Pennsylvania SREC requirement by three years – effectively accelerating SREC requirements in an attempt to stabilize the market. A hearing was held in the Pennsylvania House Consumer Affairs Committee in January 2012 and 108 (enough to pass the bill in the House) committed to vote for the bill if it passed out of committee. Lobbyists were also able to garner a substantial amount of support in the Senate.

Why hasn’t the bill passed yet?

Despite the January hearing on HB 1580 the bill was never put up for vote in the House Consumer Affairs Committee. The decision to do so is the responsibility of Committee Chair Rep. Bob Godshall (R-Montgomery) who has taken counsel from stakeholders both for and against the bill.  The coalition of groups supporting HB 1580 emphasize in their communication with stakeholders that HB 1580 is meant to provide support for jobs created by the nascent Pennsylvania solar industry at little to no additional cost to ratepayers. However, the Pennsylvania Chamber of Commerce along along with other groups representing natural gas and other interests are opposed to the bill.  Furthermore, strong pressure for and against the bill has made it a tough topic to address amid the latest election cycle.

Another push

Pennsylvania stakeholders that support HB 1580 have the option to lobby key members of the Pennsylvania legislator to get the bill put up for vote. HB 1580 advocates are encouraged to call the following three members of the PA House leadership.

Trade-offs Begin – NJ S1925 Update

Posted May 18th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

For a PDF copy of this post click here.

Yesterday, the Senate Environment and Energy Committee passed S1925 out of committee. Coming out of the session, the bill was revised to increase the Solar Renewable Portfolio (RPS) % requirements and decrease the Solar Alternative Compliance (SACP) schedule. Next, the bill will move on to a second reading in the Senate. The charts below demonstrate the difference between the original and revised versions of S1925.

How Does This Impact New Jersey’s Future SREC Requirements?

In our last research note on S1925, we took a look at a summary of the bill and provided analysis on how it could impact the New Jersey SREC market. Given the revision of the Solar RPS % requirements, below is an update to the original analysis.

The table below shows the SREC quantities required under the current RPS versus the estimates required under the revised version of S1925. Although S1925 increases the RPS requirements in the near term, the % requirements estimate a decrease vs. the current requirements beginning in 2024.

While the revised version of S1925 takes the steps needed to prop up the NJ SREC market, a closer look suggests that even if this bill comes to fruition the market could continue to be oversupplied. The table below shows the current RPS and revised S1925 requirements through 2017. Both scenarios demonstrate what the markets look like given estimates of installed capacity through April 30, 2012, and assume that excess, eligible SRECs from prior periods are used to meet the compliance obligations in the current period. Under the current RPS requirements, assuming no new build, the market is oversupplied through energy year 2016. Applying these same figures to the estimated SRECs required if the revised version of S1925 is implemented, the market is short approximately 411,800 SRECs in 2014 (the equivalent of approximately 343.2 MW operational all year long).

Although the requirements under the current installed capacity and proposed changes under the revised version of S1925 put the market at under supply with no new build, the likelihood of that is minimal. Over the last twelve months (LTM), the average MW installed per month has been 36.0 MW. That figure over the last 6 months has reached 44.9 MW/month. Given the recent historic build rates, we have analyzed 3 different scenarios in which the following cases are assumed:

1) Case 1 – shows half of the LTM average MW added per month throughout the course of the annual forecast periods;

2) Case 2 – shows the LTM average MW added per month remains the same throughout the annual forecast periods;

3) Case 3 – shows 1.5x the LTM average MW added per month throughout the annual forecast periods.

Note, for the purpose of obtaining an ending balance of MW capacity as of May 31, 2012, the table below assumes another 36.0 MW is added in the month of May 2012.

Under the revised version of S1925, the market is less oversupplied or under supplied depending on the case displayed above. One of the main differences between the table above an our original estimates is that if installations slow down to half of the LTM monthly average rate, Case 1, the market could be under supplied as early as 2015. It is important to note that each case assumes all excess, eligible SRECs from the prior period are utilized to meet the current year RPS requirements.

As demonstrated in the scenario analysis, the market would need to substantially slow down current monthly build rates to allow supply to come in line with demand in the future RPS compliance periods. The revised version of S1925 attempts to lessen the impact of oversupply, but even under the updated table above, all three cases show oversupply through at least 2014. Additionally, the trade off of an increased Solar RPS % came at the cost of reducing the SACP. Thus, although the NJ solar industry can continue to build projects at a reduced rate, new installs will have to be underwritten with the understanding that less value will be derived from SRECs.

Note: Percentage based SREC requirements have been forecast based on EIA Report updated 11/15/11 “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh per MW in New Jersey.

Last Chance to Sell MA 2011 SRECs

Posted May 18th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

On July 15, 2012 the first 2012 vintage MA SRECs will be minted. To date, all transactions of MA SRECs in 2012 have been for 2011 vintage SRECs. Short of something unanticipated the 2011 market will remain under-supplied and MA 2011 SRECs (if they have not yet been sold) should continue to sell close to SACP pricing.

The DOER recently issued a press release reminding SREC sellers that they have until June 15th to sell SRECs on the open market. Any SRECs not sold on the open market will need to be placed in the DOER’s “last chance” Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction and put up for the sale at the mandated $300 per SREC offer. Remaining SRECs not placed in the auction will be automatically retired and will not be eligible for future transactions.

SRECs transacted through SRECTrade have consistently sold for $540 per SREC. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you are a seller with unsold Massachusetts SRECs.  For a history of MA SREC pricing in the SRECTrade auctions click here and scroll to the bottom of the page.

Selling SRECs from Solar Hot Water Systems

Posted May 18th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

It’s been a while since we last updated our readers on the fundamentals of SRECs for solar hot water (SHW) systems. Currently two markets, Washington DC and Maryland, allow for SRECs sold from solar hot water systems. There have been proposals to create SREC markets for SHW in other markets, but no other states have concrete plans to do so.

Key concepts:

SRECs from SHW systems are calculated by using the annual energy estimate provided by the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation (SRCC) OG- 300 Water Heating System Rating or by converting BTUs to kW-hr equivalents from BTU meters.  BTU meter readings are provided directly to the tracking registry (PJM GATS) in BTU’s and PJM GATS converts the BTUs into kilowatts.  Calculate kW-hr equivalents by multiplying system BTUs by .000293 and 1,000 kW-hrs = 1 SREC.

Maryland SHW Registration Rules

    • Must be located in MD
    • Only systems commissioned with passing plumbing inspections issued after June 1, 2011 or later are eligible
    • Single dwelling residential systems are capped at 5 SRECs per year
    • Commercial systems are not capped
    • SHW systems cannot be used for heating a pool or hot tub
    • Systems must be certified by the SRCC OG-300 reporting protocol or have an International Organization of Metrology (OIML) compliant meter
    • SHW modules must be SRCC OG-100 compliant

District of Columbia SHW Registration Rules

    • Must be located in DC
    • Residential system must be SRCC OG-300 certified
    • Commercial systems producing >10,000 kW-hr equivalents must be SRCC OG-100 certified and have an OIML compliant meter
    • Commercial systems producing <10,000 kW-hr equivalents must be SRCC OG-100 certified, have an OIML meter or be certified to the SRCC OG-300 reporting protocol

If you’d like to utilize SRECTrade to monetize SRECs produced from SHW systems in either MD of DC please fill out this application and follow the directions on the form.

Proposed New Jersey Solar Bill May Not Solve SREC Woes

Posted May 16th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

For a PDF copy of this post click here.

Introduction

Senators Bob Smith and Stephen Sweeny recently introduced New Jersey Senate Bill 1925. The bill proposes to amend New Jersey’s current Solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements in attempt to help stabilize the oversupplied SREC market. The bill is currently in draft form and is scheduled to be heard by the New Jersey Environment and Energy Committee on Thursday, May 17, 2012.

Based on the information presented below, the proposed version of S1925, while increasing the near term Solar RPS requirements, will likely still leave the market oversupplied. This note summarizes the key points in the draft legislation and quantifies the near term and long term impacts it would have on the SREC market if passed into law.

Summary of S1925

Senate Bill 1925 proposes a few substantial changes that would influence New Jersey’s RPS requirements beginning in the 2014 compliance year (June 1, 2013 – May 31, 2014). The chart below demonstrates the change from a fixed SREC requirement under the current RPS to a % based Solar requirement under S1925. The Solar RPS requirements would change beginning in the 2014 compliance year, with a requirement of 1.832% increasing to 3.730% by the 2028 energy year.

Additionally, the table below shows the SREC quantities required under the current RPS versus the estimates required under S1925. While S1925 increases the RPS requirements in the near term, the % requirements estimate a decrease vs. the current requirements beginning in 2023.

Beyond the proposed changes in SREC requirements, S1925 would implement a new fixed Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP) schedule. The schedule reduces the SACP beginning in 2014 to $350/SREC declining to $252/SREC in 2028. The implementation of this schedule will cap SRECs at a price of $350 in 2014 and decrease in future periods. The table below demonstrates the proposed schedule as compared to the current RPS requirements.

In addition to S1925’s proposed SREC and SACP changes, the bill also addresses a few other areas:

1) An SREC’s useful life would extend from 3 to 5 years; giving it eligibility in the year in which it is issued and the following four energy years.

2) During 2014, 2015, and 2016, approved non-net metered grid supply projects cannot exceed more than 100 MW in total aggregated capacity each year. Grid supply projects located on brownfields are not limited under this stipulation. After 2016, the approval of grid supply projects would be subject to review by the Board of Public Utilities (BPU).

3) Solar RPS requirements would automatically increase by 20% for the remainder of the schedule in the event that the following two conditions are met: 1) the number of SRECs generated meets or exceeds the requirement for three consecutive reporting years, beginning with energy year 2014 and 2) the price for SRECs purchased by entities with renewable energy portfolio standards obligations in each of the same three consecutive reporting years is less than the current SREC price in the year prior to the three consecutive reporting years (i.e. if the price in 2014, 2015, and 2016 is less than the 2013 price and the number of SRECs exceeds the requirement in each of these years, the 20% increase in the RPS will be triggered).

What Does This Mean for the NJ SREC Market?

While S1925 takes the steps needed to prop up the NJ SREC market, a closer look at the numbers suggest that even if this bill comes to fruition the market could continue to be oversupplied. The table below shows the current and proposed S1925 RPS requirements through 2017. Both scenarios demonstrate what the markets look like given estimates of installed capacity through April 30, 2012, and assume that excess, eligible SRECs from prior periods are used to meet the compliance obligations in the current period. Under the current RPS requirements, assuming no new build, the market is oversupplied through energy year 2016. Applying these same figures to the estimated SRECs required if S1925 is implemented, the market is short approximately 118,500 SRECs in 2014 (the equivalent of approximately 98.8 MW operational all year long).

Although the requirements under the current installed capacity and proposed changes under S1925 put the market at under supply with no new build, the likelihood of that is minimal. Over the last twelve months (LTM), the average MW installed per month has been 36.0 MW. That figure over the last 6 months has reached 44.9 MW/month. Given the recent historic build rates, we have analyzed 3 different scenarios in which the following cases are assumed:

1) Case 1 – shows half of the LTM average MW added per month throughout the course of the annual forecast periods;

2) Case 2 – shows the LTM average MW added per month remains the same throughout the annual forecast periods;

3) Case 3 – shows 1.5x the LTM average MW added per month throughout the annual forecast periods.

Note, for the purpose of obtaining an ending balance of MW capacity as of May 31, 2012, the table below assumes another 36.0 MW is added in the month of May 2012.

In each of the 3 cases presented above, the market ends up in oversupply through at least 2016. It is important to note that each case assumes all excess, eligible SRECs from the prior period are utilized to meet the current year RPS requirements.

As demonstrated in the scenario analysis, the market would need to substantially slow down current monthly build rates to allow supply to come in line with demand in the future RPS compliance periods. It‘s unlikely that build rates will decline fast enough to protect from future oversupply. This bill does not allow for an increase in build rates (it requires a decrease) and cannot be used as a justification for an increase in PV installation growth.

Reaching the install rates shown in Case 1 (approx. 18 MW/month) should be within reach despite the restrictions put on grid supply projects. Additionally, the potential introduction of new EDC SREC programs, as well as historic build rates in the residential and commercial sectors, will also contribute to meeting the levels outlined in Case 1. Clearly, SREC pricing and availability of forward contracts to support new project development will impact future build rates, but even in markets with an oversupply of solar (i.e. PA), projects continue to be built without much regard for the current SREC environment.

How Does this Impact the 2012 and 2013 energy years?

Under the current draft of S1925, the RPS requirements would be unaffected in 2012 and 2013. The 2012 generation period will come to a close at the end of May 2012. Compliance buyers will have until approximately the end of September to wrap up their purchases before finalizing RPS reports with the BPU. As it currently stands, we estimate the NJ2012 market to see an excess of approximately 180,000 SRECs. Recent over the counter trading has increased to levels between $125 and $135/SREC, up from the last SRECTrade auction clearing price at just above $115/SREC.

The Electric Distribution Companies (EDCs), or regulated utilities, in NJ will be holding an auction on Thursday, May 17, 2012. Recent announcements show that as many as 33,000 NJ2012 SRECs will be available for sale during this auction. Given these volumes, 2012 demand may be reduced after this auction.

In addition to the 2012 energy year, the 2013 compliance period is fundamentally oversupplied. Current estimates show the 2013 period will see an excess of approximately 496,000 SRECs. This estimate takes into consideration the excess SRECs from 2012 and installed capacity estimates through April 2012. The 2013 forward market has recently traded above the 2012 vintage, but given the fundamental oversupply it is likely pricing will trend downward throughout the 2013 compliance period beginning June 1, 2012 (note the first 2013 vintage SRECs will not be issued in GATS and available for delivery until the end of July 2012).

SRECTrade will continue to keep a close eye on the S1925 legislative process as it makes its way through the Senate Environment and Energy Committee and the remaining requirements needed before it can be signed into law.

Note: Percentage based SREC requirements have been forecast based on EIA Report updated 11/15/11 “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh per MW in New Jersey.

Solar Capacity in the SREC States – April 2012

Posted May 13th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: April 2012

The following post outlines the megawatts of solar capacity certified and/or registered to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets SRECTrade currently serves.

A PDF copy of this table can be found here.

PJM Eligible Systems

As of this writing, there were 24,784 solar PV and 316 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Of these eligible systems, 147 (0.59%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which 14 systems are greater than 5 MW. The largest system, the PSE&G utility pole mount project located in New Jersey, is 25.1 MW, and the second largest, located in New Jersey is 12.5 MW. The third largest system, at 12 MW, is located in Ohio.

Delaware: The reporting year 2011-12 (6/1/11 – 5/31/12) requirement for DE equates to approximately 23,700 SRECs being retired. If all retired SRECs were of DE2011-12 vintage, approximately 19.8 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of May 7, 2012, 28.0 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create DE SRECs in PJM GATS. 11.2 MW of the 28.0 MW currently eligible is from the Dover Sun Park project developed by LS Power. In the 2011-12 compliance year, Delmarva Power has contracted to purchase 9,846 SRECs from the project, of which 7,000 are being held by the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) until 2015-16*. Additionally, the DE SREC Pilot Program solicitation recently closed its first solicitation. As of May 11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 23,400 DE2011-12 vintage SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior eligible periods may also impact the market should there be a demand for these older vintage SRECs.

Maryland: The end of February marked the first issuance period of MD2012 SRECs in PJM GATS. As of May 7, 2012, 45.6 MW of MD sited solar capacity was registered to create MD eligible SRECs. 2012 Solar RPS requirements are estimated at 56.1 MW or approximately 67,310 SRECs. The MD Senate recently passed legislation to pull forward the RPS requirements. As of May 11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 10,200 MD2012 SRECs. Additionally, all out of state MD systems are no longer eligible to produce MD certified SRECs and their MD certification numbers have been removed from their systems in PJM GATS. Lastly, there are MD sited SRECs available from prior eligible periods, which could be utilized for compliance needs in 2012.

New Jersey: The New Jersey 2012 reporting year requires 442,000 SRECs to be retired. This equates to approximately 368 MW of capacity being operational all year long, assuming all requirements were met with current vintage year SRECs. As of May 7, 2012, 700.2 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create NJ SRECs in PJM GATS. While this figure represents all projects registered in GATS, there are recently installed projects awaiting issuance of a New Jersey state certification number. This delay results in a portion of installed projects not yet represented in the 700.2 MW figure. As of March 31, 2012 the NJ Office of Clean Energy (NJ OCE) reported that 730.3 MW of solar had been installed in NJ. Additionally, estimates through April 2012 show almost 760 MW of total installed capacity. For additional information on the status of the NJ market and information on the expected legislation to adjust the Solar RPS see the following: New Jersey SREC Market Update May 2012. As of May 11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 455,500 NJ2012 SRECs. This figure surpasses the current 2012 compliance year requirement of 442,000 SRECs.

Ohio: Ohio’s 2012 RPS solar target requires approximately 95,300 SRECs to be retired by the end of the compliance period. At least 50% of the SREC requirement must come from systems sited in the state. As of May 7, 2012, 46.8 MW of in-state capacity and 87.3 MW of out-of-state capacity were eligible to generate OH SRECs. A large increase of in state capacity recently came from a 9.8 MW project sited at the Campbell Soup facility in Napoleon, OH. As of May 11, 2012, GATS issued approximately 9,940 in-state and 20,170 out-of-state OH2012 eligible SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior years are also eligible for the current compliance period, which may impact the current year’s requirements.

Pennsylvania: The reporting year 2012 requirement for PA equates to retiring approximately 49,450 eligible SRECs. If all compliance obligations were met using 2012 vintage SRECs, approximately 41.2 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of May 7, 2012, 203.1 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create PA compliant SRECs. As of May 11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 144,900 PA2012 SRECs. Given the oversupply during previous reporting years, there are also SRECs from the 2010 and 2011 reporting years eligible for the PA2012 compliance period.

Washington, DC: DC’s 2012 RPS amended solar target requires approximately 61,180 SRECs to be retired by the end of the compliance period. The figures displayed above demonstrate the capacity of systems eligible to create DC SRECs moving forward. These SREC and capacity figures do not take into consideration the amount of electricity delivered into the district that may be exempt from complying with the Distributed Generation Amendment Act increases, considering some electricity contracts may have been signed prior to the amendment’s implementation. As of May 7, 2012, 23.9 MW of capacity was eligible to generate DC SRECs. Additionally, as of May 11, 2012, GATS reported the issuance of approximately 5,800 DC2012 eligible SRECs. SRECs from prior years are also eligible for the current compliance period, which may impact the current year’s requirements.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of May 7, 2012, there were 1,807 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 1,775 operational and 32 not operational. Total qualified capacity is 72.2 MW, 59.5 of which is operational and 12.7 MW not operational. Electricity suppliers providing power to the state need to acquire approximately 62,900 and 73,400 SRECs in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Through the Q4 2011 issuance period (4/15/12), 26,598 SRECs have been minted. Additionally, 20,421 MWh have been reported to the PTS during January – April 2012. Given the SRECs issued through Q4 2011, the 2011 compliance period is short by approximately 36,302. The next issuance period for Q1 2012 SRECs will be on July 15, 2012.

For additional analysis on the current state of the MA SREC market and an outlook on 2012 see the following post published on March 16, 2012: Massachusetts SREC Market Update – March 2012

Capacity Summary By State

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in-state and out-of-state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out of State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state with only that particular compliance period vintage. For example, New Jersey needs approximately 368 MW online for the entire 2012 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement with 2012 vintage SRECs only. SRECs still available from prior eligible periods can also impact the Solar RPS requirements. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

*Source: State of Delaware Pilot Program For the Procurement of Solar Renewable Energy Credits: Recommendations of the Renewable Energy Taskforce

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based based on EIA Report updated 11/15/11 “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

New Jersey SREC Update May 2012

Posted May 7th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

New Jersey SRECs recently traded at $115.16 per SREC in SRECTrade’s May 2012 auction. This follows the dramatic decline in prices that the New Jersey SREC market has experienced since the beginning of the 2012 energy year. Click here for historic data on SRECTrade’s New Jersey SREC market auction pricing.

What’s going on?

The New Jersey SREC market is oversupplied. The state’s  Solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets a fixed number of megawatt hours (MW-hrs) needed to be purchased by electricity suppliers each compliance period. A MW-hr is the equivalent of one SREC, so in NJ we discuss the SREC market both in terms of total capacity installed in MW and total number of SRECs available each year. Under the current RPS, significantly more solar has been installed than is necessary to meet the state’s RPS goals for the next several years.

The 2012 reporting year (June 1, 2011 – May 31, 2012) requires 442,000 SRECs. Our March 2012 capacity analysis (scroll down to see the NJ numbers) shows that as of the beginning of April, total registered installed capacity was 670.9 MW with 386,500 SRECs issued. More recent data from the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy shows the installed capacity, as of March 31, 2012, at 730.3 MW. Additionally, approximately 455,000 SRECs have been issued in GATS from solar PV generation through March 2012. This figure, demonstrates that as of the last issuance period, there are more than enough SRECs available in the market to meet the 2012 reporting year requirement of 442,000 SRECs. The Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS) is the organization that all New Jersey PV systems must register with in order to create and transact SRECs.

Another factor is that SREC issuance tends to follow a natural lag due to missing meter reading submissions and delays registering systems with GATS.  Given our experience with this data, it’s reasonable to expect a further bump in SREC numbers through March 2012. Also, April and May 2012 SRECs will be issued at the end of May and June, respectively, and will also add to this year’s total SREC issuance figures.

The additional volume to be issued allows us to project that the market is likely 40% to 50% oversupplied for the 2012 energy year. Lastly, when analyzing the 2013 through 2015 energy year current RPS requirements, the figures show that the market will be oversupplied when taking into consideration eligible excess SRECs rolled forward from prior years and the existing amount of installed capacity as of 3/31/12 currently eligible to produce SRECs. The table below demonstrates this in more detail:

Proposals to stabilize the SREC market

Industry stakeholders are working with the New Jersey legislature to come up with a way to stabilize the NJ SREC market. A NJBiz.com article dated May 3rd, mentions a possible bill proposal by Sen. Bob Smith (D-Piscataway), Chairman of the Senate Environment Committee, that would accelerate New Jersey’s solar goals while reducing how much buyers would need to pay for their SRECs if they don’t have enough SRECs in their portfolios at the end of each energy year.

To date, no bill has been made publicly available. Based on the information provided on the NJ State Legislature website, it appears the bill will be slated under the number S1925. The current description listed includes the following, “Revises certain solar renewable energy programs and requirements; provides for aggregating net metering of Class I renewable energy production on certain contiguous and non-contiguous properties owned by local government units and school districts.”

Until then, we must speculate on what the final contents of the bill will be.  An additional consideration is that even if a bill is passed by the NJ legislature, the bill will likely not go into effect until the 2014 energy year which starts in June 2013.