Archive for September, 2013

SRECTrade Markets Report: August 2013

Posted September 13th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: August 2013

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets SRECTrade serves. All PJM data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted. All MA data is based on the information provided by the DOER as of the date noted. This analysis does not include projects that are not yet registered and certified with the entities noted herein.

A PDF copy of this table can be found here.

August Capacity

Overview of PJM Eligible Systems

As of September 9, 2013 there were 37,481 solar PV and 775 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Of these, 252 (0.66%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater. Twenty-seven of these projects have a nameplate capacity of 5 MW or greater (unchanged from the last few months). New Jersey continues to host most of the larger scale facilities, claiming home to 63.0% of the projects and 17 of the 27 facilities, that are equal to or greater than 5 MW. Also unchanged for several months the three largest projects are a 29.1 MW FirstSolar project in MD, a 25.1 MW PSE&G utility pole mount project located in NJ, and the 16.1 MW Mount St. Mary’s project in MD.

NJ Office of Clean Energy Estimated Installed Capacity Through 8/31/13: On September 8, 2013, the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy announced total installed solar capacity reached 1,114.3 MW; an increase of approximately 8.4 MW over June’s total capacity.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of August 21, 2013, there were 7,835 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 7,522 operational and 313 not operational. Total qualified capacity is 689.9 MW; 254.5 MW of which is operational and 435.4 MW is not operational under the current, SREC I program.  Not operational, qualified projects over 100 kW in size must demonstrate at 50% completion by 12/31/2013 in order to remain qualified. Note, that these totals should adjust as projects lower than 100 kW in capacity become qualified throughout the year. Projects lower than 100 kW only need to demonstrate interconnection by 12/31/2013, whereas projects greater 100 kW in capacity must have submitted application paperwork and met certain requirements by July 5, 2013. Fore more information refer to our blog posts covering the current SREC program.

How to Interpret This Table

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in-state and out-of-state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out-of-State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state with only that particular compliance period vintage. For example, New Jersey needed approximately 496.7 MW online for the entire 2013 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement with 2013 vintage SRECs only. SRECs still available from prior eligible periods can also impact the Solar RPS requirements. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider” updated 10/1/12. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.


September 2013 Auction Results

Posted September 13th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s September 2013 SREC Auction closed on 9/06/13. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets sold in the auction.

September SREC Prices SREC Vintage Year
State 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Delaware $33.00
Maryland $111.00 $120.01 $130.00
Massachusetts $241.01
New Jersey $125.00 $130.01 $134.01
Ohio In-State $41.00
Ohio Out-of-State
Pennsylvania $9.00 $13.26
Washington, DC $480.00 $480.00 $480.00

*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year. For example, current vintage “2014” SRECs are generated beginning in June of 2013.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease. “-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no SRECs available for sale in that vintage or there were no matching bids and offers to determine a clearing price.

State Market Observations:

Delaware: Current vintage DE SRECs traded at $33/SREC- up from $25 in the previous auction. The primary buyer for DE SRECs is Delmarva Power and Light (DPL) and most SRECs are sold through DPL’s SRECDelaware program which allows SREC asset owners to submit competitive applications in order to obtain 20 year SREC contracts. There continues to be limited need for SRECs outside of DPL’s program and demand outside the procurement program is expected to decrease over time.

Maryland: Just as with the August auction all eligible MD SREC vintages sold in the September auction. As SRECs age they tend to become less valuable and demand for older vintages tends to decrease.  MD2011s, MD2012s and MD2013s  transacted at $111.00, $120.01, and $130.00/SREC in the September auction.

Massachusetts: The September SRECTrade auction cleared 2013 vintage SRECs at $241.01.  For the latest info on the MA market read our MA blog posts.

New Jersey:  NJ2012,  NJ2013, and NJ2014 SRECs traded up to $125.00, $130.01, and $134.01/SREC, respectively. These prices are slightly higher than last month’s auction. While the NJ SREC market remains fundamentally over-supplied build rates have decreased. For a more detailed overview on pricing and supply and demand dynamics, please see our recent webinar.

Ohio: No SRECs transacted in the OH Adjacent market, although pricing tends to mimic the PA SREC market when transactions do occur. Both markets are severely over-supplied.  OH2013 sited SRECs traded at $41, a price in line with previous auctions.

Pennsylvania: PA2011s and PA2012s did not transact in the September auction.  PA2013s and PA2014s traded at $9.00 and $13.26/SREC respectively. Severe SREC oversupply keeps pricing low and reduces buyer incentive to purchase older vintage SRECs. 

Washington, DC: DC SREC pricing continues to experience high transaction values relative to the $500 SACP. DC2011, DC2012, and 2013 vintage SRECs traded at $480.00/SREC- the same as with the August auction. It is expected the market will continue to experience under supply into the 2013 trading year.

For historical auction pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction for all SREC markets closes on Tuesday, October 15th at 5 p.m. ET.

NJ Market Update recording posted

Posted September 12th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade recorded a NJ Market Update webinar on September 12, 2013. To watch the webinar click on the image below.