Archive for July, 2016

MA DOER Announces Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction Results

Posted July 29th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Today, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced that both of the 2015 Solar Carve-out (SREC-I) and Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II) auctions have fully cleared in the first round.

Preliminary results for the SREC-I auction included 41 unique bidders submitting a total bid volume of 49,886 – more than sufficient demand to clear the available auction volume of 1,898 SRECs. Similarly, the results for the SREC-II auction included 9 unique bidders submitting a total bid volume of 112,252, which cleared the available auction volume of 67,046 SREC-IIs.

SCCA Auction Results3

The DOER and EnerNOC continue to certify and finalize the auction results, and will publicize more details on the final results on the SREC-I and SREC-II auction webpages next week.

Mayor Bowser Signs D.C. RPS Bill

Posted July 26th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser hosted a press conference yesterday to sign the Renewable Portfolio Standard Expansion Act of 2016. As enacted, B21-0560 raises the renewable portfolio and solar requirements to 50% and 5% by the year 2032, respectively, and adds waste heat from combined and sanitary sewage systems and effluence from wastewater treatment to the list of Tier 1 renewable sources. In addition, the bill increases financial penalties for electricity suppliers who fail to comply with the annual renewable energy portfolio standard requirements. This financial penalty is known as the Alternative Compliance Payment, or ACP. Finally, the bill establishes a program within the Department of Energy and the Environment to assist low-income homeowners with installing solar systems on their homes.

Councilmember Cheh introduced the bill earlier this year, and the Council unanimously passed the bill in late June. The expanded RPS not only increases access to clean energy for D.C. residents, but establishes a long-term pipeline for green jobs and businesses by raising demand for Tier 1 RECs and SRECs. The increased demand will incentivize the continued growth of D.C.’s solar industry, which has grown by 170% over the last year. The chart below summarizes the new RPS and Solar Carve-out schedule by requirement year.
omgomg

The total RPS requirement must be met by Tier 1 Renewable Sources, which includes the new sources added by the Expansion Act. In 2032 and thereafter, the District’s RPS will be set at 50% with a 5% solar carve-out. Please note that, although the SACP Schedule is changing for the 2017+ years from the current schedule, the RPS schedule for years 2017-2023 is unchanged under the Expansion Act. It is not until years 2024 and onward that the RPS requirements are changed by this new law.

Mayor Bowser is confident that the RPS Expansion Act will enable the District’s diverse populations to benefit from solar in a meaningful way. Speaking at her press conference, she said that the District “…will serve 100,000 low-income households by 2032—that’s more than 6,000 homes per year, and we’ll reduce their electricity bills by 50%, as a result. We’ll be creating at least 100 green  jobs in the first year with that number growing every year through 2032. That means reducing carbon emissions, lowering residents’ energy bills, and providing pathways to the middle class through the burgeoning marketplace of clean energy – all at the same time.”

The newly signed legislation is slated to become effective after the Congressional review period.

MA DOER Announces Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation

Posted July 25th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Friday, July 22, 2016, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced the preliminary 2017 Solar Carve-out (SREC-I) and Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II) Compliance Obligations and Minimum Standards. Customarily, the DOER estimates these values prior to administering the Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction each year. The final 2017 Minimum Standards will be announced on or before August 30th, after both the SREC-I and SREC-II Auctions have concluded.

Solar Carve-out (SREC-I)

Notably, the DOER projects that the final 2017 Compliance Obligation for the SREC-I program will be approximately 783,181 MWhs and that the Minimum Standard will be approximately 1.6313%. These values will be increased to 785,077 MWhs and 1.6352%, respectively, if the SREC-I auction does not fully clear in the first two rounds. The 2017 Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed before June 28, 2013 will be 0.9861%.

The DOER published a resource outlining its calculation of the preliminary SREC-I Minimum Standard.

Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation SREC-I Table

Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II)

Regarding the SREC-II Program, the DOER established a baseline Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard that would have applied to Retail Electricity Suppliers had the RPS Class I Emergency Regulation not been filed on April 8, 2016; these suppliers are exempt from any additional obligations resulting from the expansion of the SREC-II Program Capacity Cap.

To calculate this baseline Minimum Standard, the DOER first determined the expected MWh/year that would have resulted had the SREC-II Program Capacity Cap remained 947 MW by:

  1. Identifying the percentage shares of MW currently qualified under each SREC-II Market Sector;
  2. Multiplying these percentages by the original 947 MW SREC-II Program Capacity Cap;
  3. Multiplying these totals by (1) their respective SREC Factors, (2) a 13.51% expected capacity factor, and (3) 8,760 hours/year.

The DOER then summed these values and combined the auction volume and banked SREC-II volume from the 2015 Compliance Filings, resulting in a baseline Compliance Obligation of 1,102,311 MWhs and a Minimum Standard of 2.2960%. These values will be increased to 1,169,357 MWhs and 2.4357%, respectively, if the SREC-II auction does not fully clear in the first two rounds.

Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation SREC-II Table 2

Additionally, the DOER calculated the preliminary 2017 SREC-II Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed after May 8, 2016 – 1,496,188 MWhs and 3.1164%, respectively. These values will be increased to 1,563,234 MWhs and 3.2561% if the SREC-II auction does not fully clear in the first two rounds.

Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation SREC-II Table

The DOER also published a resource outlining its calculation of the preliminary SREC-II Minimum Standard.

Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions

The first rounds of the SREC-I and SREC-II Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions are scheduled for July 29, 2016. A second and third round will be held as needed the following week should these auctions not fully clear.

The DOER has also provided slight updates to the volumes of SRECs available in the Auctions: 1,896 in SREC-I and 67,046 in SREC-II.

SRECTrade will continue to monitor the proceedings of the Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions and will report the outcomes of the Auctions once the results become readily available.

PJM Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of July 20, 2016

Posted July 20th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM Solar REC markets SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted.

RPSvsCapacity

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of July 20, 2016 (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year, to meet each market’s RPS targets (the green bar). Note that the Estimated RPS MWs quantity does not take into consideration SRECs eligible from previous reporting years and is only used as an estimate relative to the current MWs registered in GATS. All actual RPS requirements are represented in megawatt hours (i.e. SRECs) required per year. The installed capacity operational over that time will produce SRECs, in addition to any eligible SRECs from previous periods, to end up with the final supply relative to that reporting year’s demand. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

Responsibilities for tracking NJ registered capacity have officially transitioned to Applied Energy Group, who delivered their first report on June 13th.  As of May 31st New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 1,732.3 MW of nameplate capacity, 88 MW of which had been installed between the three months from March 1st and May 31st when the auditing responsibility passed over to Applied Energy Group.  Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website. UPDATE: please note that this analysis excludes 46.7 MW of estimated installations (final as-built applications submitted, but not yet processed).

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2016: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2016: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement. Some facilities registered in DE are also eligible in PA and could impact that market’s supply.

DC2016: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross registered in OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ or MD sited systems that cross registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above.

MD2016: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in GATS as of the date noted. If projects were cross registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2017: The balance noted above represents the 5/31/16 MWs installed reported by Applied Energy Group on 6/13/2016.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 93,644 facilities across 3,264.4 MW registered in GATS as of 7/20/2016.

418 projects are 1 MW or larger in capacity, representing 1,675.4 MW or 51.3% of the qualified capacity. There are 94 projects that are 5 MW or larger. These make up 32.1% of all qualified capacity, 1,050.5 MW total, in PJM.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh, in PJM states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

SRECTrade Market Insights Q2 2016 Review

Posted July 19th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

SREC prices experience highs and lows. In order to understand and clearly present pricing data, SRECTrade offers a subscription product – Market Insights. Login to your SRECTrade account and get started for free. Here is a review of pricing in Maryland, Massachusetts & New Jersey for the second quarter of 2016:

Massachusetts SREC Update – July 2016

Posted July 18th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

With the recent promulgation of the DOER’s Emergency Regulations regarding SREC-II, last Friday’s issuance of Q1 2016 SRECs, and the upcoming SCCA auction, there has been plenty of activity in Massachusetts’ SREC markets.  The last few months have been a dynamic period in terms of state market policy as the state regulatory agencies determine how to move forward following the conclusion of the SREC-II program. This period has also seen growth in both project applications and installations.

On June 22nd, 2016 the Massachusetts DOER updated their list of generation units with Statements of Qualification (SQA). While this list gives us a good view into the  bulk of applications that have been processed, the correlation between the number of SQAs issued and the facilities that will ultimately be built is less clear.  While the data shows a dramatic increase in volume, only time will tell whether that growth will actually translate into new operational assets by year end.

You can find our most recent Massachusetts SREC-II capacity update presentation here.

The chart below shows the historical growth in cumulative size of the SREC-II market since 2014:

MA Cap

Represented by the green bars to the right, the pool of assets that have been issued SQAs but are not yet operational is significantly larger than all of the qualified and operational assets that have been registered since the market’s inception.  This dynamic has created a state-wide “sprint to the finish” as developers work to get as many projects as possible under the SREC-II umbrella before the program deadline on January 8, 2017.  Consequently, MA2016 SREC-II supply is far outpacing the RPS demand.

 

2016S&D

In 2015, the SREC-II program was oversupplied by approximately 70,238 credits, or 57.3% of the exempt load obligation of 122,617.  That surplus is carried over to 2016, and added to the 615,413 projected SREC generation to come to a total supply of 685,651 SRECs.  2016 projected SREC generation is based on holding the average TTM build rate of 26.5 MW/month constant through the year, and then applying seasonally adjusted SREC production factors.   With a 2016 exempt load adjusted obligation of 327,471, we project an oversupply of approximately 358,180 or 109.4% of the demand obligation.

We will continue to update these projections as new information becomes available.  In the coming weeks we will expect to see official results from the 2015 SCCA auction and a new demand number for the 2017 compliance obligation.  All of these will have material impacts on the projection for future supply and demand balance in the MA SREC-II market, and we will be sure to issue new analyses as that information is made public.  As always, feel free to reach out to your SRECTrade brokerage desk point of contact to further discuss this analysis.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

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Massachusetts Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction – Summer 2016

Posted July 7th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

On July 6th, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced that EnerNOC Inc. has posted the Auction Notice and Qualification Application for this year’s Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction (SCCA) to the Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SREC-I and SREC-II) Auction Announcement Website. The SCCA serves as a price support mechanism for the Massachusetts SREC programs. In over-supplied years (when more SRECs are available than required), buyers are incentivized to purchase SRECs through the SCCA, if they believe that the SCCA price is at or below the potential future price of the SRECs. You can read more about the SCCA here. The 2016 SCCA is scheduled to begin on Friday, July 29th.

SREC Volume

This year, the DOER will conduct Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions for both SREC-I and SREC-II certificates. The volumes of certificates available for purchase through each auction are as follows:

MA15 SREC-I: 1,898 certificates
MA15 SREC-II: 66,440 certificates

Multi-tiered Auction

The auction will be divided into two tiers of bidders. The Tier I bidders will consist solely of Retail Electric Suppliers with Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) compliance obligations. Up to fifty percent (50%) of the total auction volume will be reserved for Tier I bidders. If bid demand exceeds fifty percent (50%) of the total auction quantity, awards will be made on a pro-rata basis. If there is insufficient demand, each bid received will be awarded and the remaining quantity of SREC-I and SREC-IIs will be made available to Tier II bidders. Tier II bidders consist of all entities, including any Tier I bidders with unfulfilled bids from Tier I. The remaining auction quantity after the Tier I awards have been made will be allocated on a pro rata basis to all Tier II Bidders, as has been done in all prior auctions.

Minimum and Maximum Financial Security Requirements

The separation of Retail Electric Suppliers from Non-Retail Suppliers also stands in the auction’s Minimum and Maximum Financial Security Requirements. For only the SREC-II Auction, all Non-Retail Electric Suppliers without RPS compliance obligations must post at least $10,000 in financial security to participate in the SREC-II Auction. For both the SREC-I and SREC-II Auctions, Retail Electric Suppliers with RPS compliance obligations will be credited an amount of security commensurate with the volume of electric load that they served in 2015. Both Retail Electric Suppliers posting above their credited security and Non-Retail Electric Suppliers without RPS compliance obligations can post an amount no greater than the amount required to purchase ten percent (10%) of the total auction volume. Non-Retail Electric Suppliers in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts without RPS compliance obligations cannot bid on and will not be awarded SREC-I or SREC-IIs in excess of ten percent (10%) of the total auction volume.

Key Dates & Bidder Webinar Registration

Friday, July 8, 2016 – Bidder webinar to review auction process and the Qualification Application
To register for the webinar, click here.
Wednesday July 13, 2016 – Bidder Qualification Application due
Friday, July 29, 2016 – First auction takes place

Questions regarding the SCCA can be directed to the Auction Manager email account at: masrecauctionmanager@enernoc.com.

Massachusetts SREC-II Emergency Regulation Promulgated

Posted July 5th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

On April 8th, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) filed an Emergency Regulation with the Secretary of the Commonwealth to extend the SREC-II program listed under 225 CMR 14.00. Following this announcement, a public hearing was held to welcome comments on the proposed changes to SREC-II. After reviewing all submitted written comments and oral testimony, the DOER made the following modifications to the Emergency Regulation and filed the final version with the Secretary of the Commonwealth on June 17th. As of July 1st, 2016, the final version of the regulation is officially promulgated and in effect.

Below is a summary of changes made in the final Emergency Regulation:

1. Extension beyond January 8, 2017.

The first change is an extension beyond January 8, 2017 for projects that can demonstrate 50% of their construction costs have been spent by that date. The extension is similar to a regulatory provision that was part of the transition between SREC-I and SREC-II. In response to comments requesting an extension, the DOER made changes to the regulation that will allow for all projects that can demonstrate 50% of construction costs have been expended by January 8, 2017, to receive a four month extension to their construction deadline through May 8, 2017. A Guideline clarifying the process by which projects will be required to document these expenditures will be issued by DOER later this year.

2. Reducing SREC Factors.

The second modification to SREC-II consists of reducing SREC Factors for any projects qualified under an extension to the program. In an effort to reduce the cost impact of any further expansion, the DOER made changes to the regulation such that all systems with a “nameplate capacity equal to or less than 25 kW and receives an authorization to interconnect after January 8, 2017 or that qualifies for an extension under 225 CMR 14.05(9)(s)4.a will receive a lower SREC Factor…”. The DOER will revise the SREC Factor Guideline to reduce SREC Factors for these projects on or before August 31, 2016.

3. Technical Edits and Clarifications.

The final change to SREC-II includes technical edits and clarifications. The DOER made several changes correcting minor technical errors and language inconsistencies in the regulation.

In the same announcement, the DOER reported that it will be conducting Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions for both the SREC-I and SREC-II programs this summer. The DOER will make a separate announcement with more details and details regarding the volume of certificates deposited into each auction account sometime this week.

To view the original email from the MA DOER, click here.