Archive for June, 2017

New Jersey SREC Update – June 2017

Posted June 28th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

The 2017 energy year for New Jersey closed at the end of May, and with the latest NJ Office of Clean Energy Solar Activity Reports we have our first indication of total development activity for the full 12 months of the previous compliance period. We have taken the opportunity to update our state capacity model and dig into the available information in greater detail.

You can find our most recent capacity presentation here.

As of the most recent NJ Office of Clean Energy activity report, which tracks registered assets as of 5/31/2017, New Jersey has built a total of 2,169MW of solar capacity.  345MW of that has been built in EY 2017 alone. The most recently published report showed an increase of 38.9MW in solar installations since the figure reported through 4/30/17.  While much of the new capacity was certified in April and May of 2017, an unusually high amount of new capacity was attributed to December of 2016.

  • 12MW from May 2017
  • 11MW from the period between January and April 2017
  • 14MW from December 2016

Given the observed pattern in the delay of these reports accurately displaying the full capacity to be attributed to a given month, we assume that we will see another 5-15MW of capacity added to May 2017 in next month’s activity report, bringing the EY 2017 total new build figure in the range of 350MW to 360MW.

In terms of EY 2017 SREC supply and demand, our analysis shows that 2017 will be slightly (4.8%) oversupplied, but with the implied growth rate of 30MW/month quickly outpacing the growth of the RPS solar carve out schedule. Given a base case of 30MW/month and an assumption of flat load growth, we see an 24% oversupply in 2018 and a 57% oversupply in 2019.

An important piece of information to note however is that state electricity sales have shown a consistent negative trend, with sales dropping from over 83mm MWh in 2007 to 74mm MWh in 2016.  This is an annualized rate of decrease of slightly more than 1% over the previous 10 years.  We have included scenario analysis for both a flat load growth scenario as well as a negative growth scenario. Below demonstrates flat load growth scenarios.

scenario-1

supply

Given the high likelihood of significant market oversupply in coming years, either a drastic slow down in build rates or an expansion of the New Jersey SREC program requirements would be needed to address forecasted supply and demand dynamics.  Industry stakeholder groups are currently in process of evaluating how expanded NJ RPS requirements may be feasible in the framework of the existing program.

As always, we will follow the legislative process closely and keep our clients updated on any substantive changes in the market. Please feel free to reach out to your brokerage team coverage with any questions or comments.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

Massachusetts Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction Announcement – Summer 2017

Posted June 21st, 2017 by SRECTrade.

On June 16th, the DOER formally announced that they would conduct Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions (SCCA) for both the SREC-I and SREC-II programs.

EnerNOC Inc. posted the Auction Notice and Qualification Application for this year’s SCCA to the Auction Announcement Website. The SCCA is a market mechanism that allows for any leftover SREC supply from the previous compliance year to be sold to buyers. In years of oversupply, the DOER will consider the total volume of SRECs submitted to the SCCA, as well as the success of the auction in clearing those volumes, in their decision to increase the RPS demand for future compliance years.  Since there will be a SCCA for compliance year 2016, we know that the 2018 obligation will be adjusted higher.

Price

This year’s fixed price for buyers is set at $300 for both SREC-I and SREC-II. After the DOER administration fee, sellers will receive a net amount of $285 per SREC. Beginning next year, the SREC II SCCA price will begin to decrease while the SREC I price will remain at $300.

Volume

The volumes of certificates available for purchase through each auction are as follows:
MA16 SREC I: 14,405 certificates
MA16 SREC II: 234,057 certificates

Tiers

The auction will consist of two tiers:

The first tier (Tier I) includes all natural compliance buyers. Up to 50% of the total auction volume will be reserved for Tier I bidders. If demand exceeds the 50% benchmark, awards will be made on a pro-rata basis. If there is insufficient demand from Tier I bidders, the remaining SRECs will be made available to Tier II bidders.

The second tier (Tier II) of bidders include all other entities, including Tier I entities with unfulfilled bids from Tier I. After Tier I awards have been given, the remaining SRECs will be allocated to Tier II bidders on a pro-rata basis.

Key Dates & Bidder Webinar Registration

  • Wednesday, June 21, 2017 – Bidder webinar to review auction process and the Qualification Application
    • To register for the webinar please follow this link
  • Wednesday June 28, 2017 – Bidder Qualification Application due
  • Monday, July 24, 2017 – First auction takes place

We will keep you posted with any new updates ahead of the auction, and the results of the auction as soon as they are made publicly available.  Feel free to reach out to your coverage on the SRECTrade brokerage desk to discuss any questions you may have about the upcoming auction.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of June 2017

Posted June 14th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted.

capacity-summary-june-2017

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of June 9, 2017 (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar), to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of April 30, 2017, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2130.0MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2017: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2016: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement. Some facilities registered in DE are also eligible in PA and could impact that market’s supply.

DC2017: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ or MD sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above.

MD2017: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2017: The balance noted above represents the 4/30/17 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 142,821 facilities across 4,720.5MW registered in PJM GATS as of 6/9/2017.

502 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 2,394.6MW or 50.7% of the qualified capacity. There are 131 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,615.1MW or 34.2% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

Market Implications of Recent D.C. RPS Bill

Posted June 9th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

SREC market structure is primarily determined by two major policy levers: Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and the Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP). RPS schedules determine the amount of energy coming from various renewable generation sources, solar included. ACP schedules set the maximum possible price that credits such as SRECs can reach in the market. When a state adjusts the RPS or ACP, market participants on both the demand and supply sides of the SREC market need to adapt to the new environment defined by these two factors. This transition often takes time to complete and can create market instability and uncertainty in the interim.

The Washington, DC market is currently in the midst of such a transition. The Renewable Portfolio Standard Expansion Act of 2016 (B21-0650), signed last July and put into effect on Oct 8th, 2016, has already made waves in the Washington D.C. SREC market. As stipulated in the legislation, state renewable generation and solar carve-out targets have increased to 50% and 5% respectively by 2032. The bill complements this RPS expansion with an increase in the ACP or the financial penalty for non-compliance by electricity suppliers. The side-by-side comparison of the ACP schedule before and after the recent policy shift is as follows:

dc-acp-schedules

While in theory this ACP increase bodes well for owners of photovoltaic systems selling SRECs into the market, we have seen a slower demand adjustment from the utilities and power providers, the DC market’s natural compliance buyers. As a result, sellers have experienced a lack of liquidity for their SRECs during a time of seemingly favorable market conditions. The lack of demand for SRECs at the current spot market price can be partially attributed to a clause in B21-0650 which states that the new ACP schedule does not apply to any utility load contract entered into before October 8th, 2016. This grandfathering of competitive electricity supply contracts means utilities and load serving entities (LSEs) have two different RPS programs they are simultaneously subject to, as some of their contracts are subject to the old $350 ACP and some subject to the new $500 ACP. In effect, SREC demand is split between the old and new program.

Reflective of the $150 difference between the previous program’s and current program’s ACP for calendar year 2017, the price of DC17 SRECs increased from $320 to $480 from October 2016 to February of 2017. However, due to compliance buyers balancing their purchases between the $350 and $500 obligation levels, the market has settled to levels that reflect a balance between the two separate ACP levels for calendar year 2017.

While prices may continue to decrease slightly as compliance buyers better understand their future SREC needs, we expect that over the coming months the market will begin to stabilize and recover.  Buyers will inevitably adapt to the policy changes and assess their positions with regards to the two RPS obligations. The brokerage desk at SRECTrade has been working closely with buyers to better understand their obligations and ensure that the market remains liquid and accessible to all sellers.

As always, please feel free to reach out to the SRECTrade client services team, or your brokerage desk contact, to further discuss the current status of the market and our outlook on SREC pricing.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

DOER Files SMART Program Emergency Regulation

Posted June 5th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

On Monday, June 5th, the MA Department of Energy Resources (DOER) filed an emergency regulation to implement the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) Program. The regulation is directed toward supporting the development of an additional 1,600 MW of solar energy generating facilities via a declining block program.

Although the emergency regulation takes effect immediately, it can only remain in effect for three months. The emergency regulation is a placeholder, pending a full rulemaking proceeding conducted by DOER, at which time the final program rules will be established. Following the conclusion of the DOER’s rulemaking process, the Department of Public Utilities (DPU) will need to conduct a proceeding for the DPU’s approval of the tariffs filed by the Electric Distribution Companies. Only after this rulemaking and proceeding take place will the SMART program be in effect. Accordingly, the SREC-II program remains in effect for all eligible solar facilities.

As a result of this implementation schedule, it is expected that solar facilities will be eligible to qualify for the SREC-II program through the end of Quarter 1, 2018.

For more information on the SMART program, please feel free to reference our last blog post on the topic here. The DOER’s official notice regarding this emergency regulation is available here.