The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted.
Note: Due to the convergence of SREC prices across the DE, MD, OH, and PA SREC markets, methodology for calculating PJM GATS Registered MW figures was updated to represent cross-registration between similarly-priced markets. Please see the additional notes below for more information.
The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of October 18, 2017 (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar), to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.
This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.
As of September 30, 2017, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,271.2MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website.
Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:
OH2017: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.
DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA.
DC2017: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.
PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in DE, MD, and OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above.
MD2017: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA as of the date noted. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.
NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the 9/30/17 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.
PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary
There are 157,406 facilities across 5,347.7MW registered in PJM GATS as of 10/18/2017.
560 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 2,798.1MW or 52.3% of the qualified capacity. There are 135 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,653.1MW or 30.9% of all qualified capacity.
Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.
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