In May 2018, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy signed Assembly Bill 3723 (AB-3723) and Senate Bill 2314 (SB-2314). The bill increased the state’s overall RPS requirements to 50% by 2030. Specific to the solar carve-out, the legislation increased NJ’s solar requirements to 5.1% by energy year 2021 and decreased the Solar Alternative Compliance (SACP). Pursuant to the bill, the Board of Public Utilities is currently working to adopt rules to close the market to new applications upon the attainment of the revised 5.1% requirement (i.e. the reporting year 2021, 2022, and 2023 requirement which declines thereafter beginning in 2024). Additionally, the board is working to complete a study to evaluate the implementation of the state’s next solar incentive program.

Solar build rates have remained steady over the last twelve months (LTM). Average LTM monthly build rates increased from 26.9 MW/month in April 2018 to 27.2 MW/month in August 2018. Installed solar over the last six months (LSM) declined 5.5% as compared to the last twelve month average build rate, shown in our analysis. While the total build in the last three months ending in July 2018 did increase by 46.9% compared to the three months ending in April 2018, much of this can be contributed to seasonality. The last three month build rate ending in July 2018 only increased by 3.4%  as compared to the same three months in 2017.

For full market update presentation click here.

Using reporting year 2017 retail sales of 75,031,955 MWh and an LTM build rate of 27.2 MW/month, we anticipate a relatively balanced market in NJ2019 with a marginal oversupply of approximately 4.0%. This includes an estimated banked SREC volume of 294,734 after NJ2018 compliance filings are completed (NJ2018 compliance filings are just about to be finalized). These figures are based on the new solar RPS requirements as passed.

Projecting out further under three build rate scenarios, 75%, 100%, and 150% of LTM average build rates, we see the market relatively well balanced in NJ2019 and under-supplied in NJ2020, barring any substantial increase in sustained monthly build. In NJ2021, the market will remain under-supplied to balanced in our first 2 scenarios and oversupplied in our 3rd build scenario (i.e. 40.9 MW/month).

Recent pricing in the spot market for NJ2019 SRECs has remained strong, with bids ranging between $210 and $225 throughout Q3 2018. Additionally, bids for the NJ2020 and NJ2021 vintages have been indicatively $205 and $170, respectively, as of late.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions or if we can be of assistance with any SREC management and transaction services.

The 2017 energy year for New Jersey closed at the end of May, and with the latest NJ Office of Clean Energy Solar Activity Reports we have our first indication of total development activity for the full 12 months of the previous compliance period. We have taken the opportunity to update our state capacity model and dig into the available information in greater detail.

You can find our most recent capacity presentation here.

As of the most recent NJ Office of Clean Energy activity report, which tracks registered assets as of 5/31/2017, New Jersey has built a total of 2,169MW of solar capacity.  345MW of that has been built in EY 2017 alone. The most recently published report showed an increase of 38.9MW in solar installations since the figure reported through 4/30/17.  While much of the new capacity was certified in April and May of 2017, an unusually high amount of new capacity was attributed to December of 2016.

• 12MW from May 2017
• 11MW from the period between January and April 2017
• 14MW from December 2016

Given the observed pattern in the delay of these reports accurately displaying the full capacity to be attributed to a given month, we assume that we will see another 5-15MW of capacity added to May 2017 in next month’s activity report, bringing the EY 2017 total new build figure in the range of 350MW to 360MW.

In terms of EY 2017 SREC supply and demand, our analysis shows that 2017 will be slightly (4.8%) oversupplied, but with the implied growth rate of 30MW/month quickly outpacing the growth of the RPS solar carve out schedule. Given a base case of 30MW/month and an assumption of flat load growth, we see an 24% oversupply in 2018 and a 57% oversupply in 2019.

An important piece of information to note however is that state electricity sales have shown a consistent negative trend, with sales dropping from over 83mm MWh in 2007 to 74mm MWh in 2016.  This is an annualized rate of decrease of slightly more than 1% over the previous 10 years.  We have included scenario analysis for both a flat load growth scenario as well as a negative growth scenario. Below demonstrates flat load growth scenarios.

Given the high likelihood of significant market oversupply in coming years, either a drastic slow down in build rates or an expansion of the New Jersey SREC program requirements would be needed to address forecasted supply and demand dynamics.  Industry stakeholder groups are currently in process of evaluating how expanded NJ RPS requirements may be feasible in the framework of the existing program.

As always, we will follow the legislative process closely and keep our clients updated on any substantive changes in the market. Please feel free to reach out to your brokerage team coverage with any questions or comments.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

As the calendar year comes to a close, we wanted to take one final opportunity to examine the most recently released solar installation data from the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy. Throughout 2016 the New Jersey SREC market has been profoundly influenced by the implications of the data in these reports. After experiencing the type of price volatility we’ve seen in 2016, our hope is that market participants will welcome some added insight into these numbers and will consider this analysis as they begin to make projections for 2017.

You can find our most recent capacity presentation here.

As of 11/30/2106, the latest NJOCE Solar Installation Report showed an increase of 26.7MW of installed capacity since it was last issued as of 10/30/16.  Almost 20MW of that increase came from reported installations in October and November, with the balance distributed relatively evenly back to June 2015.

• 10.3MW added in November 2016
• 9.6MW added in October 2016
• 4.6MW added July through September 2016
• 2.2MW added June 2015 through June 2016

**Regular readers of these reports will also notice that a significant amount of capacity was “added” to the period from 2001 to May 2015, although this was simply a reclassification of previously reported capacity in order to improve the accuracy of the information presented. **

Within this report, a trend which we had previously noted has become more clearly defined.  Assuming that the November figure for installed capacity will be revised upward in future reports to a degree similar to the prompt months in prior data releases, we see that the average monthly rate has fallen drastically from the first half of the year to the second.  Through the first six months of 2016, the New Jersey solar market was adding just over 33MW/month.  Assuming the reported November installation number doubles due to future upward revisions, since July that monthly average has now dropped to 20MW/month.  That represents a 40% drop in new installations.

Although there were undoubtedly a range of factors that contributed to this sudden shift, lower SREC pricing almost certainly played a central role in this change of trend.  When extrapolated out into the future, the extremely aggressive build rates observed in Q1 and Q2 of 2016 indicated a market that would very quickly become oversupplied as the pace of development overtook the rate of RPS growth.  This expectation of future imbalance led to a precipitous decline in prices, bringing the NJ SREC spot market down from highs in the $290s to lows in the $200s.  This decline meant developers experienced further difficulty finding adequate funding to support their pipeline of projects.  The consequence has been that many projects that don’t qualify for residential rates of electricity – those projects who would otherwise depend on healthy SREC prices to be economically feasible – simply didn’t get built.  This is clearly apparent when comparing the three month periods ending in July 2016 and November 2016:

A closer examination of the data reveals another powerful shift in industry trends. Commercial and residential build rates have historically kept a somewhat even balance with respect to one another.  In 2015, commercial and residential capacity made up 41% and 52%, respectively, of total installations in that year.  In the first half of 2016, that balance was 58% and 40%, respectively.  Since July 2016, that balance has now shifted to 23% and 64%.  While the residential market has remained strong, the larger commercial-sized systems have experienced very real difficulty. Again, this shift is not solely due to SREC pricing, but the significant decline in the amount of funding available from the SREC markets undoubtedly played a powerful role.

As always, we want to apply this information to create better informed opinions regarding the future of the market.  The recent slowdown in new installation has further supported the idea that EY2017 will remain fairly balanced in terms of supply and demand.  Across a range of scenarios, 2017 will most likely remain well balanced with a projected oversupply of only 9-11%. Barring a drastic acceleration in new installations, 2018 is also projected to remain fairly balanced.  2019 and beyond, however, take on a much different dynamic.

Even under modest growth scenarios, the current RPS can again be overwhelmed by the growth of the New Jersey solar market in a matter of years.  It is important to note that the pricing of all financial products – SRECs included – is determined by a combination of current market conditions as well as expectations of market conditions in the future.  Even though 2017 and 2018 appear to be years of relative balance, a drastic oversupply in the later years of the New Jersey market could easily have an adverse affect on pricing in the near term.  Without some type of legislative amendment to the current state RPS schedule, the New Jersey SREC market could feasibly experience a prolonged period of depressed pricing which would signal a new, harsher economic reality for solar market participants across all segments of solar installation.

It is SRECTrade’s opinion that the market would be best served by proactively supporting any available means of expanding the state’s RPS schedule to account for this future growth.  In order to successfully support the solar market, any such solution will need to focus on the longer term expansion of the SREC program.  There have been several different proposals debated amongst industry participants, all of which have their own merits, but the fact remains that ANY expansion is better than none at all.  If the industry chooses not to take this opportunity to expand the RPS program, developers will face an increasing probability of further market contraction and slower growth.

We will continue to update you with any new data as it becomes available.  Please feel free to reach out to your SRECTrade brokerage coverage with any questions or comments you may have, we are always willing and eager to discuss our analysis with all members of the market.

We wish continued success and happiness to all of our friends and partners in the renewable energy industry, and we look forward to working together again in 2017!

**This report was updated on 4/20/2017 to address an error in the oversupply projection model which resulted in the oversupply being slightly understated. This has now been corrected** 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.