The Bill was introduced to address the recent collapse of the PA SREC market by accelerating the solar share requirement from 2012 through 2015. While the solar share requirements from 2012 through 2015 have been accelerated, the solar share requirements in 2016 through 2018 remains the same as SREC prices are expected to have stabilized by then regardless of the present situation. HB1580 will also close the solar market in Pennsylvania to out-of-state systems, thus limiting the supply of SRECs available which will drive up their value. While undoubtedly a blessing for the solar industry within Pennsylvania, some concerns have been raised regarding the impact this program will have on ratepayers. The Ratepayer Cost Analysis aims to address these issues.

Here is the breakdown of HB1580, using figures derived from the Cost Impact Report. The introduction of HB1580 imposes an additional $113,315,417 distributed amongst all residential and commercial power users in Pennsylvania.

* SREC price is based on aggregator feedback, as well as average weighted PA SREC prices in GATS

The cost imposed on each ratepayer is than calculated based on an estimated use of 10,716kWh/yr for residential and 150,000kWh/yr for commercial usage.

As the table shows, the residential bill on average increases by less than 14 cents over five years and under $2 for commercial customers with an assumed annual electric usage of 150,000kWh/yr. This amounts to less than half a penny a day for residential owners. In addition, these are pre-tax costs, so for-profit commercial and industrial customers will pay less than these estimates based on their effective tax rates..

House Bill 1580 (sponsored by Rep. Chris Ross, R-Chester) proposes to move the total requirement of SRECs forward by three years to increase the number of SRECs Load Serving Entities (utility-scale “dirty” electricity producers) must purchase. The rapid implementation of Pennsylvania SREC eligible facilities over the last year has led to an SREC over-supply of more than double the amount of SRECs needed by utility-scale electricity producers. This over-supply is responsible for low SREC pricing in Pennsylvania.

SREC markets are driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. However in Pennsylvania demand (the amount of SRECs required for a given year) is significantly lower than the number of SRECs available. The Pennsylvania SREC market is designed in such a way that every year there is a set goal for amount of power that comes from renewable energy sources and any adjustment to the yearly goal requires legislative action.

In order for the bill to move forward it needs the support of Rep. Bob Godshall, Chairman of the House Consumer Affairs Committee for Committee vote. PennFuture has asked the Pennsylvania solar community to write Rep. Godshall to show their support of the bill. However, even if the bill gets out of Committee in its current form it still needs to pass the House and Senate.  With 108 state Representatives co-signing the bill it is expected to pass the House, but it’s unclear how it will fair if it reaches the Senate.

Stay tuned for more HB 1580 Updates.

The following post outlines the megawatts of solar capacity certified and/or registered to create SRECs in the SREC markets SRECTrade currently serves.

PJM Eligible Systems

As of the end of December, there were 11,241 solar PV (11,015) and solar thermal (226) systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System registry. Of these eligible systems, 35 (~0.3%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which only 3 systems are greater than 5 MW. The largest system, currently located in Ohio, is 12 MW,  and the second largest, located in Chicago and eligible for the PA and DC markets, is 10 MW. The third largest system, located in NJ, is 5.6 MW.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of December 10, 2010, there were 180 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 156 operational and 24 not operational. Of these qualified systems, 9 (~5.0%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which only 2 are between 1.5 and 2 MW. None of the projects greater than 1 MW are currently operational.

Capacity Summary By State

The tables below demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in state and out of state. For example, PA In State includes projects eligible to sell into the PA SREC market as well as projects that may also be eligible to sell into OH and DC. PA Out of State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state. For example, New Jersey needs approximately 255 MW online for the entire 2011 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement. Additionally, the data presented below does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets to date.

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PA SRECs are valued based on speculation of what the SACP will be in  December. PA utilities should be willing to pay more for SRECs if they are struggling to meet the solar requirement in Pennsylvania. In the early years of this program, that requirement may be attainable, but it ratches up pretty quickly, so it may not be long before the SREC values in Pennsylvania increase above all the other states in the region.

For reference, our July 10^th auction saw PA close at $300.  DE closed at $245, and MD closed at $375.

This is good news for solar owners in Delaware, Maryland, Ohio, West Virginia and the other surrounding states who may be eligible to sell into Pennsylvania.  Of course the influx of supply of SRECs into PA might at some point depress the price of SRECs.  It will be interesting to see how the market plays out.  One thing is certain—as a seller, it doesn’t hurt to be registered in as many states as you can.  See our post on cross-listing to learn how.