Posts Tagged ‘SREC Market’

SREC Market Monitor: Q3 2012 Report Available

Posted November 26th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

GTM Research and SRECTrade released the SREC Market Monitor: Q3 2012 report in mid November.

The SREC Market Monitor provides quarterly analysis on the state SREC markets that account for nearly one-quarter of total U.S. PV installations.

The report includes qualitative state-by-state SREC market analyses, regulatory policy updates affecting these markets, quarterly bid/offer pricing by state, data on SREC supply by state, historical SREC pricing, and updated RPS figures for each SREC market.

To subscribe to the report click here.



Governor Christie backs solar in New Jersey’s final 2011 Energy Master Plan (EMP)

Posted December 7th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

Governor Christie’s administration has released the 2011 Energy Master Plan, which can be viewed in its entirety here.  The Plan is generally positive for the stability of NJ SREC markets, and signals overall support by the Governor’s Office for solar in NJ.  The plan specifically lists support for the following:

1. Accelerate the RPS:

A temporary acceleration of the RPS would provide some interim relief for the current market in SRECs and an opportunity for the industry to adjust. This acceleration would require increasing the RPS over the next three years and reducing the outlier years of the RPS schedule to minimize the impact to ratepayers.”


2. Give preference to smaller, distributed projects:

Projects that offer a “dual benefit” should take priority for approval and any legislative expansion of SREC eligibility by modifying the definition of “distribution system” should also provide the BPU with the ability to review and approve subsidies for grid-supply projects to ensure compatibility with land use, environmental and energy policies. Additionally, the development of solar projects should not impact the preservation of open space and farmland.

We read that second bullet as support for giving the BPU the ability to manage large utility scale projects so that they don’t flood the SREC market.

Other interesting points include support for extending Electric Distribution Company contracting programs and support for a requirement to set up a supply queue that will give the market insight into pipeline of future non-residential systems.

The Governor also calls for reducing the Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP) schedule to minimize impact of the previous changes to ratepayers.  This seems to be a reasonable concession on the part of SREC sellers, especially given that the current oversupply situation makes the SACP irrelevant.

The EMP by itself does not make policy or change the current NJ renewable portfolio standard.  However, it does signal the Governor’s position on any legislation that he may be asked to sign that would change the portfolio standard law, like Assembly Bill 4226 which contains many of the items listed in the EMP.

The EMP process itself has been illuminating, revealing a Governor’s office that is responsive to stakeholder input and seems to be responsive to data over dogma.  The draft EMP released earlier in the year was far less positive toward solar, however over several public meetings and hundreds of public comments the Governor’s office heard a great deal about the impact of solar on jobs and NJ’s energy supply.  The final Plan reflects much of this input and is a very different document from the draft.

Overall, the 2011 EMP indicates that the Governor supports solar, but he isn’t willing to write the industry a blank check.  The solar industry will need to continue to prove it’s value to New Jersey, and as long as it continues to do so it appears to have the support of Governor Christie.

 Accelerate the RPS
A temporary acceleration of the RPS would provide some interim relief for the current market in
SRECs and an opportunity for the industry to adjust. This acceleration would require increasing
the RPS over the next three years and reducing the outlier years of the RPS schedule to minimize
the impact to ratepayers.

Brad Bowery to Speak at PV Power Generation Mid-West & East Conference

Posted October 28th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

The PV Power Generation, Mid-West & East conference will be held from 8th – 9th November 2011, at the Marriott in Downtown New York. This event promises to be an in-depth study of large scale solar power generation in the Mid-West and East. Local utilities, state regulators, grid operators and land and building operators will be attending, and it will be a vital meeting point for those who wish to expand their operations in these regions.

Key topics influencing the solar market in the Mid-West and East to be covered includes

  • REC Markets
  • Legislative updates
  • Site Sourcing
  • Grid connection issues

SRECTrade CEO Brad Bowery will be speaking at the conference and will discuss several key issues affecting SREC markets such as

  • The current landscape of supply and demand in SREC markets
  • Key benefits of an in-state SREC market
  • Variations of SREC program in each state, and how to evaluate them
  • Essential ingredients for creating a successful SREC market
  • How solar can compete with other renewable technologies in the green space
  • The intricacies of Solar Alternative Compliance Payments(SACP) in each state
  • Obtaining a long term SREC contract

View the conference agenda to find out more, and register here.

Pennsylvania legislature commences efforts to fix SREC program

Posted May 30th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

The Pennsylvania SREC market has had its design flaws. After HB 2405 and HB 1128 fell by the wayside last year, the Pennsylvania SREC market took the expected turn for the worst. SREC prices have dropped from a high of $310 to a low of $80 per SREC. Representative Chris Ross, who spearheaded the initial Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard in Pennsylvania has proposed an amendment to address some of the issues facing the Pennsylvania solar industry. Here are the two major changes that he is proposing as an amendment to the original Act:

1. After January 1, 2012, PA will no longer register solar technologies from out-of-state

2. The requirements for the 2013, 2014, 2015 Energy Years will increase from approximately 70 MW, 118 MW and 205 MW to 207 MW, 238 MW and 290 MW respectively.

These two changes would make a positive impact on the market. Closing the doors to out-of-state facilities would allow Pennsylvania to focus the opportunities created by the program on local businesses and local projects. Though the wording is a bit vague, it also seems that facilities registered prior to 2012 will be allowed to continue to sell their SRECs in the state market. This is an important distinction for the facilities that have been financed and accepted into the PA program with the expectation of participating in the market. Meanwhile, the increase in the requirements is a necessary step in order to make SRECs relevant again, though it may not be enough.

The market has been flooded with SRECs from facilities throughout the PJM region. The 2011 Energy Year SREC requirement only had room for about 18 MW of solar. To date, there is 78 MW registered to generate SRECs, with more facilities built and awaiting approval. 33 of the 78 MW are located within Pennsylvania. With the requirement only growing to 44 MW and 70 MW in the next two years respectively, the SREC market in Pennsylvania will face a prolonged collapse in pricing. Even with the proposed increases in 2013-2015, this could still be a problem. The oversupply from the 2011 and 2012 Energy Year will carry into the 2013 Energy Year, meaning that even with an increase to 205 MW of needed capacity in 2013, unsold SRECs from previous years will keep downward pressure on SREC prices.

One of the more fundamental flaws with the SREC program in Pennsylvania was reported on recently by the Central Penn Business Journal. The article accurately highlights how, in addition to out-of-state supply, local incentives skewed the role that SRECs were playing in the solar economics. The most-obvious culprits in the Pennsylvania SREC collapse are the out-of-state facilities that were flooding the market, but if you look at the numbers, Pennsylvania would still be over-supplied if you excluded all the out-of-state facilities. When attractive upfront incentives mitigate the influence of SRECs in the decision to go solar, many facilities will be built without SRECs in mind. When these projects enter the market, they undermine the credibility of the market and out-compete facilities that need to factor in a value for SRECs, driving prices below sustainable levels.

To promote a healthy SREC market, the long-term solution (once the current oversupply has been addressed) is, ironically, to shift towards a greater reliance on SRECs. A greater reliance on SRECs means that market prices will track closely with the value needed to cover the gap between developing solar and utilizing other electricity sources. When that happens the market will act as it should, trending downwards as costs come down, while remaining at levels that sustain development. If Pennsylvania continues to put upfront incentives in front of developers, the SREC market will never rebound.

In contrast, New Jersey has moved away from upfront incentives and promoted the SREC-only concept. The importance of SRECs in financing solar projects in New Jersey is why the market won’t see the collapse that some of the skeptics are predicting. Growth in the market will have to slow, but it is unlikely that SREC prices collapse the way they have in Pennsylvania. This is because when SREC prices come down in New Jersey and contracts become scarce, solar projects won’t be built (assuming rational behavior). In Pennsylvania, overly-attractive upfront incentives over the past two years have made SRECs an afterthought. If the market is ever going to function properly, the state will need to either come up with the appropriate combination of SREC values and incentives to promote solar at a rate in alignment with the growth of the RPS, or it will have to take a cue from New Jersey and shift away from the upfront incentives all together.