Here is a very basic New Jersey SREC graphic: As of the most recent NJ BPU report, solar installation capacity in New Jersey surpassed 530 MW as of November 30, 2011, the midway point of the 2012 energy year. That’s 44% higher than where it needs to be to meet the 2012 requirement, assuming constant growth. It also means that, with no growth, there is already enough capacity to meet the requirements in EY2013. There is still room for growth in EY2014 and EY2015. Those markets are 17% and 34% short respectively based on installations TODAY. However, the chart below does not account for excess supply that is carried forward, which indicates that the oversupply scenario in New Jersey will likely extend through 2014 and possibly into 2015.
Note: Energy years run June 1 to May 31. So EY2013 will begin on June 1, 2012 and end May 31, 2013.