Posts Tagged ‘SRECs’

MA16 SREC-I Market Review

Posted November 3rd, 2016 by SRECTrade.

With the October issuance of Q2 2016 SRECs behind us, we are now approximately halfway through the 2016 energy year in Massachusetts. This blog post will take into account observed issuance numbers from the first half of the year and use projections for future issuance periods to understand what caused the fall in MA16 SREC-I prices from $450+ in January to more recent bids of $380. We will look at the supply and demand balance in order to survey what may be coming in the months ahead.

Recall that demand is driven by retail electric sales in the State. The latest data we have comes from 2014, a year in which 48,129,294 MWh were sold. If we assume that retail electricity sales are flat and we apply the obligation of 1.76% and then adjust for exempted load, we derive a total estimated demand of 833,780 SRECs:

MA16 SREC-I Demand

On the supply side of the market, the simplest analysis assumes the market generates nearly 784,000 SRECs and when combined with the re-minted volumes from this year’s SCCA (1,898), then we get a total supply of 785,886. When compared to the demand outlined above, we conclude the market is short nearly 48,000 SRECs.

MA16 REC-I simple supply

What would explain falling prices in a market that is potentially under-supplied? The quick answer is that perhaps retail sales of electricity are falling instead of flat, which would lower the demand. Alternatively, perhaps the supply of SRECs is higher than detailed. We’ll examine some supply scenarios first.

One component of supply is the banked SRECs from prior years. Retail suppliers can bank up to 10% of their annual obligation for use in future years. The maximum volume of banked RECs in the market is estimated at 65,382 – the sum of the total obligation in 2014 and 2015 multiplied by 10%. If all of those SRECs were brought to market in 2016, then we would see the market long by 17,488 SRECs. We see that scenario as unlikely since 2015 was short and the bank may have been used to avoid paying Alternative Compliance Payments (ACPs). On the other hand, it’s possible that between re-minted SRECs from the 2013 and 2014 SCCCA and banked volumes, that upwards of 15,000 SRECs from prior vintages may impact the 2016 market. This source of supply would help to tighten the balance of supply and demand, but not necessarily push to over-supply.

Examining a different scenario on the demand side, even if retail sales were down 3%, the total SREC demand would still sit at 808,414, leaving a tight, yet still under-supplied market based on the simpler supply analysis.

Another element worth mentioning is liquidity. While a healthy market needs liquidity from both buyers and sellers in order to function properly, we will direct our attention to the buy-side. Because there are far more sellers than buyers in this market, an absence of even a handful of buyers is far more impactful to the efficiency of the SREC markets than the absence of an equivalent number of sellers.

In recent months we have observed a noticeably subdued level of activity from buyers. What happens when SRECs are issued and a bunch of sellers come into a quiet market? As evidenced from pricing over the last month, bids start to retreat:

Market_Insights___SRECTrade

A simplistic read of the current state of the market is that prices have dropped due to the possibility of oversupply. However, deeper examination of current supply and demand in SREC-I markets points towards a tighter, more balanced market. The bearish sentiment reflected in recent weeks may actually reflect a lack of activity from natural compliance buyers in the face of a glut of supply coming to market after Q2 issuance. These two scenarios mean very different things for medium to long term “equilibrium” pricing in the SREC-I market. A structural and persistent oversupply, a scenario we do not perceive as likely, would mean that lower prices are justified and here to stay. A mismatch of liquidity due to trading preferences of buyers and sellers however would point towards short term volatility but longer term stability in supportive SREC prices.

As always, we will continue to provide follow-up analysis as more information becomes available.  Feel free to reach out to your contacts on SRECTrade’s brokerage desk with any questions you may have.

 

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Clean Energy Jobs Act Introduced to Maryland’s General Assembly

Posted February 10th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Since its introduction to the public on December 8th, 2015, the Maryland Clean Energy Jobs Act has made its way to the front doors of the Maryland General Assembly, with the recent introduction of the bill into the Senate under SB0921 and the upcoming introduction into the House of Delegates this coming Friday, February 12th. The Act proposes an increase to the state’s existing Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which would include slight increases to the solar carve-out. The Act schedules a gradual increase in the state’s RPS obligation to satisfy 25 percent of its energy needs with Tier 1 renewable energy sources by 2020 – a significant advancement of the current goal of 20 percent by 2020. The solar carve-out is scheduled to increase incrementally from the current goal of 2.0 percent by 2020 to 2.5 percent by 2025.

Senator Majority Leader Catherine Pugh (D-Baltimore), Delegate Dereck Davis (D-Prince George’s), Senator Brian Feldman (D-Montgomery), and Delegate Bill Frick (D-Montgomery) have championed the concept of the bill since its inception months ago. The bill was first filed in the Senate by Senator Pugh, and was referred to the Finance Committee in its First Reading on February 5th. The bill’s introduction to the House will be this Friday, which will just beat the state’s House Bill Introduction Date, allowing the bill to bypass referral to the House Rules and Executive Nominations Committee.

While we monitor the progress of this bill on the House and Senate floors, we are continuing to project and analyze the impact that its passage could have on the Maryland solar renewable energy credit (SREC) market. Increasing the annual RPS obligation schedule will also increase the demand for SRECs and support prices in the market. In addition, the Act is anticipated to source $40 million from unallocated contributions from the state’s Strategic Energy Investment Fund, create an estimated 2,000 additional clean energy jobs, and help Maryland address climate change with clean energy.

For more information on the early stages of the Clean Energy Jobs Act, please reference our previous post on the topic from December 11th, 2015.

August 2013 Auction Results

Posted August 16th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s August 2013 SREC Auction closed on 8/01/13. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets sold in the auction.

August SREC Prices SREC Vintage Year
State 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Delaware $25.00
Maryland $122.00 $128.00 $133.00
Massachusetts $236.62
New Jersey $116.00 $121.00 $130.00
Ohio In-State $40.00
Ohio Out-of-State $13.00
Pennsylvania $4.01 $5.01 $13.00 $13.00
Washington, DC $480.00 $480.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year. For example, current vintage SRECs are generated beginning in June of 2013.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease. “-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no SRECs available for sale in that vintage or there were no matching bids and offers to determine a clearing price.

State Market Observations:

Delaware: Current vintage DE SRECs traded at $25/SREC- up from $10 in the previous auction. The DE SREC market is highly illiquid. The primary buyer for DE SRECs is Delmarva Power and Light (DPL). Most SRECs are sold through DPL’s SRECDelaware program, for which SREC asset owners submit competitive applications in order to obtain 20 year SREC contracts. There continues to be some need for SRECs outside of DPL’s program and compliance buyers with a need for DE sited but non-DPL derived demand will decline over time. SRECTrade administers both the DPL spot auction as well as the software behind the the SRECDelaware solicitations.

Maryland: All eligible MD SREC vintages sold in the August auction. As SRECs age they tend to become less valuable and demand for older vintages tends to decrease.  MD2011s, MD2012s and MD2013s  transacted at $122.00, $128.00, and $133.00/SREC in the August auction.

Massachusetts: The August SRECTrade auction sold available 2013 vintage SRECs at $236.62.  This occurred ahead of news on 2012 vintage SRECs deposited in the MA Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction. For the latest info on the MA market read our MA blog posts.

New Jersey:  NJ2012,  NJ2013, and NJ2014 SRECs traded at $116.00, $121.00, and $130.00/SREC, respectively. Pricing for the 2012 and 2013 vintages represent slight increases from the July auction. This period was the first period in which NJ2014s transacted through our auction.

Ohio: The Ohio Adjacent market tends to mimic the PA SREC market. OH2013 adjacent vintage SRECs traded at $13/SREC, the same price as equivalent vintage SRECs in the PA market. OH2013 Sited SRECs traded at $40 and continues to experience minimal demand.

Pennsylvania: PA2011s, PA2012s, PA2013s, and PA2014s traded at $4.01, $5.01, $13.00 and $13.00/SREC respectively. SREC oversupply has kept pricing low. 

Washington, DC: DC SRECs continues to see high transaction values relative to the $500 SACP. DC2012 and 2013 vintage SRECs traded up to $480.00/SREC. It is expected the market will continue to experience under supply into the 2013 trading year.

For historical auction pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction for all SREC markets closes on Friday, September 6th at 5 p.m. ET. To place an order, login here.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: June 2013

Posted July 14th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: June 2013

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets SRECTrade serves. All PJM data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted. All MA data is based on the information provided by the DOER as of the date noted. This analysis does not include projects that are not yet registered and certified with the entities noted herein.

A PDF copy of this table can be found here.

Capacity_June2013

Overview of PJM Eligible Systems

As of July 10, 2013 there were 36,115 solar PV and 720 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Of these, 247 (0.67%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater. Twenty-seven of these projects have a nameplate capacity of 5 MW or greater. New Jersey continues to host most of the larger scale facilities, claiming home to 63.0% of the projects, 17 of 27 facilities, that are equal to or greater than 5 MW. The three largest projects are a 29.1 MW FirstSolar project in MD, the 25.1 MW PSE&G utility pole mount project located in NJ, and the 16.1 MW Mount St. Mary’s project in MD.

NJ Office of Clean Energy Estimated Installed Capacity Through 6/30/13: On July 09, 2013, the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy announced total installed solar capacity reached 1,094 MW; an increase of approximately 15.7 MW over May’s total capacity.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of June 28, 2013, there were 6,326 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 6,165 operational and 161 not operational. Total qualified capacity is 401.9 MW; 221.6 MW of which is operational and 180.3 MW is not operational under the current 400 MW SREC program. Also on July 12, 2013, the MA DOER published a new Pending SQA list demonstrating the projects that are currently under review for a statement of qualification under the current solar carve-out program.  There are 1,435 projects (862 operational and 573 not operational) totaling 277.3 MW on this list (21.3 MW operational and 256.0 MW not operational). Fore more information refer to our blog posts covering the current SREC program.

How to Interpret This Table

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in-state and out-of-state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out-of-State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state with only that particular compliance period vintage. For example, New Jersey needed approximately 496.7 MW online for the entire 2013 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement with 2013 vintage SRECs only. SRECs still available from prior eligible periods can also impact the Solar RPS requirements. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider” updated 10/1/12. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

 

July 2013 Auction Results

Posted July 12th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s July 2013 SREC Auction closed on 7/02/13. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets covered in the auction.

July SREC Prices SREC Vintage Year
State 2011 2012 2013*
Delaware $10.00
Maryland
$125.00 $130.00
Massachusetts
New Jersey $115.25 $115.25 $120.25
Ohio In-State
Ohio Out-of-State $12.00
Pennsylvania $8.00 $10.00
Washington, DC $470.00 $470.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year. For example, current vintage SRECs are generated beginning in June of 2012.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease. “-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no SRECs available for sale in that vintage or there were no matching bids and offers to determine a clearing price.

State Market Observations:

Delaware: Current vintage DE SRECs traded at $10/SREC- down from $35 in the previous auction. The DE SREC market is highly illiquid. Transactions for DE SRECs tend to happen in spurts. Sale opportunities should be taken advantage of when available for systems that are not contracted under Delmarva Power and Light’s SRECDelaware program. The primary buyer for DE SRECs is Delmarva Power and Light (DPL). Most SRECs are sold through DPL’s SRECDelaware program, for which SREC asset owners submit competitive applications in order to obtain 20 year SREC contracts. There continues to be some need for SRECs outside of DPL’s program and compliance buyers with a need for DE sited but non-DPL derived demand will decline over time. SRECTrade administers both the DPL spot auction as well as the software behind the the SRECDelaware solicitations.

Maryland: MD eligible SREC prices saw a slight bump from last month’s SRECTrade auction prices, but MD 2011s did not transact. As SRECs age they tend to become less valuable and opportunities to sell tend to decrease.  MD2012s and MD2013s  transacted at $125.00/SREC and $130.00/SREC in the July auction.

Massachusetts: The July SRECTrade auction saw no SRECs transact because all unsold SRECs have been moved to the DOER Solar Credit Clearinghouse NEPOOL-GIS auction account. The first 2013 SRECs (from Q1 2013 power production) will be minted on July 15th. SRECTrade will hold an auction for those SRECs then. The DOER Solar Credit Clearinghouse auction will run its first iteration on July 26th. For the latest info on the MA market read our MA blog posts.

New Jersey: NJ SREC prices declined again in the July auction for the 2012 and 2013 vintages; a logical trend given the oversupply in the New Jersey market.  NJ2011,  NJ2012, and NJ2013 SRECs traded at $115.25, $115.25, and $120.25/SREC, respectively. Excluding unsold SREC supply carried over from previous vintages, approximately 496.7 MW of annual installed operational capacity  is required to meet the 2013 requirement. As of, 6/30/2013, the NJ Office of Clean Energy reported that 1,094 MW had been installed in NJ.

Ohio: Similar to the June auction no transaction occurred for OH sited SRECs this auction period. OH 2013 adjacent vintage SRECs traded at $12/SREC. 2013 is expected to continue to experience oversupply and minimal demand. Most demand for OH Sited SRECs has been fulfilled through long term agreements with large utility scale projects or through long term RFPs with the state’s regulated utilities.

Pennsylvania: PA2012 and 2013 SRECs traded at $8/SREC  and $10/SREC respectively, slightly down from previous auctions. SREC oversupply will continue to result depressed SREC pricing for the foreseeable future. 

Washington, DC: DC SRECs continue to see high transaction values relatively to the $500 SACP. DC 2012 and 2013 vintage SRECs traded at $470.00/SREC. It is expected the market will continue to experience under supply into the 2013 trading year.

For historical auction pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction for MA SRECs closes on Monday, July 15th at 5 p.m. ET. A joint, PJM and MA solar auction will be held 8/1/2013. To place an order, login here.

June 2013 SRECTrade Auction Results

Posted June 14th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s June 2013 SREC Auction closed on 6/04/13. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets covered in the auction.

June SREC Prices SREC Vintage Year
State 2011 2012 2013*
Delaware $35.00
Maryland $107.00
$115.00 $122.50
Massachusetts $215.00
New Jersey $115.00 $125.00 $130.00
Ohio In-State
Ohio Out-of-State $14.00 $14.00 $14.00
Pennsylvania $10.00 $11.00
Washington, DC $488.98

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year. For example, current vintage SRECs are generated beginning in June of 2012.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease. “-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no SRECs available for sale in that vintage or there were no matching bids and offers to determine a clearing price.

State Market Observations:

Delaware: Current vintage DE SRECs traded at $35/SREC. The primary buyer for DE SRECs is Delmarva Power and Light (DPL). Most SRECs are sold through DPL’s SRECDelaware program, for which SREC asset owners submit competitive applications in order to obtain 20 year SREC contracts. There continues to be some need for SRECs outside of DPL’s program and compliance buyers with a need for DE sited but non-DPL derived demand will decline over time. SRECTrade administers both the DPL spot auction as well as the software behind the the SRECDelaware solicitations.

Maryland: MD eligible SREC prices came down again from last month’s SRECTrade auction prices. MD2011s, MD2012s, and MD2013s  transacted at $107.00/SREC, $115.00/SREC, and $122.50/SREC, respectively, in the June auction.

Massachusetts: The MA2012 auction price increased from $200/SREC in May to $215/SREC in the June auction. Unsold SRECs need to be deposited in the DOER Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction NEPOOL-GIS account by June 15, 2013. SRECs that are not deposited in the DOER auction will not be eligible for future transactions. SRECTrade expects that approximately 45,000 SRECs will be deposited in the DOER auction. For the latest info on the MA market read our MA blog posts.

New Jersey: NJ SREC prices declined in the June auction.  NJ2011,  NJ2012, and NJ2013 SRECs traded at $115.00, $125.00, and $130.00/SREC, respectively. The New Jersey market remains over-supplied. Excluding unsold SREC supply carried over from previous vintages, approximately 496.7 MW of annual installed operational capacity  is required to meet the 2013 requirement. As of, 5/31/2013, the NJ Office of Clean Energy reported that 1,078.4 MW had been installed in NJ.

Ohio: No transaction occurred for OH sited SRECs this auction period. OH2011, 2012 and 2013 adjacent vintage SRECs traded at $14/SREC. 2013 is expected to continue to experience oversupply and minimal demand. Most demand for OH Sited SRECs has been fulfilled through long term agreements with large utility scale projects or through long term RFPs with the state’s regulated utilities.

Pennsylvania: PA2012 and 2013 SRECs traded at $10/SREC respectively, in line with previous auctions. SREC oversupply will continue to lead depressed SREC pricing for the foreseeable future. 

Washington, DC: DC SRECs continue to increase in value. DC 2013 vintage SRECs traded at $488.98. It is expected the market will continue to experience under supply into the 2013 trading year.

For historical auction pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction closes on Tuesday, July 2nd at 5 p.m. ET and will cover PJM  SRECs only. Click here to sign in and place an order.

Any unsold MA 2012 SRECs should be deposited in the the DOER auction NEPOOL-GIS account by June 15th. SRECTrade will automatically transfer unsold MA SRECs for its EasyREC clients. This June 15th deadline only affects facilities that are sited in MA and eligible for the MA SREC program.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Reports: May 2013

Posted June 13th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: May 2013

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets SRECTrade serves. All PJM data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted. All MA data is based on the information provided by the DOER as of the date noted. This analysis does not include projects that are not yet registered and certified with the entities noted herein.

A PDF copy of this table can be found here.

 Capacity_May2013

Overview of PJM Eligible Systems

As of June 10, 2013 there were 35,136 solar PV and 706 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Of these, 238 (0.66%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater. Twenty-five of these projects have a nameplate capacity of 5 MW or greater. New Jersey continues to host most of the larger scale facilities, claiming home to 60.0% of the projects, 15 of 25 facilities, that are equal to or greater than 5 MW. Unchanged from the last couple of months, the three largest projects are a 29.1 MW FirstSolar project in MD, the 25.1 MW PSE&G utility pole mount project located in NJ, and the 16.1 MW Mount St. Mary’s project in MD.

NJ Office of Clean Energy Estimated Installed Capacity Through 5/31/13: On June 11, 2013, the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy announced that total installed solar capacity reached 1,078.4 MW; an increase of approximately 29.3 MW over April’s total capacity.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of May 20, 2013, there were 5,992 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 5,897 operational and 95 not operational. Total qualified capacity is 287.0 MW; 217.9 MW of which is operational and 69.1 MW not operational. As of June 7, 2013, the MA DOER published a new RPS Solar Carve-Out list demonstrating the projects that are currently under review for a statement of qualification under the current solar carve-out program. Under the original 400 MW cap, there are 305 projects (237 operational and 68 not operational) qualified totaling 115 MW (3.4 operational and 111.6 not operational). Additionally, the DOER report provided information about projects that fall outside of the original 400 MW cap. There are 1,323 projects (456 operational and 867 not operational) totaling 504.3 MW (7.2 operational and 497.1 not operational) on this section of the list. Based on the information presented at the MA DOER Stakeholder meeting on Friday, June 7, 2013, some of these projects may qualify as eligible under the emergency regulations to be implemented.

How to Interpret This Table

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in-state and out-of-state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out-of-State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state with only that particular compliance period vintage. For example, New Jersey needed approximately 496.7 MW online for the entire 2013 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement with 2013 vintage SRECs only. SRECs still available from prior eligible periods can also impact the Solar RPS requirements. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider” updated 10/1/12. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

 

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: April 2013

Posted May 22nd, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: April 2013

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets that SRECTrade currently serves. All PJM data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted. All MA data is based on the information provided by the DOER as of the date noted. This analysis does not include projects that are not yet registered and certified with the entities noted herein.

A PDF copy of this table can be found here.

 Capacity_April2013

Overview of PJM Eligible Systems

As of May 15, 2013 there were 34,339 solar PV and 696 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Of these, 228 (0.65%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater. Twenty-five of these projects have a nameplate capacity of 5 MW or greater. New Jersey continues to host most of the larger scale facilities, claiming home to 60.0% of the projects, 15 of 25 facilities, that are equal to or greater than 5 MW. The three largest projects are a 29.1 MW FirstSolar project in MD, the 25.1 MW PSE&G utility pole mount project located in NJ, and the 16.1 MW Mount St. Mary’s project in MD.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of May 20, 2013, there were 5,992 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 5,897 operational and 95 not operational. Total qualified capacity is 287.0 MW, 217.9 MW of which is operational and 69.1.9 MW not operational. The not operational capacity balance increased by 37.2 MW over the last reporting period. Electricity suppliers providing power to the state need to acquire approximately 73,400 SRECs in 2012. According to NEPOOL GIS, 118,356 MA2012 SRECs have been issued for the current compliance year.

How to Interpret This Table

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in-state and out-of-state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out-of-State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state with only that particular compliance period vintage. For example, New Jersey needed approximately 496.7 MW online for the entire 2013 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement with 2013 vintage SRECs only. SRECs still available from prior eligible periods can also impact the Solar RPS requirements. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider” updated 10/1/12. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

 

May 2013 SRECTrade Auction Results

Posted May 22nd, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s May 2013 SREC Auction closed on 5/01/13. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets covered in the auction.

May SREC Prices SREC Vintage Year
State 2011 2012 2013*
Delaware $35.00
Maryland $115.00
$120.00 $125.00
Massachusetts $200.00
New Jersey $120.00 $135.01 $140.01
Ohio In-State $50.00
Ohio Out-of-State $10.00 $14.00 $14.00
Pennsylvania $10.00 $13.00
Washington, DC $405.00 $420.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year. For example, current vintage SRECs are generated beginning in June of 2012.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no SRECs available for sale in that vintage or there were no matching bids and offers to determine a clearing price.

State Market Observations:

Delaware: The Delaware market is highly illiquid. The primary buyer for DE SRECs is Delmarva Power and Light (DPL). Most SRECs are sold through DPL’s SRECDelaware program, for which SREC asset owners submit competitive applications in order to obtain 20 year SREC contracts. There continues to be some need for SRECs outside of DPL’s program and compliance buyers with a need for DE sited SRECs have recently started to submit bids for SRECs. Futhermore, DPL is also currently holding it’s own spot auction for SRECs in order to cover its 2012 energy year position outside of the SRECs that it procured through the SRECDelaware program. The spot auction order window closes on 5/22/2013.  SRECTrade administers both the DPL spot auction as well as the software behind the the SRECDelaware solicitations.

Maryland: MD eligible SREC prices came down from last month’s SRECTrade auction prices. MD2011s, MD2012s, and MD2013s  transacted at $115/SREC, $120/SREC, and $125/SREC, respectively, in the May auction.

Massachusetts: Following on the heels of the 2012 Q4 SREC issuance in April 15, MA2012 SRECs traded at $200/SREC, in line with pricing throughout 2012 vintage trading. MA2012 vintage SRECTrade auction prices have transacted between a low of $181.50/SREC in April 2013 and a high of $271.05/SREC in July 2012. Unsold SRECs should be deposited in the DOER Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction NEPOOL-GIS account by June 15, 2013. SRECs that are not deposited in the DOER auction will not be eligible for future transactions. SRECTrade expects that approximately 45,000 SRECs will be deposited in the DOER auction.  For more on the MA market read our MA blog posts.

New Jersey: A rush on NJ vintage 2011, 2012, and 2013 SRECs pushed May auction pricing up. NJ2011,  NJ2012, and NJ2013 SRECs traded at $120.00, $135.01, and $140.01/SREC, respectively. The OTC market has experienced pricing increases in line with the auction pricing. This occurred despite NJ Office of Clean Energy announcements that the total installed capacity through 4/30/2013 is estimated to be 1,049 MW, a month over month increase of approximately 22.8 MW. The New Jersey market however, continues to be over-supplied. Not including unsold over-supply carried over from previous vintages, approximately 496.7 MW of annual installed operational capacity  is required to meet the 2013 requirement. As of, 5/15/2013, 995.6 MW were registered in GATS or two times the requirement. GATS registrations tend to lag behind NJ Office of Clean Energy Data by several months because of delays in registering facilities with GATS. NJ SRECs are credited back to date of interconnection.

Ohio: OH2013 Sited SRECs transacted at $50/SREC . OH2011, 2012 and 2013 adjacent vintage SRECs traded at $10, $14 and $14/SREC respectively. As in many auctions throughout the last year  there was no sale of the OH2012 sited vintages indicating the lack of demand and oversupply in the market. 2013 is expected to continue to experience oversupply and minimal demand. Most demand for OH Sited SRECs has been fulfilled through long term agreements with large utility scale projects or through long term RFPs with the state’s regulated utilities. 2012 compliance obligations are currently being finalized.

Pennsylvania: PA2012 and 2013 SRECs traded at $10 and $13/SREC respectively, in line with previous auctions. OTC transactions have been pricing slightly higher or in line with auction prints. SREC oversupply continues to impact PA’s market. 

Washington, DC: DC SRECs continue to trade up month over month. The 2012 and 2013 vintages increased to $405 and $420/SREC, respectively. It is expected the market will continue to experience under supply into the 2013 trading year.

For historical auction pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction closes on Tuesday, June 4 at 5 p.m. ET and will cover PJM and MA Solar RECs. Click here to sign in and place an order.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: March 2013

Posted April 10th, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: March 2013

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets that SRECTrade currently serves. All PJM data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted. All MA data is based on the information provided by the DOER as of the date noted. This analysis does not include projects that are not yet registered and certified with the entities noted herein.

A more detailed analysis of supply, demand and price trends in the SREC markets can be found in the SREC Market Monitor, a joint-venture between SRECTrade and Greentech Media’s GTM Research.

A PDF copy of this table can be found here.

Capacity_March2013

***NJ Capacity Update as of 3/31/13*** Through March 2013 NJ installed capacity reached approximately 1,026 MW of installed solar capacity; a 18 MW increase over the prior month. The number in the table above represents all capacity registered in GATS as of the date noted. The remaining capacity will be registered and receive SREC credit from the date of project interconnection.

Overview of PJM Eligible Systems

As of April 9, 2013 there were 33,116 solar PV and 679 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Of these, 225 (0.67%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater. Twenty-four of these projects have a nameplate capacity of 5 MW or greater. New Jersey continues to host most of the larger scale facilities, claiming home to 62.5% of the projects, 15 of 24 facilities, that are equal to or greater than 5 MW. The three largest projects are a 29.1 MW FirstSolar project in MD, the 25.1 MW PSE&G utility pole mount project located in NJ, and the 16.1 MW Mount St. Mary’s project in MD.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of April 17, 2013, there were 5,532 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 5,485 operational and 47 not operational. Total qualified capacity is 239.1 MW, 207.2 MW of which is operational and 31.9 MW not operational. Electricity suppliers providing power to the state need to acquire approximately 73,400 SRECs in 2012. According to NEPOOL GIS, 119,247 MA2012 SRECs have been issued for the current compliance year.

How to Interpret This Table

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in-state and out-of-state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out-of-State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state with only that particular compliance period vintage. For example, New Jersey needed approximately 496.7 MW online for the entire 2013 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement with 2013 vintage SRECs only. SRECs still available from prior eligible periods can also impact the Solar RPS requirements. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider” updated 10/1/12. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.