Connecticut DEER Proposes Doubling of State’s RPS

Posted February 16th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On February 8th, 2018, the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) released the 2018 Connecticut Comprehensive Energy Strategy, which calls for a doubling of the state’s Class I Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS) target from 20% by 2020 (and stable thereafter) to 40% by 2030. The change would effectively increase the pace of renewable growth to 2% per year. The proposal acknowledges the likelihood of increased REC pricing due to an RPS increase and, as a counteracting measure, recommends that the state lowers the alternative compliance payment (ACP), which caps the market.

The proposal stresses the need to bolster incentives for zero-emitting technologies such as wind and solar, while phasing out carbon-emitting technologies such as biomass and landfill gas. As a solution, the document briefly proposes a separate carve-out or tier within the RPS to help prop up zero-emitting renewable technologies. This could create a separate REC market with pricing that would likely be more favorable for renewable energy technologies eligible for the carve out. SRECTrade will continue to monitor Connecticut’s renewable policy structure and evaluate its relevance to our clients and partners.

Maryland SREC Market Update – February 2018

Posted February 13th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

With the close of the Maryland 2017 compliance year approaching, we thought it would be relevant to provide an update on where the current market stands, including recent happenings that could impact the future Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements. Click here for our full presentation.

This year started off slightly more positive as the market moved up off its early Q4 2017 lows of about $5.00-6.00/SREC. Recent spot transactions have been ranging between $7.00-7.50/SREC. Additionally, the MD2018 and MD2019 forward markets have trended up into the $8.50-$10.50/SREC range depending on vintage and transaction size. It is likely that a combination of the 2017 compliance year coming to a close as well as standard offer service electricity load auctions taking place in late January had a positive price impact through increasing buy side demand.

Under the current RPS requirements, the MD SREC market is fundamentally oversupplied. Solar build rates remained strong through the end of 2017 and the 100 megawatt (MW) Great Bay project is now registered in PJM GATS. Excluding the Great Bay project, however, the market experienced a 15.7% decline in average MW build per month in the last 6 months versus the last 12 months (through November). Even though the rates per month are declining, the market saw a push of project registrations heading in to the close of 2017, which is typically normal at year end (i.e. excluding Great Bay, 33.9 MW were registered in GATS through November 2017 vs. 26.7 MW through August 2017).

The most meaningful news for the Maryland RPS is the introduction of Senate Bill 732. The bill aims to increase the overall RPS requirements to 50% by 2030 and increase the solar carve out requirements to 14.5% by 2028, with a large step up to 5.5% in 2019. In addition to increasing the MD RPS, the bill also reduces the Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP) for both the Tier I and solar carve out requirements. Summary charts below outline the proposed changes to the solar carve out portion of the RPS, including both RPS % increases and ACP decreases.

The bill had its first reading in the Senate Finance Committee in early February. It is scheduled to be heard in the house (HB1453) on March 5th and then in the Senate on March 6th. As demonstrated in our attached Maryland SREC Update presentation, SRECTrade Maryland SREC Update, the increase in the RPS % under SB732 would allow for Maryland’s solar market to continue to build at rates in excess of current last 12 month averages (i.e. 20.3 MW/month). This would allow the market to develop a variety of project types including larger, utility scale projects that the state has seen over the past few years. While the step up to a 5.5% solar requirement in 2019 is substantial, our presentation does not take into consideration the impact of exempt electric load that would only be eligible under the old RPS schedule given already signed electricity supply agreements. Exempt load would reduce estimated demand in the earlier years of the RPS increase under SB732, but nonetheless the RPS increase would have a substantial effect on increasing the demand for SRECs and solar supply in the state of Maryland.

SRECTrade will continue to track the status of this legislation. In the meantime, please feel free to contact us with any questions.

Trump Administration Establishes 30% Solar Panel Import Tariff

Posted February 1st, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On January 22nd, President Donald Trump’s administration announced that it approved a four-year tariff on imported crystalline silicon photovoltaic (CSPV) cells and modules. Effective February 7, 2018, the tariff imposes a 30% duty set to decline by 5% each following year. The first 2.5 gigawatts of CSPV products imported in each year will be exempt from the tariff.

The decision followed the U.S. International Trade Commission’s (ITC) unanimous determination that solar cell and module imports are inflicting “serious injury” on domestic manufacturers. Although the Commissioners recommended a variety of tariff rate structures, they agreed upon an increase in duties with an allowance for a limited quantity of imported cells in their proposal to the Trump administration.

The initial Year 1 tariff is expected to increase install costs by 10-15 cents per watt, which Greentech Media estimates could result in approximately a 10 percent reduction in U.S. installed solar capacity. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), of the 260,000 Americans employed in the solar industry, only 2,000 are manufacturing solar cells and modules. SEIA reports that the tariff could cause the loss of approximately 23,000 American jobs in 2018 alone.

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of January 2018

Posted January 24th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of January 17, 2018.

Notes: Due to the convergence of SREC prices across the DE, MD, OH, and PA SREC markets, methodology for calculating PJM GATS Registered MW figures was updated to represent cross-registration between similarly-priced markets. Please see the additional notes below for more information.

Due to the recent passage of Act No. 40 (see HB118) in Pennsylvania, the PA SREC market borders were closed to all future applications from out-of-state facilities. The PA Public Utilities Commission (PUC) will be determining whether or not to grandfather and protect certain out-of-state facilities already certified under the AEPS. At present, it is unclear what the outcome or timeline of this decision will be. Given the nuances of the law, it is possible that facilities that have existing SREC contracts in place will be allowed to maintain their PA SREC eligibility. This decision will naturally have a large impact on certified capacity in the PA SREC market; as a result, this monthly post considers both decision scenarios in the chart below. Please note that SRECTrade is uncertain of the final capacity that will be PA SREC eligible; the figures below represent all capacity available and all in-state capacity available today. Additionally, eligible SRECs issued in previous compliance periods will have an impact on available supply.

Please note that Ohio’s and Pennsylvania’s “PJM GATS Registered MW” figures actually decreased from last month’s Registered Capacity Update. These decreases are due to the de-certification of one multi-MW facility that was cross-certified in DE, OH, and PA. Since this facility’s capacity was larger than the increases in all other capacity during the last month, there were net certified-capacity decreases in these states. Naturally, this facility’s de-certification also impacted capacity growth in Delaware, although not enough to create negative growth.

Please also note the atypically large increase in Maryland’s “PJM GATS Registered MW” from last month (+97.2MW). This large increase is primarily due to one very large multi-MW facility obtaining certification in the MD market.

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of December 31, 2017, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,356.5MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2017: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA.

DC2017: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in DE, MD, and OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above. Please note the additional figures for PA In-State systems.

MD2017: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the December 31, 2017 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 166,364 facilities across 6,177.2MW registered in PJM GATS as of January 17, 2018.

590 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 3,194.7MW or 51.7% of the qualified capacity. There are 142 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,955.6MW or 31.7% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

SRECTrade to speak at DistribuTECH 2018 – January 24, 2018

Posted January 23rd, 2018 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s CEO, Steven Eisenberg, will be speaking at DistribuTECH 2018 on Wednesday, January 24th in San Antonio, TX. The panel, Building the Transactive Energy Marketplace, will be from 1:30 to 3:30 p.m. in Room 214C.

Alongside other distributed generation and energy specialists, Steven will discuss the infrastructure needed to support a transactive energy marketplace in which energy asset owners and other market participants buy and sell energy and other attributes. The panel will cover the capabilities and requirements needed to continue to facilitate the growth and development of the industry and overarching vision of a transactive energy marketplace. Topics covered will include advanced metering infrastructure, distributed intelligence, blockchain, and cloud computing.

A full conference agenda and materials can be found here: DistribuTECH 2018 – Building the Transactive Energy Marketplace.

New Jersey Senate Passes Concurrence on S-2276

Posted January 10th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

Update: Governor Chris Christie pocket vetoed Senate Bill 2276 (S-2276) when he left office on January 16, 2018.

Please note that the original blog post was slightly revised on January 11, 2018.

On Monday, January 8th, the New Jersey Senate passed the amended Senate Bill 2276 (S-2276), following the Assembly Telecommunications and Utilities Committee’s amendments from mid-2017. The bill now rests on the desk of outgoing Governor Chris Christie (R) for a decision. Although it appears likely that Gov. Christie will pocket veto the legislation when his term ends on Tuesday, January 16th, Governor-Elect Phil Murphy (D) has his eyes set on New Jersey accomplishing 100 percent clean energy by 2050 and leading New Jersey to regain its status as a national leader in solar.

The bill passed by a considerable margin (26-8), demonstrating a strong consensus for support of the Garden State’s renewable energy industry, and also sending an important message to Governor-Elect Murphy regarding the urgency of this legislation.

If signed into law, the bill would establish the New Jersey Solar Energy Study Commission and increase the state’s solar renewable energy portfolio standard. The commission is intended to analyze all aspects of New Jersey’s solar industry and report findings and recommendations to the Governor and Legislature, specifically:

  1. As to whether New Jersey’s solar renewable portfolio standard (RPS) should be modified and extended through a prescribed period, but at least through energy year 2031;
  2. The current trends in utility interconnection study processes and costs; and
  3. The status and future of the state’s solar renewable energy credit market

In the bill, the Legislature speculated that New Jersey’s current statutory solar RPS could result in the loss of over 120 MW of solar per year through 2021, over $240 million per year in lost solar projects, and 5,000 clean energy jobs per year. To ensure the continued success of New Jersey’s solar industry, it is critical that the state pass both interim and future long-term measures to stabilize the industry and promote long-term, sustainable growth.

SRECTrade will continue to provide updates on this and other New Jersey legislative efforts.

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of December 2017

Posted December 21st, 2017 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of December 20, 2017.

Notes: Due to the convergence of SREC prices across the DE, MD, OH, and PA SREC markets, methodology for calculating PJM GATS Registered MW figures was updated to represent cross-registration between similarly-priced markets. Please see the additional notes below for more information.

Due to the recent passage of Act No. 40 (see HB118) in Pennsylvania, the PA SREC market borders were closed to all future applications from out-of-state facilities. The PA Public Utilities Commission (PUC) will be determining whether or not to grandfather and protect certain out-of-state facilities already certified under the AEPS. At present, it is unclear what the outcome or timeline of this decision will be. Given the nuances of the law, it is possible that facilities that have existing SREC contracts in place will be allowed to maintain their PA SREC eligibility. This decision will naturally have a large impact on certified capacity in the PA SREC market; as a result, this monthly post considers both decision scenarios in the chart below. Please note that SRECTrade is uncertain of the final capacity that will be PA SREC eligible; the figures below represent all capacity available and all in-state capacity available today. Additionally, eligible SRECs issued in previous compliance periods will have an impact on available supply.

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of November 30, 2017, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,326.7MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2017: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA.

DC2017: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in DE, MD, and OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above. Please note the additional figures for PA In-State systems.

MD2017: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the November 30, 2017 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 163,798 facilities across 5,739.2MW registered in PJM GATS as of December 20, 2017.

590 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 3,109.0MW or 54.2% of the qualified capacity. There are 142 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,866.6MW or 32.5% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

IPA Files LTRRPP for ICC Approval

Posted December 19th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

On December 4th, the Illinois Power Agency (IPA) filed its Long-Term Renewable Resources Procurement Plan (LTRRPP or the Plan) for approval by the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC). The Plan is part of the implementation of Public Act 99-0906 (the “Future Energy Jobs Act”), which took effect on June 1, 2017.

The initial ICC Filing, including the Filing Petition, Filed Plan and appendices, and the redline comparison of the draft Plan and the Filed Plan are available on the IPA’s website here.

In response to comments received on the draft Plan, the IPA made several changes to the Filed Plan, including changes to the following:

  1. REC Pricing Model – changes to the input data and structural assumptions in the CREST-based model used to create prices for the Adjustable Block Program (ABP)
  2. Collateral Requirements – reducing the required collateral percentage from 10% of contract value to 5% for the ABP
  3. Consumer Protection – includes adjustments to Approved Vendor requirements and the removal of duplicative or unnecessary requirements
  4. 10 – 25 kW System Size Adder – the addition of a new size category of 10 kW – 25 kW
  5. Initial Block Subscription Cap – reducing the minimum opening window for Block 1 from 60 days to 45 days; imposing a 200% capacity threshold; and proposing a lottery system for applications received after the budget is exceeded
  6. “Green Marketing” Challenges – adopting a proposal presented by several commenters to develop a “brand” for participation in the ABP and to develop content around that brand, explaining the value of participation
  7. Calculation of Load for MidAmerican – slight increase in MidAmerican’s RPS goals and budgets
  8. Single Approved Vendor Model – imposing a 100 kW minimum project size Single Approved Vendor category
  9. Allocation of Alternative Compliance Payment (“ACPs”) – proposing that the balance of payments made during the transition period be held in reserve for future years’ programs and procurements
  10. Voluntary Capacity Factors – allowing for Approved Vendors to submit a voluntary capacity factor based on PV Watts or an equivalent tool
  11. “Small Subscriber” Community Solar Participation
  12. Adjustable Block Program Group Organization – allocating the service territories of any rural electric cooperatives and municipal utilities within MISO to Group A, and any such territories within PJM to Group B, including moving MidAmerican to Group A
  13. Brownfield Site Procurement Volume
  14. Co-Location Restrictions for Developers

The IPA provided a summary of the above changes, and those proposals not accepted, in its Filing Petition.

In addition, the revised Block Group REC Price schedule is provided below (Table 6-2 of the Plan):

Block Group REC Prices ($/REC)

Objections were due on December 18, 2017 with responses to objections due on Thursday, January 11, 2018. Replies to responses will then be due on Thursday, January 25, 2018. The ICC is expected to issue its decision by April 3, 2018. The ICC docket for the plan is accessible here.

Visit our blog for previous and future posts about Illinois’ RPS and the Long Term Plan.

DOER Files Proposed Final APS Regulations

Posted December 19th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

On December 15th, the Department of Energy Resources (DOER) filed its proposed final version of the 225 CMR 16.00 Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (APS) regulation with the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s Office. The official regulation is slated for publication in the State Registrar on December 29, 2017.

The filed version matches the version filed with the Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities, and Energy on November 15, 2017. The final unofficial version of the regulation, as filed with the Secretary, is available here.

In addition to the regulations, the DOER provided the following final Guidelines, which will be effective on December 29, 2017:

  • Guideline on Metering and Calculations – Part 1 (Formulas for Small and Intermediate Generation Units)
  • Guideline on Metering and Calculations – Part 2 (Metering for Intermediate and Large Generation Units)
  • Guideline on Metering and Calculations for Fuel Cell Generation Units
  • Guideline on Biomass, Biogas, and Biofuels for Renewable Thermal Generation Units
  • Guideline on Multipliers for Renewable Thermal Generation Units
  • Massachusetts Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard Biomass Reporting Procedures
  • Guideline on Reduction of Greenhouse Gases for Eligible Renewable Thermal Generation Units Using Eligible Woody Biomass

These guidelines are available on the DOER’s website here.

The DOER expects to release its new online APS Statement of Qualification Application for Renewable Thermal and Fuel Cell Generation Units by mid-January. SRECTrade will provide more information to interested stakeholders as it is made available by the DOER. Please visit our blog for continued updates.

The DOER’s announcement can be viewed here.

New Jersey SREC Update – November 2017

Posted November 22nd, 2017 by SRECTrade.

With the announcement of new NJ solar build data last week, we wanted to provide an update on the current status of New Jersey SREC supply and demand. Since our last update in June 2017, build over the last 6 months (through September) has declined, pacing at 22.7 MW/month. That is approximately a 23.7% decrease against the last 12 month (LTM) rate of 29.8 MW/month. Additionally, the 3 months ending September 2017 saw a 45.5% decline in total build to 48.1 MW for the quarter, against 88.2 MW for the 3 months ending June 2017.

Electricity load served for reporting year 2017, ending May 2017, is estimated to be up 1.3% over RY2016 to 75.2 million megawatt hours. This is a shift in the flat to declining trend the market has experienced since reporting year 2012. Given current build and scenarios based off the 29.8 MW/month LTM rate, the NJ SREC market can expect an oversupply of approximately 500,000 SRECs during reporting year 2018 (approximately 20-25% over the estimated RY2018 requirement).

With regards to pricing, since the beginning of September pricing in the spot and forward markets have experienced appreciation. Pricing for NJ2018 and NJ2019 vintages has risen by approximately 12-14%, while pricing for NJ2020 and NJ2021 vintages has increased by approximately 30%. Price increases for the current vintages could be attributed to slightly lower than expected build rates and annual activity taking place ahead of the basic generation service (BGS) electricity auction, scheduled in early February 2018. Looking forward, price appreciation could also be due to early BGS activity, but also potentially attributed to the possibility of increased RPS requirements, particularly in light of the recent election of NJ Governor Phil Murphy and his stance on clean energy initiatives.

For a complete update on the supply and demand outlook, see our presentation here.

SRECTrade will continue to provide updates as available. Thank you and wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!