New Jersey SREC Update – November 2017

Posted November 22nd, 2017 by SRECTrade.

With the announcement of new NJ solar build data last week, we wanted to provide an update on the current status of New Jersey SREC supply and demand. Since our last update in June 2017, build over the last 6 months (through September) has declined, pacing at 22.7 MW/month. That is approximately a 23.7% decrease against the last 12 month (LTM) rate of 29.8 MW/month. Additionally, the 3 months ending September 2017 saw a 45.5% decline in total build to 48.1 MW for the quarter, against 88.2 MW for the 3 months ending June 2017.

Electricity load served for reporting year 2017, ending May 2017, is estimated to be up 1.3% over RY2016 to 75.2 million megawatt hours. This is a shift in the flat to declining trend the market has experienced since reporting year 2012. Given current build and scenarios based off the 29.8 MW/month LTM rate, the NJ SREC market can expect an oversupply of approximately 500,000 SRECs during reporting year 2018 (approximately 20-25% over the estimated RY2018 requirement).

With regards to pricing, since the beginning of September pricing in the spot and forward markets have experienced appreciation. Pricing for NJ2018 and NJ2019 vintages has risen by approximately 12-14%, while pricing for NJ2020 and NJ2021 vintages has increased by approximately 30%. Price increases for the current vintages could be attributed to slightly lower than expected build rates and annual activity taking place ahead of the basic generation service (BGS) electricity auction, scheduled in early February 2018. Looking forward, price appreciation could also be due to early BGS activity, but also potentially attributed to the possibility of increased RPS requirements, particularly in light of the recent election of NJ Governor Phil Murphy and his stance on clean energy initiatives.

For a complete update on the supply and demand outlook, see our presentation here.

SRECTrade will continue to provide updates as available. Thank you and wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of November 2017

Posted November 17th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted.

Notes: Due to the convergence of SREC prices across the DE, MD, OH, and PA SREC markets, methodology for calculating PJM GATS Registered MW figures was updated to represent cross-registration between similarly-priced markets. Please see the additional notes below for more information.

Due to the recent passage of Act No. 40 (see HB118) in Pennsylvania, the PA SREC market borders were closed to all future applications from out-of-state facilities. The PA Public Utilities Commission (PUC) will be determining whether or not to grandfather and protect certain out-of-state facilities already certified under the AEPS. At present, it is unclear what the outcome or timeline of this decision will be. Given the nuances of the law, it is possible that facilities that have existing SREC contracts in place will be allowed to maintain their PA SREC eligibility. This decision will naturally have a large impact on certified capacity in the PA SREC market; as a result, this monthly post considers both decision scenarios in the chart below. Please note that SRECTrade is uncertain of the final capacity that will be PA SREC eligible; the figures below represent all capacity available and all in-state capacity available today. Additionally, eligible SRECs issued in previous compliance periods will have an impact on available supply.

This month, SRECTrade also observed a large increase of 54.4 MW in new MD-certified capacity. Nearly half of this increase (over 25.8MW) is from a commercial asset portfolio of 13 Maryland facilities obtaining certification in the MD SREC market, after having only been certified in the PA SREC market previously for the last 1-2 years.

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of November 15, 2017 (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of October 31, 2017, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,292.3MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2017: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA.

DC2017: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in DE, MD, and OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above. Please note the additional figures for PA In-State systems.

MD2017: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the 10/31/17 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 160,515 facilities across 5,459.6MW registered in PJM GATS as of 11/15/2017.

580 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 2,877.8MW or 52.7% of the qualified capacity. There are 137 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,672.8MW or 30.6% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

DOER Announces SMART Program Administrator & 100 MW RFP // SREC-II Deadline on March 31, 2018

Posted November 14th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

On November 13, 2017 the Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced that CLEAResult, Inc. will be the Solar Program Administrator for Massachusetts’s SMART Program.

The Distribution Companies have developed a request for proposals (RFP) for approximately 100 MW of solar projects in their respective utility service territories. The Distribution Companies will be hosting a bidder’s conference on Friday, November 17, 2017 at 1:00 PM EST to provide additional information and answer questions. Written comments on the RFP will be accepted through November 20, 2017 at 12:00 PM EST and should be submitted to ma.smart@clearesult.com. Bidders can submit an application on CLEAResult’s application website from November 27, 2017 – December 5, 2017 at 5:00 PM EST.  Results will be announced by the DOER by January 11, 2018. These results will establish the Block 1 Base Compensation Rates under the SMART Program.

The full announcement by the DOER can be found here.

As a reminder, systems must be mechanically complete or commercially operational by March 31, 2018 in order to participate in SREC-II under the current SREC Factors. Factors will be further reduced after this date but will remain at 0.8 for systems less than or equal to 25 kW.

Proposed Amendments to 310 CMR 7.75: Clean Energy Standard

Posted November 9th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

The Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA) and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP) have proposed amendments to 310 CMR 7.75: Clean Energy Standard. The amendments are intended to achieve greater consistency among all Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EOEEA) clean energy programs and policies.

The amendments, a background document, and a notice with information about attending a November 27, 2017 public hearing in Boston at 10:00am and submitting written comments, are available on the Commonwealth of Massachusetts’s website here. Additional information about 310 CMR 7.75, including relevant stakeholder comments, is also available on their website.

The MassDEP published 310 CMR 7.75: Clean Energy Standard as a final regulation to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions. For more information on the promulgation of the MA Global Warming Solutions Act regulations, please visit our recent blog post on the topic here.

SRECTrade to Speak at Solar Focus and RPS Summit – November 7-8, 2017

Posted November 6th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s Manager of Business Development and Operations, Tom MacKenty, will be speaking at The CESA RPS Summit on Tuesday, November 7th and Solar Focus on Wednesday, November 8th in Washington, D.C.

Alongside other renewable energy experts at the RPS Summit, Tom will discuss the status of voluntary markets for renewable energy and their interactions with the RPS Markets. At Solar Focus, Tom will participate in the 50% and Beyond: The New Age of the RPS panel discussion, where policy experts will discuss strategies for expanding renewable energy standards across the country. The panel will also explore the current efforts being made in Delaware and Maryland to expand and strengthen RPS standards.

Full conference agendas and materials can be found here for The CESA RPS Summit and Solar Focus.

SRECTrade to Speak at GTM U.S. Power & Renewables Summit – November 8, 2017

Posted November 6th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

On Wednesday, November 8, SRECTrade’s Director of Regulatory Affairs, Allyson Browne, will be speaking on a panel at GTM’s U.S. Power & Renewables Summit in Austin, Texas.

Allyson will join moderator Colin Smith, Analyst, Solar at GTM Research and fellow panelists Terry Grant, Managing Director at Marathon Capital, and Peter Mathews, General Manager, North America at Solar Edge, to discuss solar cost trends and long-term market implications. Allyson will focus on the interplay between the cost per watt of solar (including the impact of possible tariffs resulting from the Section 201 trade case), federal tax incentives like the ITC, and solar renewable energy credit markets, and how these cost and revenue streams contribute to development (or lack thereof) in the residential and C&I sectors.

The panel, How Low Can They Go: What is Driving Down Solar Cost and What are Longer-Term Market Implications?, will be held at 11:20 am on Wednesday morning. See the full agenda here.

SRECTrade Introduction Video

Posted November 2nd, 2017 by SRECTrade.

Here at SRECTrade, we are constantly working on making Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs) straightforward – efficient to manage, transparent access to markets, and easy to understand.

Regardless of whether you are a large solar portfolio manager or a residential system owner, SRECTrade exists to provide expertise in managing Solar RECs. We focus on accelerating the adoption of renewable energy by providing services and technology that minimizes the time, cost, and risk associated with achieving the benefits from SRECs.

In an effort to explain all this, SRECTrade recently produced a video outlining RECs and SRECTrade’s online platform and services.

To view the video, please click the image below.

PA Passes Act Restricting Geographical Eligibility for PA SRECs

Posted October 30th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

On October 30th, Pennsylvania Governor Wolf signed into law Act No. 40 (see HB 118), a Comprehensive Opioid Package containing, among other items, language amending the state’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards (AEPS). Originating in February 2017, HB118 was revised several times before passage in the House and the Senate in late October.

Amendments to the AEPS require solar photovoltaic systems to satisfy one of the following in order to be eligible for participation in the AEPS solar carve-out (PA SREC) program:

“(I) DIRECTLY DELIVER THE ELECTRICITY IT GENERATES TO A RETAIL CUSTOMER OF AN ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION COMPANY OR TO THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATED BY AN ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION COMPANY OPERATING WITHIN THIS COMMONWEALTH AND CURRENTLY OBLIGATED TO MEET THE COMPLIANCE REQUIREMENTS CONTAINED UNDER THE “ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PORTFOLIO STANDARDS ACT.”

(II) BE DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO THE ELECTRIC SYSTEM OF AN ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE OR MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC SYSTEM OPERATING WITHIN THIS COMMONWEALTH.

(III) CONNECT DIRECTLY TO THE ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION SYSTEM AT A LOCATION THAT IS WITHIN THE SERVICE TERRITORY OF AN ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION COMPANY OPERATING WITHIN THIS COMMONWEALTH.”

HB118 includes the following grandfathering language to protect certain systems already certified under the AEPS, but it is unclear how the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission (PUC) will interpret the language for certified but out-of-state generators.

(2) NOTHING UNDER THIS SECTION OR SECTION 4 OF THE “ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PORTFOLIO STANDARDS ACT” SHALL AFFECT ANY OF THE FOLLOWING:

(I) A CERTIFICATION ORIGINATING WITHIN THE GEOGRAPHICAL BOUNDARIES OF THIS COMMONWEALTH GRANTED PRIOR TO THE EFFECTIVE DATE OF THIS SECTION OF A SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY GENERATOR AS A QUALIFYING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCE ELIGIBLE TO MEET THE SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SHARE OF THIS COMMONWEALTH’S ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PORTFOLIO COMPLIANCE REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE “ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PORTFOLIO STANDARDS ACT.”

(II) CERTIFICATION OF A SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM WITH A BINDING WRITTEN CONTRACT FOR THE SALE AND PURCHASE OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY CREDITS DERIVED FROM SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY SOURCES ENTERED INTO PRIOR TO THE EFFECTIVE DATE OF THIS SECTION.

The revisions are effective as of the date of the Act (October 30, 2017). Accordingly, any new solar photovoltaic system seeking certification in the PA AEPS solar carve-out (SREC) program as of this date must meet the eligibility requirements above. The full text of the Act is available here.

SRECTrade will provide updates on the Act and on the PUC’s interpretation as soon as more information is made available.

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of October 2017

Posted October 24th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted.

Note: Due to the convergence of SREC prices across the DE, MD, OH, and PA SREC markets, methodology for calculating PJM GATS Registered MW figures was updated to represent cross-registration between similarly-priced markets. Please see the additional notes below for more information.

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of October 18, 2017 (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar), to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of September 30, 2017, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,271.2MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2017: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA.

DC2017: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in DE, MD, and OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above.

MD2017: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA as of the date noted. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the 9/30/17 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 157,406 facilities across 5,347.7MW registered in PJM GATS as of 10/18/2017.

560 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 2,798.1MW or 52.3% of the qualified capacity. There are 135 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,653.1MW or 30.9% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

Illinois Fall 2017 Utility DG Procurement Results

Posted October 20th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

In October 2017, SRECTrade participated in the Fall round of the Illinois 2017 Utility Distributed Generation Procurement. SRECTrade was among the three winning suppliers of the 5-year REC contracts awarded through the Fall 2017 Utility DG Procurement. A summary of average winning bid prices and number of RECs can be found below.  Please note that the number of RECs quoted by the IPA is in annual quantities. For the Illinois Power Agency’s official announcement of the results, please click here.

The IPA procured 40,765 RECs during the Fall round, which fulfilled 30% of the 2017 procurement target (138,510 total RECs over five years between both rounds). The remaining volume of 97,745 RECs was accounted for by the Spring round.

There are no future supplemental photovoltaic or distributed generation procurement rounds announced at this time. SRECTrade will be participating in the IL Adjustable Block Program, scheduled to roll out in mid-2018. For more information on this program, please visit our blog post on the topic.