Posts Tagged ‘SACP’

NJ Governor Christie Signs Bill to Increase Solar Requirements

Posted July 23rd, 2012 by SRECTrade.

Today, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie signed into law legislation to increase the state’s solar goals by amending the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). Both Senate Bill 1925 and Assembly Bill 2966 were passed on June 25, 2012. The bill, which attempts to address the state’s SREC oversupply, adjusts the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Solar requirements by amending the following:

1) Solar RPS Requirements Increased beginning in Reporting Year 2014: Beginning June 1, 2013 the market will see an increase in SREC requirements, shifting the state’s solar goals from a fixed megawatt hour requirement to a percentage based requirement. Although the requirements increase in the near term, later dated requirements decline over the current solar goals.

2) New Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP) Schedule: Beginning in the 2014 energy year, the SACP will be reduced to $339 declining to $239 by 2028.

3) Grid Supply Projects Capped at 80 MW Per Year in 2014-2016: In 2014, 2015, and 2016 only 80 MW of aggregated grid supply solar can be installed. Certain exemptions for landfills and parking lots have been made. The capacity of a single project shall not be greater than 10 MW.

4) SREC Life Extended to 5 Years: SRECs will be eligible to meet compliance obligations the year in which they are generated and the following four compliance periods.

5) Rules Set for Public Entity Net Metering Aggregation: The bill implements regulations for aggregate net metering for public entities such as schools, counties, or other municipal agencies.

NJ Solar RPS in 2014 and Beyond: Summary of Solar % Requirements and SACP

The charts below demonstrate the % Solar Requirements set under the new bill as well as the proposed SACP schedule. It is important to note that the existing 2012 and 2013 reporting year (RY) requirements do not change under this piece of legislation. RY2012 and RY2013 have an SREC requirement of 442,000 and 596,000 SRECs, respectively. Additionally, the SACP for RY2012 and RY2013 are $658 and $641, respectively.

Slow Down New Jersey, You’re Installing Too Much Solar – The NJ SREC Market Looking Forward

On July 19, 2012, the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy estimated installed solar capacity to be 831.6 MW as of 6/30/12. This represents an increase of approximately 29 MW from the prior month. Also, the state’s solar project pipeline increased by approximately 30 MW to 590 MW as of 6/30/12 from 560 MW the month prior.

As of the latest SREC issuance data in PJM GATS, we estimate the RY2012 market to be oversupplied by approximately 230,000 SRECs. Taking into consideration this oversupply and installed capacity through 6/30/12, the RY2013 market will be oversupplied by more than 600,000 SRECs without any new projects installed in the remaining compliance period (July 2012 – May 2013).

Looking forward to 2014, the state needs to realize a substantial reduction in installed solar capacity on a monthly basis to see the market come into balance in future reporting years. Using similar forecast cases from our prior analysis, Case 1 shows oversupply by approximately 97,000 SRECs through 2015. This is under a scenario in which install rates decline to 18.8 MW/month; representing half of the last twelve month (LTM) average – now 37.6 MW/month through June 2012.

The legislation signed into law today is a step forward to allow ongoing development of solar projects in the Garden State. This bill was needed to ensure companies servicing the NJ solar market are able to continue forward, existing solar projects see some stabilization, and rate payers are protected from excessively high SREC prices. The future development of projects needs to be monitored closely by all stakeholders as this bill requires current install rates to decline in the near term for the market to come into balance with the revised RPS requirements in future reporting years.

A Break In The Clouds? – NJ Legislature Passes S1925/A2966

Posted June 26th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

Introduction

On June 25, 2012, S1925/A2966, now aligned with each other, passed the New Jersey Senate and House. Next, the bill needs to be signed into law by the Governor, which given his recent public support is expected to be completed within the next couple weeks. The bill, which attempts to address the state’s SREC oversupply, adjusts the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Solar requirements by amending the following:

1) Solar RPS Requirements Increased beginning in Reporting Year 2014: Beginning June 1, 2013 the market will see an increase in SREC requirements, shifting the state’s solar goals from a fixed megawatt hour requirement to a percentage based requirement. Although the requirements increase in the near term, later dated requirements decline over the current solar goals.

2) New Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP) Schedule: Beginning in the 2014 energy year, the SACP will be reduced to $339 declining to $239 by 2028.

3) Grid Supply Projects Capped at 80 MW Per Year in 2014-2016: In 2014, 2015, and 2016 only 80 MW of aggregated grid supply solar can be installed. Certain exemptions for landfills and parking lots have been made. The capacity of a single project shall not be greater than 10 MW.

4) SREC Life Extended to 5 Years: SRECs will be eligible to meet compliance obligations the year in which they are generated and the following four compliance periods.

5) Rules Set for Public Entity Net Metering Aggregation: The bill implements regulations for aggregate net metering for public entities such as schools, counties, or other municipal agencies.

Summary of the Legislation’s Solar % Requirements and SACP

The charts below demonstrate the % Solar Requirements set under the new bill as well as the proposed SACP schedule.

More Solar Now, Less Solar Later – How Does This Compare to the Current RPS Solar Requirements?

While S1925/A2966 increases the RPS requirements in the near term, by 900,000 or more SRECs each year in the 2014-2020 reporting years, beginning in 2024 the bill reduces the SREC requirements. The table below shows the current RPS requirements vs. the number of SRECs estimated to be required under the new legislation.

Oversupply Likely Through at Least 2014, Possibly Longer – What Does This Mean For the Market Moving Forward?

While increasing the RPS requirements is needed to address NJ’s current solar oversupply, the requirements implemented under S1925/A2966 do not necessarily put the market back into under supply. The days of SRECs trading up against the SACP at levels of $600+/SREC are long behind us for 2 reasons: 1) The SACP will naturally push pricing down to levels below $339 when it comes into effect in 2014 and 2) current installed capacity points to oversupply should the market continue at recent rates. This means that if the market is to see an under supplied scenario (i.e. a seller’s market), the amount of solar installed needs to slow down. We would naturally expect to see this take place given the removal of certain federal incentives and a decline in SREC prices, but this decline has been taking somewhat longer than expected in the first half of 2012 (i.e. likely a result of projects being wrapped up from the end of calendar year 2011).

The table below demonstrates the current RPS requirements vs. the estimated requirements under S1925/A2966 assuming no new additional capacity is installed after the NJ Office of Clean Energy’s May 31, 2012 capacity estimates.

It is important to note that the table above shows that regardless of the impact of the new legislation, the 2013 compliance period is oversupplied by approximately 575,000 at a minimum (i.e. the unlikely case of no build throughout the period).

Below, similar to our prior posts, 3 scenarios are analyzed. The first assumes future build continues at half of the last twelve month (LTM) average rate, 38.6 MW/month through May 31, 2012. The second assumes the market continues to build at its LTM average rate and the third case assumes install rates grow adding 1.5x the LTM average rate.

The table below shows the impact of the three scenarios presented above as compared to the estimated SREC requirements under S1925/A2966. If installation rates are able to decrease to half of the LTM average rate, the market will see a slight under supply beginning in 2014. Cases in which the market continues at current rates or increases above current monthly capacity installed show substantial oversupply in each of the periods forecast.

In conclusion, it is important that the solar industry recognizes that if this legislation is signed into law, it does not allow for the rate of installs to see continued growth. The bill merely helps address the oversupply by increasing the near term requirements and putting some limitations on larger scale solar projects. It will be necessary that all industry stakeholders track the market’s progress closely to clearly understand how supply is pacing relative to the SRECs required during that compliance period.

New Jersey Legislation Update: A2966

Posted June 7th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

***UPDATE: As of the close of June 7, 2012, the NJ legislature noted A2966 passed out of the Assembly Telecommunications and Utilities Committee. The bill will now move on to its second reading.***

On Thursday, June 7, 2012 at 10 a.m. ET the New Jersey Assembly’s Telecommunications and Utilities committee will review Assembly Bill 2966. A2966, sponsored by Assemblyman Chivukula, is the assembly’s version of S1925, which passed out of the Senate on 5/31/12; 23 (Yes), 9 (No), 8 (Not voting). While both bills propose to revise NJ’s Solar Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), A2966, proposes slightly different revisions as compared to S1925. For a detailed review of S1925, see our prior note here. Should A2966 pass out of committee, the bill will be voted on in the Assembly. If it passes out of the Assembly, A2966 and S1925 would have to be reconciled prior to its review by the Governor’s office before ultimately being signed into law.

Summary of A2966

Similar to S1925, A2966 proposes a few substantial changes that would influence New Jersey’s RPS requirements beginning in the 2014 compliance year (June 1, 2013 – May 31, 2014). The chart below demonstrates the proposed % based Solar requirement outlined in A2966 vs. S1925. Under A2966, the Solar RPS requirements would change beginning in the 2014 compliance year, with a requirement of 1.99% increasing to 4.63% by the 2028 energy year. Additionally, the second chart below shows the proposed Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP) schedule in A2966 vs. S1925.

How Does A2966 Impact New Jersey’s Future SREC Requirements?

The table below shows the SREC quantities required under the current RPS versus the estimates required under the A2966.

Similar to S1925, A2966 takes the steps needed to prop up the NJ SREC market, but a closer look suggests that even if this bill is signed into law the market could continue to be oversupplied. The table below shows the current RPS and estimated requirements under A2966 through 2017. Both scenarios demonstrate what the markets look like given installed capacity through April 30, 2012, and assume that excess, eligible SRECs from prior periods are used to meet the compliance obligations in the current period. Under the current RPS requirements, assuming no new build, the market is oversupplied through energy year 2016. Applying these same figures to the estimated SRECs required if A2966 is implemented, the market is short approximately 198,000 SRECs in 2014 (the equivalent of approximately 165.0 MW operational all year long).

Although the requirements under the current installed capacity and proposed changes under A2966 put the EY2014 market at under supply with no new build, the likelihood of that is minimal. Over the last twelve months (LTM), through April 2012, the average MW installed per month has been 36.8 MW. That figure over the last 6 months has reached 46.6 MW/month. Given the recent historic build rates, we have analyzed 3 different scenarios in which the following cases are assumed:

1) Case 1 – shows half of the LTM average MW added per month throughout the course of the annual forecast periods;

2) Case 2 – shows the LTM average MW added per month remains the same throughout the annual forecast periods;

3) Case 3 – shows 1.5x the LTM average MW added per month throughout the annual forecast periods.

Note, for the purpose of obtaining an ending balance of MW capacity as of May 31, 2012, the table below assumes another 36.8 MW is added in the month of May 2012.

Under A2966, the market is less oversupplied or under supplied depending on the case displayed above. One of the main differences between the table above and our estimates under S1925, is that if installations slow down to half of the LTM monthly average rate, Case 1, the market would be oversupplied though 2015; whereas Case 1 under S1925 would see under supply in 2015. It is important to note that each case assumes all excess, eligible SRECs from the prior period are utilized to meet the current year RPS requirements.

As demonstrated in the scenario analysis, the market would need to substantially slow down current monthly build rates to allow supply to come in line with demand in the future RPS compliance periods. A2966 attempts to lessen the impact of oversupply, but even under the scenarios above, all three cases show oversupply through at least 2015. Additionally, the trade-off of an increased Solar RPS % comes at the cost of reducing the SACP. Thus, although the NJ solar industry can continue to build projects at a reduced rate, new installs will have to be underwritten with the understanding that less value will be derived from SRECs.

Note: Percentage based SREC requirements have been forecast based on EIA Report updated 11/15/11 “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh per MW in New Jersey.

Trade-offs Begin – NJ S1925 Update

Posted May 18th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

For a PDF copy of this post click here.

Yesterday, the Senate Environment and Energy Committee passed S1925 out of committee. Coming out of the session, the bill was revised to increase the Solar Renewable Portfolio (RPS) % requirements and decrease the Solar Alternative Compliance (SACP) schedule. Next, the bill will move on to a second reading in the Senate. The charts below demonstrate the difference between the original and revised versions of S1925.

How Does This Impact New Jersey’s Future SREC Requirements?

In our last research note on S1925, we took a look at a summary of the bill and provided analysis on how it could impact the New Jersey SREC market. Given the revision of the Solar RPS % requirements, below is an update to the original analysis.

The table below shows the SREC quantities required under the current RPS versus the estimates required under the revised version of S1925. Although S1925 increases the RPS requirements in the near term, the % requirements estimate a decrease vs. the current requirements beginning in 2024.

While the revised version of S1925 takes the steps needed to prop up the NJ SREC market, a closer look suggests that even if this bill comes to fruition the market could continue to be oversupplied. The table below shows the current RPS and revised S1925 requirements through 2017. Both scenarios demonstrate what the markets look like given estimates of installed capacity through April 30, 2012, and assume that excess, eligible SRECs from prior periods are used to meet the compliance obligations in the current period. Under the current RPS requirements, assuming no new build, the market is oversupplied through energy year 2016. Applying these same figures to the estimated SRECs required if the revised version of S1925 is implemented, the market is short approximately 411,800 SRECs in 2014 (the equivalent of approximately 343.2 MW operational all year long).

Although the requirements under the current installed capacity and proposed changes under the revised version of S1925 put the market at under supply with no new build, the likelihood of that is minimal. Over the last twelve months (LTM), the average MW installed per month has been 36.0 MW. That figure over the last 6 months has reached 44.9 MW/month. Given the recent historic build rates, we have analyzed 3 different scenarios in which the following cases are assumed:

1) Case 1 – shows half of the LTM average MW added per month throughout the course of the annual forecast periods;

2) Case 2 – shows the LTM average MW added per month remains the same throughout the annual forecast periods;

3) Case 3 – shows 1.5x the LTM average MW added per month throughout the annual forecast periods.

Note, for the purpose of obtaining an ending balance of MW capacity as of May 31, 2012, the table below assumes another 36.0 MW is added in the month of May 2012.

Under the revised version of S1925, the market is less oversupplied or under supplied depending on the case displayed above. One of the main differences between the table above an our original estimates is that if installations slow down to half of the LTM monthly average rate, Case 1, the market could be under supplied as early as 2015. It is important to note that each case assumes all excess, eligible SRECs from the prior period are utilized to meet the current year RPS requirements.

As demonstrated in the scenario analysis, the market would need to substantially slow down current monthly build rates to allow supply to come in line with demand in the future RPS compliance periods. The revised version of S1925 attempts to lessen the impact of oversupply, but even under the updated table above, all three cases show oversupply through at least 2014. Additionally, the trade off of an increased Solar RPS % came at the cost of reducing the SACP. Thus, although the NJ solar industry can continue to build projects at a reduced rate, new installs will have to be underwritten with the understanding that less value will be derived from SRECs.

Note: Percentage based SREC requirements have been forecast based on EIA Report updated 11/15/11 “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh per MW in New Jersey.

Proposed New Jersey Solar Bill May Not Solve SREC Woes

Posted May 16th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

For a PDF copy of this post click here.

Introduction

Senators Bob Smith and Stephen Sweeny recently introduced New Jersey Senate Bill 1925. The bill proposes to amend New Jersey’s current Solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements in attempt to help stabilize the oversupplied SREC market. The bill is currently in draft form and is scheduled to be heard by the New Jersey Environment and Energy Committee on Thursday, May 17, 2012.

Based on the information presented below, the proposed version of S1925, while increasing the near term Solar RPS requirements, will likely still leave the market oversupplied. This note summarizes the key points in the draft legislation and quantifies the near term and long term impacts it would have on the SREC market if passed into law.

Summary of S1925

Senate Bill 1925 proposes a few substantial changes that would influence New Jersey’s RPS requirements beginning in the 2014 compliance year (June 1, 2013 – May 31, 2014). The chart below demonstrates the change from a fixed SREC requirement under the current RPS to a % based Solar requirement under S1925. The Solar RPS requirements would change beginning in the 2014 compliance year, with a requirement of 1.832% increasing to 3.730% by the 2028 energy year.

Additionally, the table below shows the SREC quantities required under the current RPS versus the estimates required under S1925. While S1925 increases the RPS requirements in the near term, the % requirements estimate a decrease vs. the current requirements beginning in 2023.

Beyond the proposed changes in SREC requirements, S1925 would implement a new fixed Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP) schedule. The schedule reduces the SACP beginning in 2014 to $350/SREC declining to $252/SREC in 2028. The implementation of this schedule will cap SRECs at a price of $350 in 2014 and decrease in future periods. The table below demonstrates the proposed schedule as compared to the current RPS requirements.

In addition to S1925’s proposed SREC and SACP changes, the bill also addresses a few other areas:

1) An SREC’s useful life would extend from 3 to 5 years; giving it eligibility in the year in which it is issued and the following four energy years.

2) During 2014, 2015, and 2016, approved non-net metered grid supply projects cannot exceed more than 100 MW in total aggregated capacity each year. Grid supply projects located on brownfields are not limited under this stipulation. After 2016, the approval of grid supply projects would be subject to review by the Board of Public Utilities (BPU).

3) Solar RPS requirements would automatically increase by 20% for the remainder of the schedule in the event that the following two conditions are met: 1) the number of SRECs generated meets or exceeds the requirement for three consecutive reporting years, beginning with energy year 2014 and 2) the price for SRECs purchased by entities with renewable energy portfolio standards obligations in each of the same three consecutive reporting years is less than the current SREC price in the year prior to the three consecutive reporting years (i.e. if the price in 2014, 2015, and 2016 is less than the 2013 price and the number of SRECs exceeds the requirement in each of these years, the 20% increase in the RPS will be triggered).

What Does This Mean for the NJ SREC Market?

While S1925 takes the steps needed to prop up the NJ SREC market, a closer look at the numbers suggest that even if this bill comes to fruition the market could continue to be oversupplied. The table below shows the current and proposed S1925 RPS requirements through 2017. Both scenarios demonstrate what the markets look like given estimates of installed capacity through April 30, 2012, and assume that excess, eligible SRECs from prior periods are used to meet the compliance obligations in the current period. Under the current RPS requirements, assuming no new build, the market is oversupplied through energy year 2016. Applying these same figures to the estimated SRECs required if S1925 is implemented, the market is short approximately 118,500 SRECs in 2014 (the equivalent of approximately 98.8 MW operational all year long).

Although the requirements under the current installed capacity and proposed changes under S1925 put the market at under supply with no new build, the likelihood of that is minimal. Over the last twelve months (LTM), the average MW installed per month has been 36.0 MW. That figure over the last 6 months has reached 44.9 MW/month. Given the recent historic build rates, we have analyzed 3 different scenarios in which the following cases are assumed:

1) Case 1 – shows half of the LTM average MW added per month throughout the course of the annual forecast periods;

2) Case 2 – shows the LTM average MW added per month remains the same throughout the annual forecast periods;

3) Case 3 – shows 1.5x the LTM average MW added per month throughout the annual forecast periods.

Note, for the purpose of obtaining an ending balance of MW capacity as of May 31, 2012, the table below assumes another 36.0 MW is added in the month of May 2012.

In each of the 3 cases presented above, the market ends up in oversupply through at least 2016. It is important to note that each case assumes all excess, eligible SRECs from the prior period are utilized to meet the current year RPS requirements.

As demonstrated in the scenario analysis, the market would need to substantially slow down current monthly build rates to allow supply to come in line with demand in the future RPS compliance periods. It‘s unlikely that build rates will decline fast enough to protect from future oversupply. This bill does not allow for an increase in build rates (it requires a decrease) and cannot be used as a justification for an increase in PV installation growth.

Reaching the install rates shown in Case 1 (approx. 18 MW/month) should be within reach despite the restrictions put on grid supply projects. Additionally, the potential introduction of new EDC SREC programs, as well as historic build rates in the residential and commercial sectors, will also contribute to meeting the levels outlined in Case 1. Clearly, SREC pricing and availability of forward contracts to support new project development will impact future build rates, but even in markets with an oversupply of solar (i.e. PA), projects continue to be built without much regard for the current SREC environment.

How Does this Impact the 2012 and 2013 energy years?

Under the current draft of S1925, the RPS requirements would be unaffected in 2012 and 2013. The 2012 generation period will come to a close at the end of May 2012. Compliance buyers will have until approximately the end of September to wrap up their purchases before finalizing RPS reports with the BPU. As it currently stands, we estimate the NJ2012 market to see an excess of approximately 180,000 SRECs. Recent over the counter trading has increased to levels between $125 and $135/SREC, up from the last SRECTrade auction clearing price at just above $115/SREC.

The Electric Distribution Companies (EDCs), or regulated utilities, in NJ will be holding an auction on Thursday, May 17, 2012. Recent announcements show that as many as 33,000 NJ2012 SRECs will be available for sale during this auction. Given these volumes, 2012 demand may be reduced after this auction.

In addition to the 2012 energy year, the 2013 compliance period is fundamentally oversupplied. Current estimates show the 2013 period will see an excess of approximately 496,000 SRECs. This estimate takes into consideration the excess SRECs from 2012 and installed capacity estimates through April 2012. The 2013 forward market has recently traded above the 2012 vintage, but given the fundamental oversupply it is likely pricing will trend downward throughout the 2013 compliance period beginning June 1, 2012 (note the first 2013 vintage SRECs will not be issued in GATS and available for delivery until the end of July 2012).

SRECTrade will continue to keep a close eye on the S1925 legislative process as it makes its way through the Senate Environment and Energy Committee and the remaining requirements needed before it can be signed into law.

Note: Percentage based SREC requirements have been forecast based on EIA Report updated 11/15/11 “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh per MW in New Jersey.

MA DOER Releases Solar Carve-out ACP Guideline

Posted December 29th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

On December 28, 2011, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced that after reviewing the public comments on the suggested 10-year Forward Schedule for the Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP or ACP) rate, they published a guideline to establish the 10-year rolling ACP rate schedule. This guideline will act as an interim step to implement permanent regulatory change. The DOER will be working to revise the existing regulations to implement the new ACP schedule into the Solar Carve-Out program. It will replace the existing ACP rules that provided the DOER the discretion to reduce the ACP on an annual basis.

The DOER noted the following in its release:

“DOER recognizes the importance for project developers and project financers, along with retail electric suppliers with compliance obligations, to have greater certainty of the ACP Rate further into the future.  Additional certainty is expected to enhance parties’ abilities to estimate expected SREC revenue streams and to facilitate project financing and negotiations for long-term contracts for SRECs.  The ACP rate must be sufficient to ensure sufficient project profitability to stimulate market growth to meet the program goals, but avoid unnecessary costs to ratepayers”

DOER recognizes the importance for project developers and project financers, along with
retail electric suppliers with compliance obligations, to have greater certainty of the ACP Rate
further into the future.  Additional certainty is expected to enhance parties’ abilities to estimate
expected SREC revenue streams and to facilitate project financing and negotiations for long-term
contracts for SRECs.  The ACP rate must be sufficient to ensure sufficient project profitability to
stimulate market growth to meet the program goals, but avoid unnecessary costs to ratepayer

The ACP schedule to be implemented is at the values initially proposed. The table below outlines the schedule. Over the course of the 2012 and 2013 compliance periods, the rate will stay set at $550 per SREC and decline by 5% per year thereafter. Additionally, by January 31 of each year, the DOER will announce the new 10th year price in order to maintain a complete 10 year schedule at all times.

MA SACP Schedule 8_2_11

Brad Bowery to Speak at PV Power Generation Mid-West & East Conference

Posted October 28th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

The PV Power Generation, Mid-West & East conference will be held from 8th – 9th November 2011, at the Marriott in Downtown New York. This event promises to be an in-depth study of large scale solar power generation in the Mid-West and East. Local utilities, state regulators, grid operators and land and building operators will be attending, and it will be a vital meeting point for those who wish to expand their operations in these regions.

Key topics influencing the solar market in the Mid-West and East to be covered includes

  • REC Markets
  • Legislative updates
  • Site Sourcing
  • Grid connection issues

SRECTrade CEO Brad Bowery will be speaking at the conference and will discuss several key issues affecting SREC markets such as

  • The current landscape of supply and demand in SREC markets
  • Key benefits of an in-state SREC market
  • Variations of SREC program in each state, and how to evaluate them
  • Essential ingredients for creating a successful SREC market
  • How solar can compete with other renewable technologies in the green space
  • The intricacies of Solar Alternative Compliance Payments(SACP) in each state
  • Obtaining a long term SREC contract

View the conference agenda to find out more, and register here.

Pennsylvania Solar Advocacy Day (Monday, Oct. 24th)

Posted September 27th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

On Monday, October 24th PennFuture, Vote Solar, the Solar Alliance, and SUNWPA will hold a Solar Advocacy Day and Evening Reception at the Capitol building in Harrisburg. If you are part of Pennsylvania solar community this is an opportunity to educate policymakers and the media about solar in your state. The main focus of the advocacy day will be the support of the Solar Jobs Bill, which we’ve written a few blog postings about.

Here are the websites for the participating groups:

Vote Solar: national grassroots solar advocacy group
PennFuture: Pennsylvania environmental advocacy group
Solar Alliance: state-focused solar industry group
SUNWPA (Solar Unified Network of Western Pennsylvania): sub-group of PennFuture without a formal website

Click here to take action. Use the link to let your local PA state representative know that you support solar in PA.

If you have an advocacy event that you’d like SRECTrade to know about please email installers@srectrade.com

PA Market Update

Posted July 28th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

The Pennsylvania 2011 SREC compliance year has seen a substantial amount of solar development. Solar capacity registered within the state has lead to a significant oversupply resulting in an 85% decline in spot market trading throughout the course of the 2011 reporting year.

Since September of 2010, PA SRECs have dropped from $300/SREC to $50/SREC.  As of July 25, 2011, the 115.7 MW of registered generation has far outpaced the 2011 RPS requirements of 18 MW.  This has been the result of additional PA solar incentives, on top of the SREC program, and a large influx of out-of-state systems; of the 115.7 MW registered in PA, 24.7 MW are located out-of-state.

Fortunately, Representative Chris Ross has proposed an amendment to the PA Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard.  The amendment would modify the eligibility criteria so that only in-state systems could register in Pennsylvania after January 1, 2012.  Furthermore, the solar carve-out requirements for energy years 2013, 2014, and 2015 would increase from approximately 71 MW, 118 MW and 205 MW to 207 MW, 238 MW, and 290 MW, respectively.  These proposed changes should strengthen the market by increasing solar requirements and closing off out of state supply.  However, the oversupply of SRECs in 2011 and 2012 will carry over into the 2013 solar year and may keep prices low.  Given the legislature is out of session until October, further development will not occur until late 2011.

If new legislation does get passed, the market may shift from an oversupplied market to an undersupplied market.  This shift could result in an increase in future SREC pricing. One of the determining factors for price is the Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP).  In some states, NJ for example, the ACP is set by law and is known for future years.  Buyers know exactly what the alternative payment will be, and thus have a basis for the maximum value of an SREC.  In PA however, the future ACP is not known.  The ACP is calculated based on the average price paid for an SREC during the current year with weighting to include solar rebates.  For Chris Ross’s amendment to be truly successful, it will not only have to address the oversupply, but the ACP price as well.

To get involved with advocating for solar legislation, the Pennsylvania Division of the Mid-Atlantic Energy Industries Association (PASEIA) is a group of solar professionals who advocate for the interests of solar energy and a strong local PA industry.  Their blog has some good information on the status of the bill.

PA SREC Market – Proposed Legislation and Current Capacity

PA MW Forecast

Note: Capacity (MW) forecast based on PA RPS requirements and SRECTrade estimates.  Capacity (MW) figures presented for May 2010, May 2011, and July 2011 based on registered systems in GATS as of date listed. The current requirements (i.e. green line) as of July 2011 demonstrates the capacity (MW) required for the 2012 reporting year; approximately 44 MW. Figures for 2013-2015 represent the estimated amount of installed capacity (MW) needed on average throughout the compliance year.

NJ 2011 Energy Master Plan – Solar RPS on Track

Posted June 10th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

On June 7, 2011, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced the issuance of the state’s draft of the 2011 Energy Master Plan (EMP). By way of background, the EMP is a road map describing the energy goals of the state’s executive branch. The plan is required to be issued and updated every 3 years.  For details of the 2011 draft please click here. For details on the 2008 EMP click here.

Overall, the report outlines the continued implementation of the NJ Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) solar carve-out. As the report stands, there is no commentary made that would indicate a substantial change to the existing program. The following provides more insight into the aspects of the report that touch specifically on the RPS solar requirements.

The currently legislated RPS target in New Jersey is 22.5%. Of the several goals set forth in 2008 EMP, one sought to surpass this RPS target by achieving 30% of the state’s electricity needs from renewable sources by 2020. The recently released 2011 Draft EMP lays out 5 goals, one of which is to “Maintain support for the renewable energy portfolio standard of 22.5% of energy from renewable sources by 2021.”

The 2011 Draft EMP demonstrates support for behind-the-meter PV installations, highlighting solar’s ability to achieve reduction in carbon emissions and supporting a solar industry in the state,  while also taking into consideration the cost associated with solar incentives to ratepayers. The document does not call for a reduction in the existing solar carve-out, but does indicate the following,

“As the all-in capital costs for diverse solar technologies continue to decline, the Board should take action to reduce the SACP through 2025.  Doing so will not undermine new solar projects that are worthwhile, but will reasonably minimize the cost burden borne by nonparticipants.”

The Christie administration explains the benefit of larger scale solar projects while noting that they “…should be considered in addition to, not in lieu of, smaller-scale, grid-connected applications.”

The document highlights the fixed SREC requirements implemented by the Solar Energy Advancement and Fair Competition Act (SEAFCA) introduced in January 2010. Instead of a percentage-based solar requirement, this act insulated the requirement from fluctuating electricity usage by implementing targets in fixed gigawatt-hour terms. This proves beneficial, as part of New Jersey’s energy goals include demand response and energy efficiency initiatives that plan to reduce overall electricity usage.

Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP):

1) The current SACP extends through 2016; the SEAFCA requires the BPU to set the schedule through 2026.

2) No time frame is required, but industry stakeholders suggest the implementation of a schedule to provide certainty to debt and equity investors enabling solar development.

EMP Policy Direction and Recommendations regarding the solar carve-out are as follows:

1) Reduce the SACP: One proposal recommends the reduction of the SACP by 20% in 2016 and 2.54% each year thereafter.

2) Subject Solar Renewable Incentives to a Cost Benefit Test: The EMP mentions, “Solar generation can contribute to the reliability of the grid…” and continues by stating, “…subsidies should enhance job growth and retention objectives and should contribute to reduction in taxes without inadvertently transferring wealth from non-participants to participants throughout New Jersey.”

3) Promote Solar PV Installations that Provide Economic and Environmental Benefit: Support for community solar power is encouraged, allowing economies of scale to give residents access to what otherwise could be an expensive individual solar system. Community solar projects help provide decreased electricity usage through the local utility and can spread the cost of distribution system upgrades among the ownership group.

Overall, the 2011 Draft Energy Master Plan lays out the goals for a diversified mix of energy sources throughout the state of New Jersey. The existing overall RPS targets and specific solar carve-out requirements appear to be a priority of the Christie administration. It is clear that the Governor’s office is focused on reducing the economic impact of implementing the RPS while enhancing electricity security and job creation. The EMP has no substantive proposals that should cause concern for stakeholders participating in the state’s SREC market, but at the same time does not include any discussion of expanding New Jersey’s solar goals to continue adoption beyond the current targets.

Maintain support for the renewable energy portfolio standard of 22.5% of energy
from renewable sources by 2021.