In the last month we have two new and important pieces of information. On March 13, the Department of Energy Resources (DOER) updated the list of projects with a Statement of Qualification (SQA) and NEPOOL-GIS published the 2016 year-end SREC supply figures. Since our last update in SREC-II, the DOER announced that projects lacking an extension from DOER would lose their SQA. However, such projects are allowed to re-apply for an SQA with the understanding of the lower SREC factors. Please see the full presentation of data and analysis here.
Based on the latest information, we see the total installed & operational capacity in SREC-II is 812 MW, with an additional 1,076 MW qualified but not yet operational:
With the year-end figures on SREC-II supply coming in at 556,510 we can better estimate the extent of over-supply for the year. Note that while the supply figures are out for the year, we won’t see the aggregate demand figures for a few weeks still. Using 2015 figures as a proxy, we estimate an oversupply of 282,802 MA16 SREC-IIs:
With such a large surplus of SRECs, we’re certain to see a Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction (SCCA) this summer. Recall that the DOER will accept SRECs until June 15 before initiating the Clearinghouse Auction towards the end of July. During that interval, the DOER will announce the 2018 Minimum Standard, which may increase if the SCCA does not clear by Round 2: