Archive for the ‘SREC Markets’ Category

Maryland Senate overrides Governor Hogan’s veto of the Clean Energy Jobs Act

Posted February 2nd, 2017 by SRECTrade.

Earlier today, the Maryland Senate voted 32-13 in favor of the Clean Energy Jobs Act (SB 921). In conjunction with the similar outcome in the House, this vote overrides Governor Hogan’s veto from last year and increases the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) for the state.

Maryland Carve-Out

Massachusetts DOER Announces Final Program Design for successor to SREC-II

Posted February 1st, 2017 by SRECTrade.

On January 31, 2017 the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) unveiled their final program design for a new solar incentive mechanism following the very successful SREC-II program. The forty-seven slides linked above provide a highly-detailed review. Below, please find a brief summary of pertinent issues. Please keep in mind this information is proposed by DOER. Stakeholders are encouraged to submit comments to DOER.SREC@state.ma.us by February 17.

SREC-II
SREC-II will continue until the new scheme is implemented with reduced SREC-factors (30% of original). Expected fuse left on SREC-II development: through 2017

new_srec-ii_factors
Projects that did not qualify in time for the January 8th deadline will lose their Assurance of Qualification and have to re-apply. New projects may also apply for SREC-II qualification.

Please note that projects 25kW or less will continue to be approved at the 0.8 SREC Factor until the next program begins. The 0.7 SREC Factor for the extension only applies to those projects in market sector A that are over 25kW.

New Program (SMART)
Goal: 1600MW of new solar

Incentive mechanism: Declining Block with payment in the form of Net-metering credits or on-bill credits. Additionally, a buy-all, sell-all rate will be available.

Incentive level: set once through a procurement of 100MW of large (> 1MW) projects. Such large projects will offer into the procurement and the marginal project will set the price for all winning projects. Large projects will have a 20-year payment term. Smaller projects will have their incentive level set by an index relative to the level determined by the competitive procurement described above. Small projects will have a ten-year payment term.

Incentive adders: Depending on location, type of off-taker and the addition of storage to a solar array, a project may earn a higher rate of incentive.

Both the base incentive level and incentive adders will decline 4% per block.

Process: DOER will file an Emergency Regulation which will trigger a 90-day regulatory process including hearings and written comments. Following the Emergency Regulations being implemented, three additional processes will occur: 1) RFP for Administrator of this program 2) RFP for 100MW of new PV (> 1MW only), 3) EDCs jointly file at DPU for cost recovery and approval.

 

Maryland House Overrides Veto of Clean Energy Jobs Act

Posted January 31st, 2017 by SRECTrade.

Today, the Maryland House voted 88-51 to override Governor Hogan’s veto of HB1106, the Clean Energy Jobs Act, which amends the state’s RPS to 25% by 2020. Governor Hogan vetoed the Clean Energy Jobs – Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Revisions Act (SB0921/HB1106) in May 2016, citing concerns about the costs of expanding the program. However, the expanded RPS will allow for the continued growth and success of the state’s renewable energy economy by increasing supply demands and creating new clean energy job opportunities. To address program costs, HB1106 reduces the SACP levels beginning in 2017.

The Senate is scheduled to vote on the override on Thursday, February 2nd. You can support the override efforts by urging the Maryland Senate to override the Governor’s veto and protect the Maryland solar industry. Sign MDV-SEIA’s Override Letter here today. In addition, we encourage Maryland residents and businesses to contact their State Senators in support of SB0921/HB1106. You can find your State Senator here.

SRECTrade will continue to provide updates on the status of the Maryland RPS as we acquire new information. For more information about the Maryland SREC market, please visit our Maryland Market page here. For our latest MD SREC market analysis, see our post here.

DOER Announces Status of Next Generation Incentive Program and SREC-II Bridge

Posted January 24th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

This morning, the DOER provided an update on both the Next Generation Incentive Program and the transition between SREC-II and the new program.

Next Generation Incentive Program

The DOER  will present the final proposal for the design of the Next Generation Incentive Program at a public briefing on January 31, 2017. Per the DOER’s update, the “proposal will be used by DOER as the framework for the regulation to implement the program, which DOER plans to file in the coming weeks.”

SREC-II Transition

Due to the expected timeframe for the implementation of the Next Generation Incentive Program, the DOER is in the process of implementing interim measures to bridge the gap and ensure a smooth transition between SREC-II and the new program. The DOER will provide additional details regarding these interim measures in the January 31st meeting.

Information for the meeting is as follows:

Date: January 31, 2017
Time: 1:00-4:00PM
Location: Federal Reserve Building
Morris Auditorium
600 Atlantic Avenue

Boston, MA 02210

The Federal Reserve Building requires a list of all attendees in advance of the meeting. If you plan to attend the meeting, the DOER requests that you please fill out this form to RSVP by 5:00PM this Friday, January 27, 2017.

Massachusetts SREC-II Update – January 2017

Posted January 23rd, 2017 by SRECTrade.

Over the last month the market received both a new list of SREC-II qualified projects as well as more precise information on Q3 SREC generation. As such, we have updated our capacity models to reflect the new information.

Please find our updated capacity presentation here.

The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) recently published their periodic update on registered SREC-II capacity on December 12, 2016, and Q3 2016 SRECs were issued on January 15th, 2017.  These data points provide more precise information around the current build rates and the exact amount of SRECs currently available for sale, but the data simply confirms the widely known fact that MA16 SREC-II is indeed heavily oversupplied.

Given an oversupply from 2015 of 66,372 SRECs, plus the 441,890 SRECs issued in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2016 (Q3 generation was 190,526), we are left with a total of 508,262 SRECs already created.  That alone leaved the market 49% over the exempt-load obligation for 2016.  Using the trailing twelve month average for new capacity added per month, we add another 143,887 SRECs as an estimate of Q4 production to bring us to a grand total of 652,149 SRECs created in 2016.  This represents a 312,069 SREC oversupply, or approximately 92% of the 2016 compliance obligation.

ma16-srec-ii-sd

We expect the DOER to publish an updated qualified project list in the near future.  Additionally, we expect more information in the coming weeks on the status of the SREC-II extension program.  As either of those updates come available we will be sure to pass on all relevant information.  As always, feel free to reach out to your SRECTrade sales coverage for any questions or comments.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

Urge Maryland Legislature to Override Gov. Hogan’s Veto on RPS Bill HB1106

Posted January 17th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

In May 2016, Maryland Governor Hogan vetoed the Clean Energy Jobs – Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Revisions bill (SB0921/HB1106). This month, the Maryland State Legislature will commence its discussion on overriding Gov. Hogan’s veto and passing into law legislation that would increase the state’s RPS to 25% by 2020. The expanded RPS will allow for the continued growth and success of the state’s renewable energy economy by increasing supply demands and creating new clean energy job opportunities. To address program costs, HB1106 reduces the SACP levels beginning in 2017 as shown below.

 

You can support the override efforts by urging the Maryland State Legislature to override the Governor’s veto and protect the Maryland solar industry. Sign MDV-SEIA’s Override Letter here today. In addition, we encourage Maryland residents and businesses to contact their local representatives in support of HB1106. You can find your local representative here.

2016 SREC Pricing – Year In Review

Posted January 9th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

2016 was a dynamic year in the SREC markets. SREC prices experienced highs and lows. In order to understand and clearly present pricing data, SRECTrade offers a subscription product – Market Insights. Login to your SRECTrade account and get started for free.

Please see the Year in Review video here:

 

Gov. Kasich Vetoes Bill Threatening to Weaken OH RPS

Posted December 28th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Yesterday, Gov. Kasich released his decision to veto Substitute HB554, a bill designed to weaken Ohio’s renewable portfolio standard by converting its compliance standards to voluntary targets for the next three years. The bill, which passed in the Ohio Legislature earlier this month, would follow the state’s two-year RPS freeze, which drastically impacted Ohio’s renewable energy industry, resulting in slow growth and job losses.

Renewable energy and environmental advocates, along with a coalition of Ohio’s business leaders, urged Gov. Kasich to veto the detrimental bill and to focus instead on bolstering the state’s renewable energy economy. Through his veto, Gov. Kasich stood by his position for reinstatement of the RPS, rather than allowing for the GOP to renege on the state’s clean energy goals.

In his veto, Gov. Kasich said that the bill would undermine the state’s progress to date, dealing a “setback to efforts that are succeeding in helping businesses and homeowners reduce their energy costs through increased efficiency” to the tune of “$1.03 billion in savings to date … [and] … $4.15 billion in lifetime savings.” He encouraged the General Assembly to “advance strategies for helping ensure competitive energy costs” and to preserve and expand upon the job growth generated by high technology firms in the renewables industry.

While opponents of the bill hope that Gov. Kasich’s veto sends a message to progress the RPS, the Legislature could override his veto in the next session, which begins on January 9. A three-fifths vote (at least 60 of 99 in the House and at least 20 of 33 in the Senate) would be needed to override the veto. The bill originally passed 56-34 in the House and 18-13 in the Senate.

New Jersey SREC Update – December 2016

Posted December 23rd, 2016 by SRECTrade.

As the calendar year comes to a close, we wanted to take one final opportunity to examine the most recently released solar installation data from the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy. Throughout 2016 the New Jersey SREC market has been profoundly influenced by the implications of the data in these reports. After experiencing the type of price volatility we’ve seen in 2016, our hope is that market participants will welcome some added insight into these numbers and will consider this analysis as they begin to make projections for 2017.

You can find our most recent capacity presentation here.

As of 11/30/2106, the latest NJOCE Solar Installation Report showed an increase of 26.7MW of installed capacity since it was last issued as of 10/30/16.  Almost 20MW of that increase came from reported installations in October and November, with the balance distributed relatively evenly back to June 2015.

  • 10.3MW added in November 2016
  • 9.6MW added in October 2016
  • 4.6MW added July through September 2016
  • 2.2MW added June 2015 through June 2016

**Regular readers of these reports will also notice that a significant amount of capacity was “added” to the period from 2001 to May 2015, although this was simply a reclassification of previously reported capacity in order to improve the accuracy of the information presented. **

Within this report, a trend which we had previously noted has become more clearly defined.  Assuming that the November figure for installed capacity will be revised upward in future reports to a degree similar to the prompt months in prior data releases, we see that the average monthly rate has fallen drastically from the first half of the year to the second.  Through the first six months of 2016, the New Jersey solar market was adding just over 33MW/month.  Assuming the reported November installation number doubles due to future upward revisions, since July that monthly average has now dropped to 20MW/month.  That represents a 40% drop in new installations.

Although there were undoubtedly a range of factors that contributed to this sudden shift, lower SREC pricing almost certainly played a central role in this change of trend.  When extrapolated out into the future, the extremely aggressive build rates observed in Q1 and Q2 of 2016 indicated a market that would very quickly become oversupplied as the pace of development overtook the rate of RPS growth.  This expectation of future imbalance led to a precipitous decline in prices, bringing the NJ SREC spot market down from highs in the $290s to lows in the $200s.  This decline meant developers experienced further difficulty finding adequate funding to support their pipeline of projects.  The consequence has been that many projects that don’t qualify for residential rates of electricity – those projects who would otherwise depend on healthy SREC prices to be economically feasible – simply didn’t get built.  This is clearly apparent when comparing the three month periods ending in July 2016 and November 2016:

julyvsnov

A closer examination of the data reveals another powerful shift in industry trends. Commercial and residential build rates have historically kept a somewhat even balance with respect to one another.  In 2015, commercial and residential capacity made up 41% and 52%, respectively, of total installations in that year.  In the first half of 2016, that balance was 58% and 40%, respectively.  Since July 2016, that balance has now shifted to 23% and 64%.  While the residential market has remained strong, the larger commercial-sized systems have experienced very real difficulty. Again, this shift is not solely due to SREC pricing, but the significant decline in the amount of funding available from the SREC markets undoubtedly played a powerful role.

As always, we want to apply this information to create better informed opinions regarding the future of the market.  The recent slowdown in new installation has further supported the idea that EY2017 will remain fairly balanced in terms of supply and demand.  Across a range of scenarios, 2017 will most likely remain well balanced with a projected oversupply of only 2-3%. Barring a drastic acceleration in new installations, 2018 is also projected to remain fairly balanced.  2019 and beyond, however, take on a much different dynamic.

nj-update-chart

Even under modest growth scenarios, the current RPS can again be overwhelmed by the growth of the New Jersey solar market in a matter of years.  It is important to note that the pricing of all financial products – SRECs included – is determined by a combination of current market conditions as well as expectations of market conditions in the future.  Even though 2017 and 2018 appear to be years of relative balance, a drastic oversupply in the later years of the New Jersey market could easily have an adverse affect on pricing in the near term.  Without some type of legislative amendment to the current state RPS schedule, the New Jersey SREC market could feasibly experience a prolonged period of depressed pricing which would signal a new, harsher economic reality for solar market participants across all segments of solar installation.

It is SRECTrade’s opinion that the market would be best served by proactively supporting any available means of expanding the state’s RPS schedule to account for this future growth.  In order to successfully support the solar market, any such solution will need to focus on the longer term expansion of the SREC program.  There have been several different proposals debated amongst industry participants, all of which have their own merits, but the fact remains that ANY expansion is better than none at all.  If the industry chooses not to take this opportunity to expand the RPS program, developers will face an increasing probability of further market contraction and slower growth.

We will continue to update you with any new data as it becomes available.  Please feel free to reach out to your SRECTrade brokerage coverage with any questions or comments you may have, we are always willing and eager to discuss our analysis with all members of the market.

We wish continued success and happiness to all of our friends and partners in the renewable energy industry, and we look forward to working together again in 2017!

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

Urge Gov. Kasich to Veto HB554 and Revive Ohio’s Renewable Energy Industry

Posted December 16th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Since early November, the Ohio Legislature has been working on bills to address the imminent thawing of the state’s frozen RPS–which has been stalled at 2014 levels for the past two years. Without legislative action, the standards would resume their upward trajectory moving forward, but members of the Ohio Legislature have instead set forth bills that would weaken the RPS and cause even more harm to the state’s suffering renewable energy industry. On December 15, after passing in the Senate and in the House, 18-13 and 56-34, respectively, HB554 was sent to Governor Kasich’s desk for signature or veto. The bill would make the state’s RPS obligations optional for two years (after which they would resume as mandates), ensuring the continued stagnation of the state’s renewable energy economy for another two years.

During the 2014-16 freeze, utility companies reduced–or in some cases completely suspended–renewable energy and energy efficiency programs and services. Clean energy companies had no choice but to leave Ohio. As a result, Ohio’s wind industry lost more than 1,400 jobs in 2015 alone. Today, Ohio’s projected growth for clean jobs is only at 4.9%. In order to get back on track, the industry needs a jolt of support that can only come from the reinstatement (or better yet, a bolstering) of the RPS and Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS).

While proponents of the bill claim that switching the energy standards to optional would reduce costs, opponents of the bill know that optional standards are the functional equivalent of having no standards at all. Senator Cliff Hite, R-Findlay, who represents a district with hundreds of wind farms, knows that optional standards will not work–for the same reason why good coaches don’t have optional practices.

Earlier this year, while seeking the Republication nomination for President, Gov. Kasich told a New Hampshire crowd that he would reinstate the RPS if the legislature attempted to gut the policies. Now, all eyes are on Gov. Kasich to see whether he sticks to his campaign words from January and helps the renewable energy economy get back on the right track. Environmental advocates and opponents of the bill urge constituents to call the Governor’s Office and urge him to veto the bill. You can call his Office today at (614) 466-3555.

The bill hit Gov. Kasich’s desk late on December 15, so he has until midnight on December 28 to veto the bill.