PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of May 2018

Posted June 1st, 2018 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of May 17, 2018.

The Pennsylvania solar renewable energy credit (SREC) market has been through some changes since the fall of 2017. In October 2017, Governor Wolf signed Act 40 into law. On May 3, 2018, the PA Public Utilities Commission entered its final implementation order clarifying that all out-of-state systems previously eligible for the PA SREC market would get stripped of their PA certification and reclassified as PA Tier I eligible generation units. Out-of-state generated credits for generation on or after November 2017 were stripped of their certification and reclassified for the PA Tier I market. Some out-of-state generators may be eligible to temporarily maintain SREC eligibility if their SRECs were sold under a preexisting contract, executed before Act 40 became law. For the generator to maintain eligibility, the contract would have to be signed directly with an EDC or EGS. As of May 17, 2018, the PA PUC decided to stay the decision to implement the process to approve out of state generators to maintain PA SREC certification if in an existing forward contract. Thus, it is still unclear how much capacity will be grandfathered in. This analysis does not consider the implications of the grandfathered supply.

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted (the light and dark blue bars) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the gray bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of April 30, 2018, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,473 MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website here.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2018: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities. If any facilities were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC. The drop of OH capacity from last month represents the assumption that PA-sited systems certified in both OH and PA will now sell in PA due to the recent increase in PA SREC pricing.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement.

DC2018: Includes all facilities eligible for the DC SREC market. If a facility was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Please note that ALL out of state facilities previously certified in PA were stripped of their certification this past month. The number of certified facilities in PA decreased from 1,704.9 MW last month to 319.1 MW this month. You can read more about this policy change here.   Some facilities are still cross-registered in OH.

MD2018: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS. If facilities were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the April 30, 2018 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Facilities Summary

There are 173,944 facilities across 4,441.2 MW registered in PJM GATS as of May 17, 2018.

503 facilities are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 1,961.4 MW or 44.2% of the qualified capacity. There are 104 facilities that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,194.9 MW or 26.9% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

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