The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) recently announced the SREC requirement for the 2012 compliance year. The 2012 compliance requirement is based on a formula that takes into consideration the 2011 compliance obligation, the forecast 2011 total SREC generation, and the actual 2010 SREC generation. A growth rate is then applied to these figures based on a set formula for the MA SREC program. Additional considerations are made for the 2010 Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP) volume, the 2010 banked SREC volume, and the number of 2010 SRECs purchased through Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction. For a detailed analysis of this formula and the considerations made for setting the 2012 requirement please see this link.
Upon running the figures, the DOER arrived at a 2012 compliance obligation of 81,559 MWhs or SRECs. This represents an increase over the 2011 standard by 2,982 SRECs, or approximately 3.8%. After factoring in the estimated load exemptions from the TransCanada settlement, the 2012 compliance year target is approximately 73,400 SRECs. This equals an increase of approximately 10,400 SRECs from the 2011 adjusted target of about 63,000 SRECs. Converting these figures to MW capacity, using a 1.13 MWh production factor per installed kW per year, 2012 will need the equivalent of approximately 65 MW online vs. the 2011 required capacity of approximately 55.7 MW. This step up in capacity represents an increase of 16.6%.
*Note: The 2011 and 2012 estimated megawatts required in the chart above have been adjusted for the impact of the TransCanada settlement.