With the Q4 2017 NEPOOL GIS renewable energy certificate (REC) issuance nearly upon us, we figured it would be a good time to provide an update on the Massachusetts SREC-I and SREC-II markets. The SREC-I market is not subject to any new installed capacity and is capped at 653.3 MW of eligible capacity. The main factors driving supply and demand in the current state of the market are the 1) annual RPS SREC-I compliance obligations, 2) prompt year solar production and any eligible banked or reminted SRECs from prior years, and 3) total electric load served throughout the state. Given current RPS demand, as provided by the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (MA DOER) the 2017 compliance year for MA17 SREC-I is likely to be slightly over supplied by approximately 14,000 SRECs, less than 2% of estimated compliance obligation. For more specific details see our full presentation here. Note, this estimate is still subject to change due to final 2017 electricity supply figures and Q4 2017 SRECs issued. Pricing for MA2017 SREC-Is since the beginning of the year has ranged between $300 and $310, with recent transactions trading at the lower end of the range. Our enclosed presentation also provides a preliminary estimate for MA2018 SREC-I supply and demand. The analysis currently suggests under supply of approximately 85,000 SRECs, a little over 10% of the estimated obligation. Pricing for MA2018 SREC-Is since the beginning of the year for has ranged between $330 and $345, with recent transactions executed around $340/SREC.
With regards to MA SREC-II supply, the market is in the final stages of new solar capacity additions. The program will be capped to any new installed capacity once the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) program is finalized and implemented, expected for late Q2 / early Q3 2018. Recent capacity added has slowed month over month, but continues at a decent pace considering the market is limited to new commercial and reduced SREC factors for all project typees. During the last 6 months of 2017, installed capacity has been 37.2 MW per month on average and 92.1 MW for Q4 2017.
The outlook for the MA2017 SREC-II market is one of oversupply for 2017, with an estimate of more than 186,000 SRECs exceeding the estimated compliance obligation by almost 16%. For more details see the presentation here. Pricing for MA17 SREC-IIs has ranged between $265 and $270 as of late. While 2018 is still subject to capacity additions, the compliance period will also be impacted by the SCCA auction and banked SRECs from 2017 and prior. Our estimated outlook for 2018 is one of slight oversupply, almost equilibrium. Estimates point to over 17,000 SRECs in excess, exceeding the estimated compliance obligation by approximately 1%. Pricing for MA18 SREC-IIs has ranged between $270 and $280 since the beginning of the year.
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