Over the last month the market received both a new list of SREC-II qualified projects as well as more precise information on Q3 SREC generation. As such, we have updated our capacity models to reflect the new information.
Please find our updated capacity presentation here.
The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) recently published their periodic update on registered SREC-II capacity on December 12, 2016, and Q3 2016 SRECs were issued on January 15th, 2017. These data points provide more precise information around the current build rates and the exact amount of SRECs currently available for sale, but the data simply confirms the widely known fact that MA16 SREC-II is indeed heavily oversupplied.
Given an oversupply from 2015 of 66,372 SRECs, plus the 441,890 SRECs issued in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2016 (Q3 generation was 190,526), we are left with a total of 508,262 SRECs already created. That alone leaved the market 49% over the exempt-load obligation for 2016. Using the trailing twelve month average for new capacity added per month, we add another 143,887 SRECs as an estimate of Q4 production to bring us to a grand total of 652,149 SRECs created in 2016. This represents a 312,069 SREC oversupply, or approximately 92% of the 2016 compliance obligation.
We expect the DOER to publish an updated qualified project list in the near future. Additionally, we expect more information in the coming weeks on the status of the SREC-II extension program. As either of those updates come available we will be sure to pass on all relevant information. As always, feel free to reach out to your SRECTrade sales coverage for any questions or comments.
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