Posts Tagged ‘PJM GATS’

New Jersey Capacity Update – Solar Continues to Push Forward

Posted November 28th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

NJ2012 Capacity Update

The New Jersey Office of Clean Energy (NJ OCE) published an updated installed solar projects list as of September 30, 2011. According to the NJ OCE, as of 9/30/11 the Garden State installed 447.7 MW of solar capacity. This equates to more than 20 MW added in the month of September, putting the state at an average of 27.1 MW per month and a total of 108.2 MW installed for the 2012 compliance year to date. NJ OCE estimates for October 2012 expect 44 MW of additional capacity to be installed, bringing total installed capacity to over 491 MW.

Although the NJ OCE reports 447.7 MW installed as of September 30, 2011, PJM GATS currently shows 431.2 MW registered to produce SRECs as of 11/26/11. It is common to see a difference in registered projects between the NJ OCE and PJM GATS reported figures as there is typically a delay from when systems are interconnected and installed to when they receive their NJ state certification number and become registered in GATS.

New Jersey’s 2012 reporting year solar requirement is currently set at 442,000 MWhs. Assuming a production factor 1.2 MWh per installed kW per year, the state needs approximately 370 MW operational all year long. As of 11/26/11, GATS has reported 163,507 SRECs issued through September 2011 generation. October 2011 generation will be issued on November 30, 2011. Given the volume issued through September 2011, approximately 37% of the required volume has been generated. This leaves a need of approximately 278,500 SRECs to meet the 442,000 MWh RY2012 target.

Monthly Capacity Analysis_v2-1

Assuming all NJ solar facilities produce at a 1.2 MWh production factor per kW per year, and all systems noted as installed on the NJ OCE installed project list received generation credit from their first full month of operation, the existing installed capacity of 447.7 MW will produce approximately 338,400* SRECs between October 2011 and May 2012. This additional generation will bring the NJ2012 SREC issuance total to approximately 501,900 SRECs, an excess of 60,000 MWhs. Assuming the October 2012 estimates are accurate, the additional of 44 MW in October creates additional oversupply, equating to a forecast of almost 530,600* NJ2012 SRECs minted and an excess of 88,600 MWh. Both of these scenarios only account for the existing installed capacity through September 2011 and estimates through October 2011. Additional supply will continue to come online through the remaining months of NJ2012, with more capacity anticipated to be pushed through at the end of the 2011 calendar year due to the expected expiration of the federal grant incentive. The additional supply coming online throughout the remaining months of NJ2012 will further impact the long SREC market NJ is facing and have an effect on the 2013 market.

NJ2013 SREC Market

As it currently stands, the NJ2013 (June 2012 – May 2013) Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires 596,000 MWhs of solar generation. This Solar REC requirement equals approximately 496.7 MW to be operational all year long, assuming the NJ2013 requirements are met only using 2013 vintage SRECs. Given the current market, and expected oversupply, the NJ2013 market will start off the year with between 60,000 – 88,600 MWhs already issued and eligible to meet the 2013 requirements. Note, this assumes the September figures and October estimates provided by the NJ OCE are accurate and do not take into consideration any additional capacity to be installed in the remaining months of the 2012 compliance period.

Assembly Bill 4226

Introduced on November 10, 2011, Assembly Bill 4226, sponsored by Assemblyman Upendra Chivakula (District 17), and Assemblyman Daniel Benson (District 14), would implement changes to the current solar RPS requirements. Under the current RPS, the SREC requirements are subject to a 20% increase per year through 2027 should the state meet or exceed its solar requirements three years in a row, while also experiencing a decline in SREC pricing in those same three consecutive periods. The final paragraph of the current format of 4226, states that the 3 year time period would be reduced to 1 year and be applied beginning in the 2013 compliance period.

Should this bill be signed into law, the 20% increase would take effect in 2013. Currently, RY2013 has a requirement of 596,000 MWhs. A 20% increase would adjust the 2013 requirement to 715,200 MWh; equal to an additional 119,200 SRECs required or approximately 99.3 MW operational all year long.

Other solar trade and advocacy groups have actively suggested alternative proposals to the legislation, some of which include a revised SREC requirement schedule as well as a fixed SACP schedule through 2027. We will continue to keep a close eye on the legislative process and provide updates as more information is known and how it will impact RY2013 and future NJ compliance periods.

*This figure uses a PVWatts calculation assuming 1.2 MWh/kW/Year and takes into consideration seasonality for the remaining months left in the compliance period.

Solar Capacity in the SREC States – October 2011

Posted October 27th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: October 2011

The following post outlines the megawatts of solar capacity certified and/or registered to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets SRECTrade currently serves.

A PDF copy of this table can be found here.

Capacity_October2011 (1)

PJM Eligible Systems

As of the end of October, there were 19,403 solar PV and 252 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS) registry. Of these eligible systems, 83 (0.42%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which only 6 systems are greater than 5 MW. The largest system, currently located in New Jersey, is 18.3 MW, and the second largest, located in Ohio is 12 MW. The third largest system, at 11.2 MW, is located in Delaware.

Delaware: The reporting year 2011-2012 requirement for DE equates to approximately 23,340 SRECs being retired. If all retired SRECs were of DE2011-2012 vintage, approximately 19.5 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of October 24, 2011, 22.7 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create DE SRECs in PJM GATS. 11.2 MW of the 22.7 MW currently eligible is from the Dover Sun Park project developed by LS Power. In the 2011-12 compliance year, Delmarva Power has contracted to purchase 9,846 SRECs from the project, of which 7,000 are being held by the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) until 2015-16*. As of this writing, PJM GATS reported the issuance of 6,677 DE2011-2012 SRECs. Additional SRECs from the DE2010-2011 period may also impact the market should there be a demand for these older vintage SRECs.

Maryland: Maryland’s 2011 Solar RPS target requires approximately 32,240 SRECs to be retired. To meet this using only 2011 vintage SRECs, approximately 26.9 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of October 24, 2011, 52 MW of solar capacity was registered to create MD eligible SRECs. 30.8 MW of this capacity was sited in the state of MD. The RPS currently requires electricity suppliers to acquire SRECs from in-state sited solar systems before looking to outside systems. As of this writing, PJM GATS reported the issuance of 19,653 MD2011 SRECs from MD sited systems. There are also MD sited SRECs available from 2010, which could be utilized for compliance needs in 2011.

MD Chart

New Jersey: The New Jersey 2012 reporting year requires 442,000 SRECs to be retired. This equates to approximately 368 MW of capacity being operational all year long. Given the demand for NJ2011 Solar RECs, older vintage SRECs will not impact the 2012 market. As of October 24, 2011, 412.8 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create NJ SRECs in PJM GATS. While this figure represents all projects registered in GATS, there are recently installed projects awaiting issuance of a New Jersey state certification number. This delay results in a portion of installed projects not yet represented in the 412.8 MW figure. As of August 31, 2011 the NJ Office of Clean Energy (NJ OCE) reported that 430.4 MW of solar had been installed in NJ. For more details on the increase in NJ capacity see this post. As of this writing, PJM GATS reported the issuance of 129,441 NJ2012 SRECs.

NJ Chart

Ohio: Ohio’s 2011 RPS solar target requires approximately 45,210 SRECs to be retired by the end of the compliance period. At least 50% of the SREC requirement must come from systems sited in the state. As of October 24, 2011, 27.4 MW of in-state capacity and 54.5 MW of out-of-state capacity were eligible to generate OH SRECs. Additionally, for the year to date, GATS has issued 21,137 in-state and 41,228 out-of-state OH2011 eligible SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior years are also eligible for the current compliance period, which may impact the current year’s requirements.

Pennsylvania: The reporting year 2012 requirement for PA equates to retiring approximately 48,430 eligible SRECs. If all compliance obligations were met using 2012 vintage SRECs, approximately 41.9 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of October 24, 2011, 146.4 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create PA compliant SRECs. As of this writing, PJM GATS reported the issuance of 50,512 PA2012 SRECs. Given the oversupply during previous reporting years, there are also PA2012 eligible SRECs from the 2010 and 2011 reporting years.

Washington, DC: The Council of the District of Columbia and the city’s Mayor signed into law the Distributed Generation Amendment Act of 2011. The amendment increases the RPS solar requirements and closes the district’s boarders from out of district sited systems. The figures displayed above demonstrate the capacity of systems eligible to create DC SRECs moving forward. These figures do not take into consideration the amount of electricity delivered into the district that may be exempt from complying with the increases given some electricity contracts may have been signed prior to the amendment’s implementation. According to GATS, 16,744 DC2011 SRECs have been issued for the year to date. Some SRECs issued in the 2010 compliance period may also be available and can be used to meet the 2011 RPS solar requirements.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of October 24, 2011, there were 1,015 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 991 operational and 24 not operational. Of these qualified systems, 11 (1.1%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which only 3 are between 1.5 and 2 MW. Three of the projects greater than 1 MW are currently operational. Electricity suppliers providing power to the state need to acquire approximately 62,900 SRECs in 2011. Through the Q2 2011 issuance period (10/15/11), 9,499 SRECs have been minted. The Department of Energy Resources (DOER) projects approximately 29,000 SRECs to be generated this year, leaving the market short approximately 33,900 SRECs.

Capacity Summary By State

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in state and out of state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out of State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state. For example, New Jersey needs approximately 368 MW online for the entire 2012 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

*Source: State of Delaware Pilot Program For the Procurement of Solar Renewable Energy Credits: Recommendations of the Renewable Energy Taskforce

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based based on EIA Report “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

Solar Capacity in the SREC States – September 2011

Posted September 26th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: September 2011

The following post outlines the megawatts of solar capacity certified and/or registered to create SRECs in the SREC markets SRECTrade currently serves.

For a PDF copy of this table click here.

Capacity_September2011

PJM Eligible Systems

As of the end of September, there were 18,822 solar PV (18,571) and solar thermal (251) systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS) registry. Of these eligible systems, 81 (0.43%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which only 6 systems are greater than 5 MW. The largest system, currently located in New Jersey, is 18.3 MW, and the second largest, located in Ohio is 12 MW. The third largest system, at 11.2 MW, is located in Delaware.

Beginning of energy year for DE, NJ, and PA

June 1, 2011 marked the beginning of the new energy year for DE, NJ, and PA. All requirements for these markets increase given their RPS solar carve out schedules. SRECs for the month of August, the third creation period for the new reporting year, will be minted at the end of September.

Delaware: The reporting year 2011-2012 requirement for DE equates to approximately 21 MW being online for the entire year or approximately 25,600 SRECs created. As of September 25, 2011, 20.8 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create DE SRECs in PJM GATS. 11.2 MW of the 20.8 MW currently eligible is from the Dover Sun Park project developed by LS Power. In the 2011-12 compliance year, Delmarva Power has contracted to purchase 9,846 SRECs from the project, of which 7,000 are being held by the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) until 2015-16*.

New Jersey: The reporting year 2012 requirement for NJ equates to approximately 368 MW being online for the entire year with a fixed SREC requirement of 442,000 MWhs. As of September 25, 2011, 397.1 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create NJ SRECs in PJM GATS. While this figure represents all projects registered in GATS, there are recently installed projects awaiting issuance of a New Jersey state certification number. This delay results in a portion of installed projects not yet represented in the 397.1 MW figure. As of July 31, 2011 the NJ Office of Clean Energy (NJ OCE) reported that 399.9 MW of solar had been installed in NJ. For more details on the increase in NJ capacity see this post.

Pennsylvania: The reporting year 2012 requirement for PA equates to approximately 44 MW being online for the entire year or approximately 53,000 SRECs created. As of September 25, 2011, 133.4 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create PA eligible SRECs.

Washington, D.C. – Distributed Generation Amendment Act of 2011 Implemented

The Council of the District of Columbia and the city’s Mayor signed into law the Distributed Generation Amendment Act of 2011. The amendment increases the RPS solar requirements and closes the district’s boarders from out of district sited systems. The figures displayed above demonstrate the capacity of systems eligible to create DC SRECs moving forward.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of August 15, 2011, there were 861 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 829 operational and 32 not operational. Of these qualified systems, 11 (1.3%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which only 3 are between 1.5 and 2 MW. Three of the projects greater than 1 MW are currently operational.

Capacity Summary By State

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in state and out of state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in state and out of state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out of State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state. For example, New Jersey needs approximately 368 MW online for the entire 2012 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

*Source: State of Delaware Pilot Program For the Procurement of Solar Renewable Energy Credits: Recommendations of the Renewable Energy Taskforce