Posts Tagged ‘Capacity Update’

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of March 2017

Posted March 15th, 2017 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted.

capacity-update-03-14

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of March 14, 2017 (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational, through the duration of the current reporting year, to meet each market’s RPS targets (the green bar). Note that the Estimated RPS MWs quantity does not take into consideration SRECs eligible from previous reporting years and is only used as an estimate relative to the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. All actual RPS requirements are represented in megawatt hours (i.e. SRECs) required per year. The installed capacity operational over that time will produce SRECs, in addition to any eligible SRECs from previous periods, to end up with the final supply relative to that reporting year’s demand. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of February 28th, 2017, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,062.5MW of nameplate capacity.  Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2017: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement. Some facilities registered in DE are also eligible in PA and could impact that market’s supply.

DC2017: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ or MD sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above.

MD2017: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2017: The balance noted above represents the 2/28/17 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 129,300 facilities across 4,550MW registered in PJM GATS as of 3/14/2017.

471 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 2,223.7MW or 48.9% of the qualified capacity. There are 124 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,547MW or 34% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

 

 

Massachusetts SREC-II Update – January 2017

Posted January 23rd, 2017 by SRECTrade.

Over the last month the market received both a new list of SREC-II qualified projects as well as more precise information on Q3 SREC generation. As such, we have updated our capacity models to reflect the new information.

Please find our updated capacity presentation here.

The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) recently published their periodic update on registered SREC-II capacity on December 12, 2016, and Q3 2016 SRECs were issued on January 15th, 2017.  These data points provide more precise information around the current build rates and the exact amount of SRECs currently available for sale, but the data simply confirms the widely known fact that MA16 SREC-II is indeed heavily oversupplied.

Given an oversupply from 2015 of 66,372 SRECs, plus the 441,890 SRECs issued in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2016 (Q3 generation was 190,526), we are left with a total of 508,262 SRECs already created.  That alone leaved the market 49% over the exempt-load obligation for 2016.  Using the trailing twelve month average for new capacity added per month, we add another 143,887 SRECs as an estimate of Q4 production to bring us to a grand total of 652,149 SRECs created in 2016.  This represents a 312,069 SREC oversupply, or approximately 92% of the 2016 compliance obligation.

ma16-srec-ii-sd

We expect the DOER to publish an updated qualified project list in the near future.  Additionally, we expect more information in the coming weeks on the status of the SREC-II extension program.  As either of those updates come available we will be sure to pass on all relevant information.  As always, feel free to reach out to your SRECTrade sales coverage for any questions or comments.

 

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PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of September 2016

Posted September 29th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted.

PJM CapacityHelv

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of September 23, 2016 (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational, through the duration of the current reporting year, to meet each market’s RPS targets (the green bar). Note that the Estimated RPS MWs quantity does not take into consideration SRECs eligible from previous reporting years and is only used as an estimate relative to the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. All actual RPS requirements are represented in megawatt hours (i.e. SRECs) required per year. The installed capacity operational over that time will produce SRECs, in addition to any eligible SRECs from previous periods, to end up with the final supply relative to that reporting year’s demand. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of August 31st, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 1,871.9MW of nameplate capacity, 139.7MW of which had been installed since the Applied Energy Group’s May 31st report (June-August).  Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found online here on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website, and our most recent analysis of those numbers can be found here. Please note that this analysis includes 15.6MW of estimated installations (final “as-built” applications submitted, but not yet processed).

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2016: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2016: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement. Some facilities registered in DE are also eligible in PA and could impact that market’s supply.

DC2016: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ or MD sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above.

MD2016: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2017: The balance noted above represents the 8/31/16 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 101,215 facilities across 3,430MW registered in PJM GATS as of 9/23/2016.

432 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 1763.9MW or 51.4% of the qualified capacity. There are 101 projects that are 5MW or larger. These make up 32.7% of all qualified capacity, 1,122.1MW total, in PJM GATS.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.