SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: November 2011
The following post outlines the megawatts of solar capacity certified and/or registered to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets SRECTrade currently serves.
A PDF copy of this table can be found here.
PJM Eligible Systems
As of the end of November, there were 20,223 solar PV and 252 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS) registry. Of these eligible systems, 87 (0.42%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which only 6 systems are greater than 5 MW. The largest system, currently located in New Jersey, is 18.3 MW, and the second largest, located in Ohio is 12 MW. The third largest system, at 11.2 MW, is located in Delaware.
Delaware: The reporting year 2011-2012 requirement for DE equates to approximately 23,340 SRECs being retired. If all retired SRECs were of DE2011-2012 vintage, approximately 19.5 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of November 28, 2011, 22.8 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create DE SRECs in PJM GATS. 11.2 MW of the 22.7 MW currently eligible is from the Dover Sun Park project developed by LS Power. In the 2011-12 compliance year, Delmarva Power has contracted to purchase 9,846 SRECs from the project, of which 7,000 are being held by the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) until 2015-16*. As of this writing, PJM GATS reported the issuance of 8,758 DE2011-2012 SRECs. Additional SRECs from the DE2010-2011 period may also impact the market should there be a demand for these older vintage SRECs.
Maryland: Maryland’s 2011 Solar RPS target requires approximately 32,240 SRECs to be retired. To meet this using only 2011 vintage SRECs, approximately 26.9 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of November 28, 2011, 54.8 MW of solar capacity was registered to create MD eligible SRECs. 33.5 MW of this capacity was sited in the state of MD. The RPS currently requires electricity suppliers to acquire SRECs from in-state sited solar systems before looking to outside systems. As of this writing, PJM GATS reported the issuance of 23,439 MD2011 SRECs from MD sited systems. There are also MD sited SRECs available from 2010, which could be utilized for compliance needs in 2011.
New Jersey: The New Jersey 2012 reporting year requires 442,000 SRECs to be retired. This equates to approximately 368 MW of capacity being operational all year long. Given the shortage of NJ2011 Solar RECs, older vintage SRECs will not impact the 2012 market. As of November 28, 2011, 433.2 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create NJ SRECs in PJM GATS. While this figure represents all projects registered in GATS, there are recently installed projects awaiting issuance of a New Jersey state certification number. This delay results in a portion of installed projects not yet represented in the 433.2 MW figure. As of September 30, 2011 the NJ Office of Clean Energy (NJ OCE) reported that 447.7 MW of solar had been installed in NJ. For more details on the increase in NJ capacity see this post. As of this writing, PJM GATS reported the issuance of 163,507 NJ2012 SRECs.
Ohio: Ohio’s 2011 RPS solar target requires approximately 45,210 SRECs to be retired by the end of the compliance period. At least 50% of the SREC requirement must come from systems sited in the state. As of November 28, 2011, 27.7 MW of in-state capacity and 61.3 MW of out-of-state capacity were eligible to generate OH SRECs. Additionally, for the year to date, GATS has issued 23,834 in-state and 47,137 out-of-state OH2011 eligible SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior years are also eligible for the current compliance period, which may impact the current year’s requirements.
Pennsylvania: The reporting year 2012 requirement for PA equates to retiring approximately 48,430 eligible SRECs. If all compliance obligations were met using 2012 vintage SRECs, approximately 41.9 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of November 28, 2011, 152 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create PA compliant SRECs. As of this writing, PJM GATS reported the issuance of 66,243 PA2012 SRECs. Given the oversupply during previous reporting years, there are also PA2012 eligible SRECs from the 2010 and 2011 reporting years.
Washington, DC: DC’s 2011 RPS amended solar target requires approximately 50,270 SRECs to be retired by the end of the compliance period. The figures displayed above demonstrate the capacity of systems eligible to create DC SRECs moving forward. These figures do not take into consideration the amount of electricity delivered into the district that may be exempt from complying with the Distributed Generation Amendment Act increases, considering some electricity contracts may have been signed prior to the amendment’s implementation. As of November 28, 2011, 21.5 MW of capacity was eligible to generate DC SRECs. Additionally, for the year to date, GATS has issued 18,382 DC2011 eligible SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior years are also eligible for the current compliance period, which may impact the current year’s requirements.
Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects
As of November 21, 2011, there were 1,149 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 1,128 operational and 21 not operational. Of these qualified systems, 11 (1.0%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which only 3 are between 1.5 and 2 MW. Three of the projects greater than 1 MW are currently operational. Electricity suppliers providing power to the state need to acquire approximately 62,900 SRECs in 2011. Through the Q2 2011 issuance period (10/15/11), 9,499 SRECs have been minted. The Department of Energy Resources (DOER) projects approximately 29,000 SRECs to be generated this year, leaving the market short approximately 33,900 SRECs.
Capacity Summary By State
The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in state and out of state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out of State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state. For example, New Jersey needs approximately 368 MW online for the entire 2012 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.
*Source: State of Delaware Pilot Program For the Procurement of Solar Renewable Energy Credits: Recommendations of the Renewable Energy Taskforce
Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based based on EIA Report “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.