SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: May 2012
The following post outlines the megawatts of solar capacity certified and/or registered to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets SRECTrade currently serves.
A PDF copy of this table can be found here.
PJM Eligible Systems
As of this writing, there were 25,753 solar PV and 340 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Of these eligible systems, 161 (0.62%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater, of which 16 systems are greater than 5 MW. The largest system, the PSE&G utility pole mount project located in New Jersey, is 25.1 MW, and the second largest, located in New Jersey is 12.5 MW. The third largest system, at 12 MW, is located in Ohio.
Delaware: The reporting year 2011-12 (6/1/11 – 5/31/12) requirement for DE equates to approximately 23,700 SRECs being retired. If all retired SRECs were of DE2011-12 vintage, approximately 19.8 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of June 11, 2012, 28.2 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create DE SRECs in PJM GATS. 11.2 MW of the 28.2 MW currently eligible is from the Dover Sun Park project developed by LS Power. In the 2011-12 compliance year, Delmarva Power has contracted to purchase 9,846 SRECs from the project, of which 7,000 are being held by the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) until 2015-16*. Additionally, the DE SREC Pilot Program solicitation recently closed its first solicitation. As of June11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 27,300 DE2011-12 vintage SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior eligible periods may also impact the market should there be a demand for these older vintage SRECs.
Maryland: The end of February marked the first issuance period of MD2012 SRECs in PJM GATS. As of June 11, 2012, 50.3 MW of MD sited solar capacity was registered to create MD eligible SRECs. 2012 Solar RPS requirements are estimated at 56.1 MW or approximately 67,310 SRECs. MD Governor, Martin O’Malley recently signed into law legislation to pull forward the RPS requirements. As of June 11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 15,800 MD2012 SRECs. Additionally, all out-of-state MD systems are no longer eligible to produce MD certified SRECs and their MD certification numbers have been removed from their systems in PJM GATS. Lastly, there are MD sited SRECs available from prior eligible periods, which could be utilized for compliance needs in 2012.
New Jersey: The New Jersey 2012 reporting year requires 442,000 SRECs to be retired. This equates to approximately 368 MW of capacity being operational all year long, assuming all requirements were met with current vintage year SRECs. As of June 11, 2012, 756.5 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create NJ SRECs in PJM GATS. While this figure represents all projects registered in GATS, there are recently installed projects awaiting issuance of a New Jersey state certification number. This delay results in a portion of installed projects not yet represented in the 756.5 MW figure. As of April 30, 2012 the NJ Office of Clean Energy (NJ OCE) reported that 770.0 MW of solar had been installed in NJ. Additionally, estimates through May 2012 show 802.3 MW of total installed capacity. For more information on the status of the NJ market and information on the expected legislation to adjust the Solar RPS see the following: New Jersey Legislation Update: A2966. As of June 11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 558,400 NJ2012 SRECs. This figure surpasses the current 2012 compliance year requirement of 442,000 SRECs by approximately 116,000 SRECs. Given current installed capacity, we estimate the market will be oversupplied by more than 200,000 NJ2012 SRECs.
Ohio: Ohio’s 2012 RPS solar target requires approximately 95,300 SRECs to be retired by the end of the compliance period. At least 50% of the SREC requirement must come from systems sited in the state. As of June 11, 2012, 49.0 MW of in-state capacity and 89.3 MW of out-of-state capacity were eligible to generate OH SRECs. A large increase of in-state capacity recently came from a 9.8 MW project sited at the Campbell Soup facility in Napoleon, OH. As of June 11, 2012, GATS issued approximately 16,400 in-state and 33,000 out-of-state OH2012 eligible SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior years are also eligible for the current compliance period, which may impact the current year’s requirements.
Pennsylvania: The reporting year 2012 requirement for PA equates to retiring approximately 49,450 eligible SRECs. If all compliance obligations were met using 2012 vintage SRECs, approximately 41.2 MW would need to be operational all year long. As of June 11, 2012, 213.2 MW of solar capacity was registered and eligible to create PA compliant SRECs. As of June 11, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 174,000 PA2012 SRECs. Given the oversupply during previous reporting years, there are also SRECs from the 2010 and 2011 reporting years eligible for the PA2012 compliance period. For an update on HB1580 to increase the Solar RPS requirements, see the following link.
Washington, DC: DC’s 2012 RPS amended solar target requires approximately 61,180 SRECs to be retired by the end of the compliance period. The figures displayed above demonstrate the capacity of systems eligible to create DC SRECs moving forward. These SREC and capacity figures do not take into consideration the amount of electricity delivered into the district that may be exempt from complying with the Distributed Generation Amendment Act increases, considering some electricity contracts may have been signed prior to the amendment’s implementation. As of June 11, 2012, 24.1 MW of capacity was eligible to generate DC SRECs. Additionally, as of June 11, 2012, GATS reported the issuance of approximately 8,600 DC2012 eligible SRECs. SRECs from prior years are also eligible for the current compliance period, which may impact the current year’s requirements.
Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects
As of June 7, 2012, there were 2,213 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 2,184 operational and 29 not operational. Total qualified capacity is 84.4 MW, 74.2 of which is operational and 10.2 MW not operational. Electricity suppliers providing power to the state need to acquire approximately 73,400 SRECs in 2012. 29,017 MWh have been reported to the PTS during January – May 2012. The next issuance period for Q1 2012 SRECs will be on July 15, 2012.
Capacity Summary By State
The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in-state and out-of-state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out of State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state with only that particular compliance period vintage. For example, New Jersey needs approximately 368 MW online for the entire 2012 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement with 2012 vintage SRECs only. SRECs still available from prior eligible periods can also impact the Solar RPS requirements. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.
*Source: State of Delaware Pilot Program For the Procurement of Solar Renewable Energy Credits: Recommendations of the Renewable Energy Taskforce
Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based based on EIA Report updated 11/15/11 “By End-Use Sector, by State, by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.