Changes to PTS SREC Production Reporting to NEPOOL GIS

Posted April 13th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On April 5th the Production Tracking System (PTS) announced that it would update the process for reporting SREC production to the New England Power Pool Generation Information System (NEPOOL GIS). Previously, PTS rounded down production to the nearest MWh before reporting to NEPOOL GIS. This meant that even if a system had produced 1250 kWh (the production amount needed to receive an SREC after the 0.8 factor is applied), the system would not have received its first SREC until it produced 2000 kWh.

This change took effect on the Q4 2017 NEPOOL GIS reporting period (which was due on April 10th). PTS will no longer roll over month-to-month fractional MWh production. Total monthly production in MWh, rounded to the nearest whole kilowatt-hour will be reported to the NEPOOL GIS. For example, if a system produces 1775 kWh in a quarter, PTS will report 1.775 MWh to NEPOOL GIS, whereas previously PTS would have reported 1.0 MWh. The NEPOOL GIS will then apply the SREC-II Factor to the aggregate generation.  NEPOOL GIS will continue to carry-forward the partial SREC due to the SREC Factor.

 

Massachusetts SREC-I and SREC-II Update

Posted April 10th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

With the Q4 2017 NEPOOL GIS renewable energy certificate (REC) issuance nearly upon us, we figured it would be a good time to provide an update on the Massachusetts SREC-I and SREC-II markets. The SREC-I market is not subject to any new installed capacity and is capped at 653.3 MW of eligible capacity. The main factors driving supply and demand in the current state of the market are the 1) annual RPS SREC-I compliance obligations, 2) prompt year solar production and any eligible banked or reminted SRECs from prior years, and 3) total electric load served throughout the state. Given current RPS demand, as provided by the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (MA DOER) the 2017 compliance year for MA17 SREC-I is likely to be slightly over supplied by approximately 14,000 SRECs, less than 2% of estimated compliance obligation. For more specific details see our full presentation here. Note, this estimate is still subject to change due to final 2017 electricity supply figures and Q4 2017 SRECs issued. Pricing for MA2017 SREC-Is since the beginning of the year has ranged between $300 and $310, with recent transactions trading at the lower end of the range. Our enclosed presentation also provides a preliminary estimate for MA2018 SREC-I supply and demand. The analysis currently suggests under supply of approximately 85,000 SRECs, a little over 10% of the estimated obligation. Pricing for MA2018 SREC-Is since the beginning of the year for has ranged between $330 and $345, with recent transactions executed around $340/SREC.

With regards to MA SREC-II supply, the market is in the final stages of new solar capacity additions. The program will be capped to any new installed capacity once the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) program is finalized and implemented, expected for late Q2 / early Q3 2018. Recent capacity added has slowed month over month, but continues at a decent pace considering the market is limited to new commercial and reduced SREC factors for all project typees. During the last 6 months of 2017, installed capacity has been 37.2 MW per month on average and 92.1 MW for Q4 2017.

The outlook for the MA2017 SREC-II market is one of oversupply for 2017, with an estimate of more than 186,000 SRECs exceeding the estimated compliance obligation by almost 16%. For more details see the presentation here. Pricing for MA17 SREC-IIs has ranged between $265 and $270 as of late. While 2018 is still subject to capacity additions, the compliance period will also be impacted by the SCCA auction and banked SRECs from 2017 and prior. Our estimated outlook for 2018 is one of slight oversupply, almost equilibrium. Estimates point to over 17,000 SRECs in excess, exceeding the estimated compliance obligation by approximately 1%. Pricing for MA18 SREC-IIs has ranged between $270 and $280 since the beginning of the year.

Should you have any questions about the enclosed analysis or need transaction and management services, please contact us.

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of March 2018

Posted March 27th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of March 21, 2018.

Notes: Due to the convergence of SREC prices across the DE, MD, OH, and PA SREC markets, methodology for calculating PJM GATS Registered MW figures was updated to represent cross-registration between similarly-priced markets. Please see the additional notes below for more information.

Due to the October 30, 2017 passage of Act No. 40 (see HB118) in Pennsylvania, the PA SREC market borders were closed to all future applications from out-of-state facilities. The PA Public Utilities Commission (PUC) will be determining whether or not to grandfather and protect certain out-of-state facilities already certified under the AEPS. At present, it is unclear what the outcome or timeline of this decision will be. Given the nuances of the law, it is possible that facilities that have existing SREC contracts in place will be allowed to maintain their PA SREC eligibility. This decision will naturally have a large impact on certified capacity in the PA SREC market; as a result, this monthly post considers both decision scenarios in the chart below. Please note that SRECTrade is uncertain of the final capacity that will be PA SREC eligible; the figures below represent all capacity available and all in-state capacity available today. Additionally, eligible SRECs issued in previous compliance periods will have an impact on available supply.

Please also note the additional column for each state added to this month’s capacity update to display the capacity total from the previous month and help illustrate the growth from last month to the present.

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of February 28, 2018, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,422.8MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website here.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2018: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA.

DC2018: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in DE, MD, and OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above. Please note the additional figures for PA In-State systems.

MD2018: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the February 28, 2018 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 171,815 facilities across 5,929.2MW registered in PJM GATS as of March 21, 2018.

602 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 3,246.4MW or 54.8% of the qualified capacity. There are 145 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,981.7MW or 33.4% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

House Economic Matters Subcommittee Votes Against Maryland RPS Bill

Posted March 15th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On Wednesday, March 14th, the Maryland House Economic Matters subcommittee voted against the Clean Energy Jobs Act of 2018 (HB 1453), a bill that would have expanded the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). Among other measures, the bill aimed to increase the state’s RPS solar requirement to 14.5% by 2030 and its total RPS requirement to 50% by 2030; at present, the state’s RPS solar requirement is 2.5% by 2020 and total RPS requirement is 25% by 2020. A majority of the Public Utilities Subcommittee voted for an “unfavorable motion” on the bill.

The bill’s lead sponsor, House Majority Leader C. William Frick (Dem), announced the night of the 14th that he was withdrawing the bill before a full vote of the Economic Matters Committee. The 100% Clean Renewable Energy Equity Act of 2018 (HB 878), a bill designed to raise the state’s RPS to 100 percent by 2035, was also withdrawn on the 14th.

The Clean Energy Jobs Act of 2018 was supported by more than 660 faith groups, environmental organizations, unions, and civic leaders. Proponents of the bill are looking to pass the bill in 2019 after making it an important election issue this year.

For our latest Maryland SREC Market update click here. For more information on the Maryland Clean Energy Jobs Act’s proposal, please view our previous blog post on the topic here.

Illinois Commerce Commission Issues Long-Term Renewable Resources Procurement Plan (LTRRPP) Draft Order

Posted March 12th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On February 26th, the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) issued its Proposed Order of the Illinois Power Agency’s (IPA) Long-Term Renewable Resources Procurement Plan (LTRRPP). A range of issues were raised by stakeholders and commented on by the ICC in the draft order.

The ICC has also made a variety of significant changes to the Draft Plan as it was filed on December 4, 2017. One of the most substantial changes is as follows:

  • Exclusion of IL municipal, rural cooperative, and Mt. Carmel service territories from participation in the Draft Plan. Reasoning behind this includes the fact that these utility groups were not specified in enabling legislation, not included in past Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), and did not contribute to renewable energy funds. Details of the comments from the intervenors and the ICC can be found in Section X on Page 163 of the proposed order.

A summary of other changes can be found below and as outlined in this article from PV Magazine.

  • Ruling on the IL Solar For All program that a minimum floor of 50% of energy savings must be passed on to low and moderate income households by approved vendors.
  • Adjustments to adjacent state requirements’ five public interest category scoring weights, potentially impacting the eligibility of in-state and out-of-state solar facilities.
  • Adjustments in designating brownfields for the funds allocation for solar development in this sector.
  • Reduction of requirements for producing permits in project approval process.
  • Allowances for direct current installations in net-metering and system sizes.
  • Adjustments to true-up payment process for community solar.

There is reportedly one more round of responses by intervenors and the ICC during March before the Final Plan is released on April 3rd. The changes listed above will not be finalized until the Final Plan is released.

For more information on the original Draft Plan or the revised Draft Plan that was filed with the ICC, please view our previous blog posts on those topics in the links provided.

Massachusetts Alternative Portfolio Standard (APS) Webinar Recording

Posted March 7th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

Earlier today, SRECTrade hosted a webinar covering the Massachusetts Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard Program (APS) and the SRECTrade application process for eligible renewable thermal systems.

SRECTrade’s application for the APS Program is now open and can be accessed through the standard SRECTrade online application.

For access to the presentation slides, please click HERE. To view a video recording of the webinar, please click the image below.

We have included a few resources from the DOER website for your reference:

Eligibility Criteria:
Air Source Heat Pump
Ground Source Heat Pump
Solar Thermal
Biomass

Metering Guidelines:
Small Systems
Intermediate and Large Systems
List of Independent Verifiers

This document and recording is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. It or any components may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcast or otherwise exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of this document does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use these materials is granted, a link to the current version of this document on the SRECTrade website must be included for reference.

Massachusetts Alternative Portfolio Standard (APS) Webinar

Posted March 1st, 2018 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade, Inc. is pleased to announce that our online application for the Massachusetts Alternative Portfolio Standard (APS) program is now open. We will be hosting a webinar covering the APS program and the SRECTrade on-boarding process on Wednesday, March 7, 2018 at 2:00pm EST.

This program provides Alternative Energy Credits (AECs) to renewable thermal energy facilities including solar thermal, heat pump, biomass, and biogas technologies. All facilities interconnected after January 1, 2015 are eligible.

To register for the webinar, please click HERE.

For more information on the passage of the APS legislation, please visit our previous blog posts on the topic, “DOER Files Proposed Final APS Regulations” and “DOER Files APS Regulations with Legislature“.

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of February 2018

Posted February 28th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of February 22, 2018.

Notes: Due to the convergence of SREC prices across the DE, MD, OH, and PA SREC markets, methodology for calculating PJM GATS Registered MW figures was updated to represent cross-registration between similarly-priced markets. Please see the additional notes below for more information.

Due to the recent passage of Act No. 40 (see HB118) in Pennsylvania, the PA SREC market borders were closed to all future applications from out-of-state facilities. The PA Public Utilities Commission (PUC) will be determining whether or not to grandfather and protect certain out-of-state facilities already certified under the AEPS. At present, it is unclear what the outcome or timeline of this decision will be. Given the nuances of the law, it is possible that facilities that have existing SREC contracts in place will be allowed to maintain their PA SREC eligibility. This decision will naturally have a large impact on certified capacity in the PA SREC market; as a result, this monthly post considers both decision scenarios in the chart below. Please note that SRECTrade is uncertain of the final capacity that will be PA SREC eligible; the figures below represent all capacity available and all in-state capacity available today. Additionally, eligible SRECs issued in previous compliance periods will have an impact on available supply.

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of January 31, 2018, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,391.8MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website here.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2018: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any systems were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA.

DC2018: Includes all systems eligible for the DC SREC market. If a system was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some systems are cross-registered in DE, MD, and OH as well. If a system was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ sited systems that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above. Please note the additional figures for PA In-State systems.

MD2018: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If projects were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the January 31, 2018 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Projects Summary

There are 169,852 facilities across 5,929.2MW registered in PJM GATS as of February 22, 2018.

596 projects are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 3,233.6MW or 54.5% of the qualified capacity. There are 145 projects that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,978.9MW or 33.4% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

Connecticut DEER Proposes Doubling of State’s RPS

Posted February 16th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On February 8th, 2018, the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) released the 2018 Connecticut Comprehensive Energy Strategy, which calls for a doubling of the state’s Class I Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS) target from 20% by 2020 (and stable thereafter) to 40% by 2030. The change would effectively increase the pace of renewable growth to 2% per year. The proposal acknowledges the likelihood of increased REC pricing due to an RPS increase and, as a counteracting measure, recommends that the state lowers the alternative compliance payment (ACP), which caps the market.

The proposal stresses the need to bolster incentives for zero-emitting technologies such as wind and solar, while phasing out carbon-emitting technologies such as biomass and landfill gas. As a solution, the document briefly proposes a separate carve-out or tier within the RPS to help prop up zero-emitting renewable technologies. This could create a separate REC market with pricing that would likely be more favorable for renewable energy technologies eligible for the carve out. SRECTrade will continue to monitor Connecticut’s renewable policy structure and evaluate its relevance to our clients and partners.

Maryland SREC Market Update – February 2018

Posted February 13th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

With the close of the Maryland 2017 compliance year approaching, we thought it would be relevant to provide an update on where the current market stands, including recent happenings that could impact the future Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements. Click here for our full presentation.

This year started off slightly more positive as the market moved up off its early Q4 2017 lows of about $5.00-6.00/SREC. Recent spot transactions have been ranging between $7.00-7.50/SREC. Additionally, the MD2018 and MD2019 forward markets have trended up into the $8.50-$10.50/SREC range depending on vintage and transaction size. It is likely that a combination of the 2017 compliance year coming to a close as well as standard offer service electricity load auctions taking place in late January had a positive price impact through increasing buy side demand.

Under the current RPS requirements, the MD SREC market is fundamentally oversupplied. Solar build rates remained strong through the end of 2017 and the 100 megawatt (MW) Great Bay project is now registered in PJM GATS. Excluding the Great Bay project, however, the market experienced a 15.7% decline in average MW build per month in the last 6 months versus the last 12 months (through November). Even though the rates per month are declining, the market saw a push of project registrations heading in to the close of 2017, which is typically normal at year end (i.e. excluding Great Bay, 33.9 MW were registered in GATS through November 2017 vs. 26.7 MW through August 2017).

The most meaningful news for the Maryland RPS is the introduction of Senate Bill 732. The bill aims to increase the overall RPS requirements to 50% by 2030 and increase the solar carve out requirements to 14.5% by 2028, with a large step up to 5.5% in 2019. In addition to increasing the MD RPS, the bill also reduces the Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP) for both the Tier I and solar carve out requirements. Summary charts below outline the proposed changes to the solar carve out portion of the RPS, including both RPS % increases and ACP decreases.

The bill had its first reading in the Senate Finance Committee in early February. It is scheduled to be heard in the house (HB1453) on March 5th and then in the Senate on March 6th. As demonstrated in our attached Maryland SREC Update presentation, SRECTrade Maryland SREC Update, the increase in the RPS % under SB732 would allow for Maryland’s solar market to continue to build at rates in excess of current last 12 month averages (i.e. 20.3 MW/month). This would allow the market to develop a variety of project types including larger, utility scale projects that the state has seen over the past few years. While the step up to a 5.5% solar requirement in 2019 is substantial, our presentation does not take into consideration the impact of exempt electric load that would only be eligible under the old RPS schedule given already signed electricity supply agreements. Exempt load would reduce estimated demand in the earlier years of the RPS increase under SB732, but nonetheless the RPS increase would have a substantial effect on increasing the demand for SRECs and solar supply in the state of Maryland.

SRECTrade will continue to track the status of this legislation. In the meantime, please feel free to contact us with any questions.