Archive for the ‘Massachusetts’ Category

MA SREC-II Extension Webinar

Posted December 13th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Earlier today, SRECTrade hosted a webinar covering the current state of the Massachusetts SREC-II program, key deadlines for qualifying systems under SREC-II, and SRECTrade application processes.

The application window is currently open for all MA systems, regardless of size, although qualification deadlines are approaching. Please feel free to reference SREC-II Extension Application Instructions HERE.

For access to the presentation slides, please click here: MA SREC-II Extension Webinar. To view a video recording of the webinar, please click the image below.

This document and recording is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. It or any components may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcast or otherwise exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of this document does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use these materials is granted, a link to the current version of this document on the SRECTrade website must be included for reference.

MA SREC-II Installer Webinar

Posted December 12th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade will be hosting a webinar this Tuesday, December 13th, at 2:00 PM EST. The webinar will cover the current state of the Massachusetts SREC-II program, key deadlines for qualifying systems under SREC-II, and SRECTrade application processes to consider as the program’s close approaches.

To attend the webinar click HERE to register. A recording will be made available on SRECTrade’s blog for those unable to attend.

Massachusetts DOER Updates Exempt Load Figures

Posted November 16th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

On November 14, the DOER updated the exempt load projections for both SREC-I and SREC-II, as well as provided information on the total volume of re-minted SRECs available in the market. These two data points impact the level of demand and expected supply, respectively.

Briefly on SREC-II, the exempt load numbers for 2016 and 2017 increased slightly, which will in turn lower aggregate demand. We already anticipated those markets being oversupplied and with this new data, this assumption strengthens. See our most recent analysis for a deeper dive.

As a follow-up to our recent post on the MA16 SREC-I market, we will incorporate recent data published by the Department of Energy Resources (DOER) and re-examine supply assumptions to provide another view into the recent weakness in the market.

Starting with the demand side of the market, we now project the total market demand for MA16 SREC-I in the range of 807,203 – 832,507, depending on the total amount of electricity sales. Note, the scenario on the left assumes load is down approximately 3% from 2015, while the scenario on the right keeps load flat at the estimated 2015 levels.

2016_11_04_SREC-I_Model

For a more nuanced view on the projected supply for the year, we consider using Q3 and Q4 issued SRECs from 2015 as a proxy for this year. Adding those figures to SRECs already issued in Q1 and Q2 of this year results in an estimated supply of 818,761 for MA16 SREC-I.

With the latest data from DOER, we can now add 50,499 additional SRECs to the supply side. These SRECs are re-minted volumes from past Clearinghouse Auctions that are eligible for compliance on 2016. In sum, we anticipate a total supply of 869,260.

When compared to the range of demand we anticipate the market is long by 4%-8% of demand, or 36,753-62,057 SRECs:

2016_11_04_SREC-I_Model

Factors that could swing the market one way or the other include how much electricity is sold and how much output comes from the installed capacity. Additionally, although the market is potentially oversupplied, it is possible some participants may not bring supply to the market if market prices are lower than their expectations. This could influence price upward to levels we experienced earlier in the year. On the other side, if natural buy-side demand chooses to take a wait and see approach the efficiency of the market can be impacted and influence price downward. The latter has been the case over the past months as the market has moved down on a dearth of natural buy-side demand.

MA16 SREC-I Market Review

Posted November 3rd, 2016 by SRECTrade.

With the October issuance of Q2 2016 SRECs behind us, we are now approximately halfway through the 2016 energy year in Massachusetts. This blog post will take into account observed issuance numbers from the first half of the year and use projections for future issuance periods to understand what caused the fall in MA16 SREC-I prices from $450+ in January to more recent bids of $380. We will look at the supply and demand balance in order to survey what may be coming in the months ahead.

Recall that demand is driven by retail electric sales in the State. The latest data we have comes from 2014, a year in which 48,129,294 MWh were sold. If we assume that retail electricity sales are flat and we apply the obligation of 1.76% and then adjust for exempted load, we derive a total estimated demand of 833,780 SRECs:

MA16 SREC-I Demand

On the supply side of the market, the simplest analysis assumes the market generates nearly 784,000 SRECs and when combined with the re-minted volumes from this year’s SCCA (1,898), then we get a total supply of 785,886. When compared to the demand outlined above, we conclude the market is short nearly 48,000 SRECs.

MA16 REC-I simple supply

What would explain falling prices in a market that is potentially under-supplied? The quick answer is that perhaps retail sales of electricity are falling instead of flat, which would lower the demand. Alternatively, perhaps the supply of SRECs is higher than detailed. We’ll examine some supply scenarios first.

One component of supply is the banked SRECs from prior years. Retail suppliers can bank up to 10% of their annual obligation for use in future years. The maximum volume of banked RECs in the market is estimated at 65,382 – the sum of the total obligation in 2014 and 2015 multiplied by 10%. If all of those SRECs were brought to market in 2016, then we would see the market long by 17,488 SRECs. We see that scenario as unlikely since 2015 was short and the bank may have been used to avoid paying Alternative Compliance Payments (ACPs). On the other hand, it’s possible that between re-minted SRECs from the 2013 and 2014 SCCCA and banked volumes, that upwards of 15,000 SRECs from prior vintages may impact the 2016 market. This source of supply would help to tighten the balance of supply and demand, but not necessarily push to over-supply.

Examining a different scenario on the demand side, even if retail sales were down 3%, the total SREC demand would still sit at 808,414, leaving a tight, yet still under-supplied market based on the simpler supply analysis.

Another element worth mentioning is liquidity. While a healthy market needs liquidity from both buyers and sellers in order to function properly, we will direct our attention to the buy-side. Because there are far more sellers than buyers in this market, an absence of even a handful of buyers is far more impactful to the efficiency of the SREC markets than the absence of an equivalent number of sellers.

In recent months we have observed a noticeably subdued level of activity from buyers. What happens when SRECs are issued and a bunch of sellers come into a quiet market? As evidenced from pricing over the last month, bids start to retreat:

Market_Insights___SRECTrade

A simplistic read of the current state of the market is that prices have dropped due to the possibility of oversupply. However, deeper examination of current supply and demand in SREC-I markets points towards a tighter, more balanced market. The bearish sentiment reflected in recent weeks may actually reflect a lack of activity from natural compliance buyers in the face of a glut of supply coming to market after Q2 issuance. These two scenarios mean very different things for medium to long term “equilibrium” pricing in the SREC-I market. A structural and persistent oversupply, a scenario we do not perceive as likely, would mean that lower prices are justified and here to stay. A mismatch of liquidity due to trading preferences of buyers and sellers however would point towards short term volatility but longer term stability in supportive SREC prices.

As always, we will continue to provide follow-up analysis as more information becomes available.  Feel free to reach out to your contacts on SRECTrade’s brokerage desk with any questions you may have.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

MA DOER Seeking Comments on Next Generation Solar Incentive Straw Proposal

Posted October 25th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

On September 23, 2016, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) presented its Straw Proposal to outline its vision for the next solar incentive program for the state. The DOER is proposing to shift away from the state’s successful SREC program, which has created one of the largest and most robust solar markets in the country.

Under the DOER’s proposal, a declining block feed-in-tariff would be established in regulated utility territories, and a separate program would be created for municipal light districts. Moving away from the current market-based framework will impose a substantial transition burden and introduce new costs to participants. The shift to a completely different program will have a negative impact on the viability of the solar industry in the interim and poses uncertainty moving forward.

Massachusetts has installed more than 1,200 MW of operational solar capacity to date and was ranked 2nd in the nation in total solar industry employment in 2015. Replacing the current market-based framework with a declining block feed-in-tariff will not only be costly to all stakeholders, but it will also fail to satisfy the DOER’s objective to “provide clear policy mechanisms that control ratepayer costs and exposures”. By imposing this new and complicated model, the DOER will force the state’s many market participants to manage, understand, and abide by multiple programs at once. This will undoubtedly increase soft costs and increase administrative burden across the industry.

In contrast, establishing an SREC-III program would allow the state’s solar industry to continue relying on a market-based policy to set incentive levels and forge ahead on its path to a stable, equitable, and self-sustaining solar market. By making adjustments to SREC factors, market sectors, the SCCA and SACP, the Commonwealth can continue to benefit from the successful SREC model and preserve the progress it has made since SREC-I was implemented six years ago.

SRECTrade encourages all stakeholders in the Massachusetts solar market to submit comments in support of a smooth transition to another successful SREC program. Comments can be submitted to the DOER via email at DOER.SREC@state.ma.us and must be submitted by this Friday, October 28th.

Massachusetts SREC-II Update – September 2016

Posted September 26th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

The Department of Energy Resources (DOER) published an updated list of projects with a Statement of Qualification (SQA) on August 25, 2016. Since the last update in July not much has changed in the SREC-II landscape. Expected oversupply still remains the reality reflected in pricing for 2016. Similarly, monthly build-rates are more or less unchanged. The total installed capacity increased 65MW since the last update, bringing us to 573.54 MW. You can find our in-depth analysis here. Below, please find some highlights.

Based on the latest data, there are currently 573.54 MW of operational assets, with an additional 956.87 MW that is qualified, but not operational:

Installed Capacity

Finally, based on current build rates, we continue to see a gross oversupply for the MA2016 SREC-II market:

S, D

Thus far, the market has generated 82,758 MA2016 SREC-IIs and based on current build-rates and installed capacity, we estimate an additional 473,084 SRECs coming later in the year. Adding in the re-minted volumes of 67,046, we see a potential pool of supply upwards of 622,888. Compare that supply figure to the demand side of approximately 327,471 and we conclude the market is oversupplied by 90%. In other words, nearly half of all MA2016 SRECs may find their way to the Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction next year.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

DOER Announces Final 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard

Posted September 1st, 2016 by SRECTrade.

On Wednesday, August 31, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced the final 2017 Solar Carve-out (SREC-I) and Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II) Compliance Obligations and Minimum Standards. This announcement follows the results of the SREC-I and SREC-II Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions.

Notably, this announcement differs greatly from the preliminary announcement in July. In particular, the DOER announced that the final SREC-II Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed prior to May 8, 2016 is 2.0197% (969,635 MWhs), reduced from 2.2960% (1,102,311 MWhs).

Solar Carve-out (SREC-I)

The DOER has determined that the 2017 Compliance Obligation for the SREC-I program will be 783,183 MWh and that the Minimum Standard will be 1.6313%. The 2017 Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed before June 28, 2013 will be 0.9861%. The Determination of the CY 2017 Total Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard, published by the DOER, outlines how this Minimum Standard was calculated.

SREC-I Min Std

Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II)

The DOER has also calculated the 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard for the SREC-II program, which are 1,374,406 MWh and 2.8628%, respectively. The DOER outlined how this preliminary Minimum Standard was determined in its “CY 2017 Calculation of Minimum Standard Guideline”.

SREC-II Min Std

Since all Retail Electricity Suppliers are exempt from additional obligations resulting from the expansion of the SREC-II Program Capacity Cap, the DOER established a baseline Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed on or prior to May 7, 2016. The DOER’s calculation of the Final 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard were similar to its calculation of the Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard (detailed here), but used 825 MW as the capacity that it expects would have been in operation had the SREC-II Program Capacity Cap not been expanded. The DOER used the 825 MW value to reflect its estimate of the generation facilities that would be qualified and operational by the end of the year – a significant reduction from the original 947 MW projection.

Using the 825 MW estimate, the DOER determined a total baseline Compliance Obligation of 969,635 MWhs and a Minimum Standard of 2.0197%. These two figures are significantly less than their counterparts from the preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard, which were 1,102,311 MWhs and 2.2960%, respectively.

SREC-II Obligation Chart

The latest Solar Carve-Out II Qualified Units report (updated on August 25) identified nearly 575 MW of capacity as qualified and operational under the SREC-II program. Comparing the 825 MW figure that the DOER is targeting to the existing 575 MW, the market would need to more than double the Last Twelve Months (LTM) monthly average build-rate (30 MW) to reach that threshold.

For more information on the July announcement of the Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation, please visit our blog post on the topic.

MA DOER Issues Draft Guidelines for Revised SREC-II Market Factors

Posted August 16th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Yesterday, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced its draft Guidelines relating to the revised SREC factors for the Solar Carve-out-II program. The draft Guidelines can be found on the DOER’s website, which includes the Adjusted SREC Factor Guideline Draft as well as draft versions of the 225 CMR 14 Solar Guideline – Extension Guideline and Detailed Construction Costs Form. The draft Guidelines follow the July 1, 2016 promulgation of the Emergency Regulations. As the DOER explains, “Recognizing that a long-term sustainable solution will take time to develop and that many projects are in advanced stages of development, the emergency regulation is intended to address market uncertainty and establish a smooth transition from SREC-II to the next incentive program.”

The draft Guidelines contain both clarification on construction timeline extensions and the revised SREC factor guidelines. For construction extensions, as provided in 225 CMR 14.05(9)(s)(4), a qualified Solar Carve-out II Renewable Generation Unit that is larger than 25 kW DC that has not received the authorization to interconnect or permission to operate by January 8, 2017, and cannot demonstrate that it is mechanically complete by January 8, 2017, can request a construction deadline extension to May 8, 2017. Extensions will be provided if a project can demonstrate to the satisfaction of the DOER that the project has expended at least 50% of its total construction costs by January 8, 2017.  The 225 CMR Solar Guideline – Extension Guideline sets forth the procedures and requirements for Solar Carve-Out II Renewable Generation Units that seek this extension. The draft Guideline also includes an Excel Spreadsheet and Attestation Form to be completed and submitted to the DOER.

The new SREC factors, as provided for by 225 CMR 14.05(9)(l)5, shall apply to any Solar Carve-out II Renewable Generation Unit that meets the following criteria:

  1. Nameplate capacity less than or equal to 25 kW and authorized to interconnect after January 8, 2017; or
  2. Nameplate capacity greater than 25 kW that receives an extension pursuant to 225 CMR 14.05(9)(s)4.a.

The Adjusted SREC Factor Guideline provides new SREC Factors for each SREC Market Sector. Under the revised Guideline, all projects that meet the criteria outlined above shall receive an SREC Factor that is reduced by approximately 15-20% from current values. A comparison of the current SREC Factors and the revised SREC Factors is provided below:

Screen Shot 2016-08-16 at 5.13.34 PM

 

Screen Shot 2016-08-16 at 5.13.42 PM

The DOER invites comments on the draft Guidelines through August 22, 2016 at 5:00PM. Comments can be sent to DOER.SREC@state.ma.us with the subject line “SREC-II Guideline Comments”.

Additional information concerning the SREC-I & SREC-II markets in Massachusetts can be found on our Massachusetts market page.

MA DPU Establishes Net Metering “Notification Date” as September 26, 2016

Posted August 3rd, 2016 by SRECTrade.

On July 29, 2016, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (the “DPU”) issued its Order Announcing Notification Date and Directives to Distribution Companies in its proceeding under 16-64-D, establishing the Net Metering “Notification Date” as September 26, 2016. Pursuant to Chapter 75 of the Acts of 2016D.P.U. 16-64-C, and as confirmed by this Order, there are three strict criteria that must be met for a private net metering project to receive net metering credits under the old regime:

  1. Submission of an Application for Cap Allocation (ACA) to the Massachusetts System of Assurance of Net Metering Eligibility (System of Assurance) for a net metering cap allocation prior to the Notification Date of September 26, 2016 by 2:00pm;
  2. Receipt of confirmation from the System of Assurance Administrator that the application (ACA) is complete; and
  3. Receipt of a ACA cap allocation by January 8, 2017.

In its Order, the DPU determined that “the best option to result in a smooth transition to a stable and equitable solar net metering market” was to align the timing for transition to the new net metering credits policy with the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER)’s SREC-II program. In selecting September 26, 2016 as the “Notification Date”, the DPU calculated the maximum amount of time that could be required to obtain a cap allocation on or before January 8, 2017, which was determined to be 70 business days. In addition, the September 26 date is exactly 60 calendar days after the Order’s announcement of the Notification Date. In consideration of these two timelines, the DPU determined that this date would provide enough time for systems to plan for, apply for, and receive a net metering cap allocation under the existing framework.

For more information on the current and new net metering regulation in the state of Massachusetts, please visit our previous blog post on the topic.

MA DOER Announces Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction Results

Posted July 29th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Today, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced that both of the 2015 Solar Carve-out (SREC-I) and Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II) auctions have fully cleared in the first round.

Preliminary results for the SREC-I auction included 41 unique bidders submitting a total bid volume of 49,886 – more than sufficient demand to clear the available auction volume of 1,898 SRECs. Similarly, the results for the SREC-II auction included 9 unique bidders submitting a total bid volume of 112,252, which cleared the available auction volume of 67,046 SREC-IIs.

SCCA Auction Results3

The DOER and EnerNOC continue to certify and finalize the auction results, and will publicize more details on the final results on the SREC-I and SREC-II auction webpages next week.