The California Air Resources Board (CARB) published Q2 2023 data for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) today. Consistent with trends dating back to 2021, low carbon fuel producers generated 1.6M more credits than deficits, pushing the cumulative credit bank to over 18M credits.
Record Credit Generation
More credits were generated in Q2 (5.5M) than in any previous quarter of the program, led by increases from the largest credit sources: renewable diesel (14%), renewable natural gas (28%), and electricity (7%). Two key trends underpin the consistent growth in net credits: 54% of diesel sold in CA last quarter came from renewable feedstocks while the average carbon intensity (CI) of renewable natural gas fell to its lowest mark of -131 g/MJ.
There was also a 50% increase in credits from alternative jet fuel (also referred to as sustainable aviation fuel) which still represents less than 1% of all credits. Meanwhile, there were modest declines in credits from ethanol (-11%), propane (-11%), and biodiesel (-5%).
EV Credits Rebound
Credits from EV charging bounced back from a quarterly decline in Q1, driven by increases in both light-duty (12%) and heavy-duty (11%) on-road EV charging. Residential EV charging still made up about half of all EV credits, ahead of forklifts (23%) and on-road EVs (18%). Credits from DC fast-charging infrastructure rose by about 12%. Overall, EVs are the second largest source of credits, representing about one-quarter of all credits in the program.
Credit Prices Hover Above Six-Month Low
LCFS credit prices closed October around $68/credit, up slightly from six-month lows in September following CARB’s publication of a regulatory document which hinted at major program changes including the strengthening of CI targets and limitations on biomethane crediting. CARB is expected to publish its final proposal by December, which triggers a 45-day public comment period before the governing board can approve rule changes.Tweet